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#14 UVA hosts #12 Duke on Wednesday
By: Dave Schoenholt - StatFox
Published: 2/15/2017  at  11:03:00 AM
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DUKE BLUE DEVILS(20-5)

at VIRGINIA CAVALIERS (18-6)

John Paul Jones Arena – Charlottesville, VA
Tip-off: Wednesday, 9:00pm ET
Line: N/A

#12 Duke visits Charlottesville on Wednesday night, looking to push struggling #14 Virginia further down in the ACC standings.

#12 Duke will be gunning for its fifth straight win while #14 Virginia will be looking to avoid losing four of its past six when the Blue Devils and Cavaliers take the floor at John Paul Jones Arena on Wednesday evening. Coach Tony Bennett’s Cavaliers return from a gut-wrenching, double-overtime defeat at the hands of cross-town rival Virginia Tech (80-78, UVA -5) on Sunday. The Cavaliers now have the daunting task of returning home (10-2, 6-4 ATS) to face the scorching hot Blue Devils. Virginia has at least won its past four home games (3-1), including a 71-55 (UVA -6) win over #4 Louisville on Feb. 6. Coach Mike Krzyzewski’s Blue Devils are surging up the ACC standings after taking down arch-rival North Carolina (86-78, Duke -3) and Clemson (64-62, Duke -11) at home last week. The Blue Devils will be going for their sixth win in a row on Wednesday night, and sit tied with the Cavaliers at 8-4 in conference play, just a game out of first place. Duke has won its last two road games (at Notre Dame, at Wake Forest) at the end of January, but had been 0-3 on the road in ACC play until that point and 0-2 against ranked teams on the road until beating Notre Dame on Jan. 30. Overall, Duke is 3-3 (2-4 ATS) on the road this season. Duke is 10-14 ATS on the season and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games. Virginia is a healthy 14-8 ATS on the season (6-4 ATS at home). In total trends, the Over in Virginia games is 2-0-1 in the Cavaliers’ last three. Sunday’s double overtime loss was the first time the Over won in a Virginia game where the total was higher than 132. The Under is 5-2-1 in the last eight games at John Paul Jones Arena. For Duke, the Over is 8-3-1 in its last 12 games, including an 8-1 stretch between Dec. 31 and Jan. 30. The Under for Duke, however, is 3-0 in the Blue Devils last three (since Feb. 4). The last time the Blue Devils and Cavaliers met, Duke G Grayson Allen (15.9 PPG, 4.0 APG) flipped in an off balance, buzzer beating game winner off the backboard in Cameron Indoor Stadium for a 63-62 win (Duke -3), almost one year ago. Duke is 8-2 (3-7 ATS) against Virginia since Feb. 2010 and 3-2 (3-2 ATS) in Charlottesville in that span. The Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings between Duke and Virginia.

Virginia led for almost the entirety of regulation on Sunday, but a Hokies tip-in with a second left sent the game into overtime in Blacksburg. The Cavaliers were again in position to win in overtime, but a potential go-ahead layup by senior G London Perrantes (12.6 PPG, 3.9 APG) took a bizarre bounce, literally getting stuck on the back of the rim, resulting in a jump ball and Virginia Tech possession. Virginia’s tops-in-the-nation defense (55.1 PPG) allowed 80+ points for just the second time all season, and now welcomes one of the most talented offensive teams in the nation to town. While pace, as always, certainly factors into the Cavaliers’ gaudy defensive numbers, Virginia does hold opponents to a stingy 39.4% FG clip (17th in NCAA), but has allowed 10 of 13 ACC opponents to shoot better than 40% from the field. While the Cavaliers don’t jump off the page as a good rebounding team or offensive team (288th in NCAA in rebounds, 257th in scoring offense), remember it’s all about efficiency and pace for Coach Bennett’s team. Virginia only allows 28 rebounds per game (2nd in NCAA) and is 46th in rebounding margin (5.1). Meanwhile, the Cavaliers are eighth in the country in FG% (49.2%) and 34th in points per possession (1.15). In Virginia’s last two home games, they’ve outrebounded their opponents 75-41, and Duke has struggled on the boards recently. The aforementioned senior, Perrantes, is Virginia’s only double-figure scorer. Taking on more of an offensive load has hurt Perrantes from deep, as his percentage from beyond the arc is down almost 10 percent from last season. Perrantes is averaging 16.3 PPG over his last four games (all in double-figures), however. Keep an eye on freshman guard duo Kyle Guy (7.8 PPG, 48.5% 3PT) and Ty Jerome (3.6 PPG). Both played sparingly to start the year, but are considered Virginia’s backcourt of the future. Guy has outings of 14 and 12 points in two of his last three games, while Jerome is averaging 8.3 PPG (11-for-22 3PT) over his past six games with additional minutes. F Isaiah Wilkins (7.6 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 1.5 BPG) is always a treat to watch if you like hustle and lockdown defense. Wilkins had 13 points, 11 rebounds and five blocks in the Feb. 6 win over Louisville.

For Duke, one can trace their success over the last five games to exploiting the three-point arc. The Blue Devils have shot it better than 42% from deep in four of their last five games (39% in the win over Wake Forest on Jan. 28) and held each of their last five opponents to 33% 3PT or worse. Virginia is 20th in the country from deep, but Duke held the Cavaliers to 2-11 3PT in last season’s victory. The Blue Devils got 15 points, seven rebounds, seven assists and a game-winner from Grayson Allen last season against Virginia, and Allen is starting to find his groove again with games of 19+ points in four of his last five contests. G Luke Kennard (20 PPG, 52.7 % FG, 45.9% 3PT) has led Duke’s offense this season but was just a bit player against Virginia last year (going scoreless on one field goal attempt). The southpaw sharpshooter has at least one made three in every single Blue Devils game this season and carried Duke with 25 points (20 in the second half) in an ugly win over Clemson on Saturday. (No other Blue Devil was in double-figures.) Included in those single-figure sub-par outings on Saturday was freshman star F Jayson Tatum (15.6 PPG, 7.0 RPG). Tatum, however, did his damage against archrival North Carolina with a well rounded 19-point, nine-rebound and five-assist effort. While Duke has a solid scoring defense (68 PPG), they have been exploited in ACC play (especially on the interior) where the Blue Devils allow 48.4% FG on the season from inside the arc. Eight of Duke’s last 10 foes have shot 43% FG or better. Duke desperately needs struggling senior F Amile Jefferson (11.3 PPG, 9.1 RPG) to return to early-season form. Jefferson hasn’t recorded a double-double since Dec. 10.


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