StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

Blazers host Celtics on Thursday night
By: Sam Chase - StatFox
Published: 2/9/2017  at  1:10:00 PM
  Print This Article    

BOSTON CELTICS (33-19)

at PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS (23-30)

Tip-off: Thursday, 10:30 p.m. ET
Line: Portland -1.5, Total: 219.5

Can the Celtics rebound one night after an embarrassing loss to the Kings?

The Celtics were scheduled to play a basketball game in Sacramento on Wednesday night, but all available evidence suggests that they failed to show up altogether in a 108-92 loss to the Kings (SAC +8.5). Playing a Sacramento team that was without star C DeMarcus Cousins, Boston shot only 39.7% from the floor while allowing their opponents to shoot 50%. The Celtics remain second in the Eastern Conference standings at 33-19 (26-24-2 ATS), holding a two-game lead over both the Wizards and Raptors. They have no time to dwell in their misery after losing to the Kings, as they head to Portland for the second leg of a back-to-back on Thursday. The Trail Blazers last saw the court on Tuesday night, stunning the Mavericks in Dallas with a thrilling 114-113 victory (DAL +3). The win improved their record to 23-30 on the year (22-31 ATS), good for ninth place in the West and only half a game back of the No. 8 Nuggets. Over the last five seasons, teams that allowed at least 105 points in their last game (BOS) are 46-25 ATS against teams coming off a road win of three points or less when the line is between +3 and -3. In the same timeframe, games involving one team that has allowed at least 100 points in four straight games (BOS) and a team coming off a win of three points or less are 56-32 Under against the total. SG Avery Bradley remains out for Boston, while Portland SG Evan Turner will be out for six weeks after breaking his hand on Tuesday.

The Celtics have been tremendous on offense this season, ranking seventh in the league with an offensive efficiency rating of 111.7 points scored per 100 possessions. Things are less impressive on the defensive end of the court, where they are 19th with a defensive efficiency rating of 109.3. They play the league’s 18th-fastest pace at 96.1 possessions per 48 minutes. The story of the Celtics’ season—and one of the best in the NBA—is that of PG Isaiah Thomas (29.8 PPG, 6.4 APG). Notoriously undersized, Thomas has been demolishing opponents late in games with an unprecedented 10.6 points per fourth quarter. He is second in the league in scoring and fifth in usage rate (33.1) while still maintaining the fifth-best shooting percentage of any point guard in the league (46.7%). In 36 games, Bradley (17.7 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 1.3 SPG) is the team’s second-leading scorer and leading rebounder—in addition to being an elite perimeter defender—so his absence has been felt profoundly. SF Jae Crowder (14.0 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 1.1 SPG) has picked up some of the scoring slack, but only scored four points on 0-for-6 shooting against Sacramento. C Al Horford (15.0 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 5.2 APG, 1.7 RPG) has not exactly been the interior presence some fans had hoped, but he has excelled in stretching the floor and facilitating motions on offense. PG Marcus Smart (10.0 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 4.6 APG, 1.5 SPG), PF Amir Johnson (6.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG) and rookie SF Jaylen Brown (5.6 PPG) do lots of dirty work, while C Kelly Olynyk (8.7 PPG, 4.5 RPG) spaces the floor well.

Portland is abhorrent when playing defense, ranking fourth-from-last in the NBA with a defensive efficiency rating of 112 points allowed per 100 possessions. Their offense is much better, though, ranking 12th with an offensive efficiency rating of 109.7. They play a fairly upbeat brand of basketball at 97 possessions per 48 minutes, 12th-most in the league. SG C.J. McCollum (23.5 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 3.6 APG, 1.1 SPG) is following a 2015-16 breakout season with an even bigger breakout this year, and his performance against the Mavericks serves as a great example of the type of difference he’s made. He scored 32 points on 21 shots and, more importantly scored the team’s last seven points in the tight game, including the game-winner with 0.9 seconds left. His heroics probably reminded many of those that his teammate, PG Damian Lillard (26.0 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 5.8 APG) has performed time and time again during his career in Portland. Lillard is seventh in the league in scoring this season, an accomplishment that could not prevent him from yet another All-Star snub. He has now scored exactly 29 points on 22 shots in back-to-back games. While Turner (9.7 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 3.8 APG) perhaps hasn’t lived up to the hefty contract he signed in the offseason, his ability to make a difference in all aspects of the game will be missed. That means wing players like SF Maurice Harkless (10.6 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 1.1 SPG) and SG Allen Crabbe (10.6 PPG) will have to do more than just score. C Mason Plumlee (11.1 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 4.0 APG, 0.9 SPG, 1.2 BPG) is one of the league’s best passing centers and a solid defender, as well. SF Al-Farouq Aminu (7.7 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 1.0 SPG) plays about 29 minutes per game in the frontcourt, while PFs Meyers Leonard (5.5 PPG, 3.2 RPG) and Ed Davis (4.1 PPG, 5.1 RPG) each play about 15.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: