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Bulls, Warriors clash in Oakland Wednesday
By: Sam Chase - StatFox
Published: 2/8/2017  at  10:51:00 AM
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CHICAGO BULLS (26-26)

at GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (43-8)

Tip-off: Wednesday, 10:30 p.m. ET
Line: Golden State -13.5, Total: 222

No one wants to play the Warriors when they’re coming off a loss, but that’s exactly the matchup awaiting the Bulls tonight.

The Chicago Bulls won for the third time in four games on Monday night, leading by as much as 27 points before barely holding on to a 112-107 victory in Sacramento (CHI +4.5). The win got Chicago back to .500 at 26-26 (26-26 ATS), a record currently good for seventh in the Eastern Conference, 3.5 games behind the sixth-place Pacers and two games ahead of the eighth-place Pistons. The Bulls get every East team’s least favorite game of the year on Wednesday night, as they’ll play the third game of their Western Conference road trip in Oakland against the Warriors. After winning five straight, Golden State will be playing the rare game coming off of a loss on Wednesday, as they most recently lost 109-106 in Sacramento on Saturday (SAC +14.5). At 43-8 (24-25-2 ATS), the Warriors hold a nice four-game cushion atop the West standings and are on pace for 69 wins. Over the last five seasons, teams that have allowed at least 105 points in three straight games (GSW) are 76-40 ATS against teams coming off a win of six points or fewer. On the other hand, favorites outscoring their opponents by at least three points per game that have put up a combined score of at least 215 points in three straight games (GSW) are 35-64 over the same time frame. Star SF Jimmy Butler is questionable for Chicago on Wednesday night. C Zaza Pachulia and PF David West remain out for Golden State, while PF Draymond Green is questionable and SG Klay Thompson is probable.

The Bulls are 17th in the league with an offensive efficiency rating of 107.7 points scored per 100 possessions, and they are ninth with a defensive efficiency rating of 107.2 points allowed per 100 possessions. Averaging 94.8 possessions per 48 minutes, they play at the eighth-slowest pace in the NBA. Butler (24.6 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 4.8 APG, 1.8 SPG) has sat out the last two games, and will likely be a game-time call on Wednesday. As should go without saying, whether or not he plays will have a tremendous impact on the Bulls’ game plan. His PER of 25.7 is 12th in the NBA and nearly six points better than anyone else on the roster. He’s 12th in the league in scoring, third among small forwards in assists and second among SFs in steals. However, he only has the 29th-highest usage rate in the NBA (27.1), while aging teammate SG Dwyane Wade (19.1 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 3.9 APG, 1.6 SPG) is 11th in that category (30.0). Wade is still great—his 19.9 efficiency rating is fifth among all shooting guards in the NBA, but it is odd that he has been doing a bit more than Butler. He was phenomenal in the Sacramento victory, scoring 31 points—11 in the last eight minutes—on 12-of-18 shooting. Wade’s usage rate is 37.3 when Butler’s off the court, which would be second highest in the league if projected over the season thus far. With Butler out, PG Michael Carter-Williams (8.8 PPG, 4.8 RPG) has been back in the starting lineup and, surprisingly, has been great. He had 21 points on 8-of-12 shooting against the Kings. Second-year PG Jerian Grant (5.6 PPG) played a season-high 35 minutes in that game and scored 13 points. PF Taj Gibson (11.7 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 1.0 BPG) and C Robin Lopez (9.6 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 1.6 BPG) are consistent contributors as starters in the frontcourt.

Unsurprisingly, the Warriors lead the league in offensive efficiency rating (116.5) and defensive efficiency rating (103.9). They average 100.6 possessions per 48 minutes, and only the Nets play a faster pace. Since the calendar turned over to 2017, PG Stephen Curry (25.6 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 6.4 APG, 1.7 SPG) has started to look like the two-time MVP that he is. He’s on a sixteen-game streak of scoring at least 20 points, the longest such run of his career. In January, he averaged 27.8 PPG and shot 43% from three, and after shooting 22-of-39 from deep in three games this month, he is up to 42.3% on the year. That’s seventh best in the NBA, which is remarkable considering he spent most of the season below 40%. With Steph playing like this alongside SF Kevin Durant (25.8 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 4.8 APG, 1.1 SPG, 1.7 BPG), it’s hard to imagine the Warriors. (Of course, the Kings just did, and the Heat beat them several games ago.) Curry’s red-hot January didn’t seem to slow Durant any, as KD averaged 27.4 PPG on 56.5% shooting in the month. As we must mention every time we profile the Warriors, Durant is 10th in the league in shooting percentage, a remarkable number considering the high volume with which he shoots. Thompson (21.4 PPG, 3.9 RPG) is shooting 40.3% from long range, and he is fifth in the league with 3.1 threes made per game. (Curry is first at 4.2). Green (10.5 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 7.4 APG, 1.9 SPG, 1.5 BPG) took a beating to his knee and tailbone against the Kings, so it remains to be seen if he’ll give it a go on Wednesday. He’s the catalyst of the offense (second only to LeBron James in assists among forwards) and once again a candidate for defensive player of the year. The absences of Pachulia (5.9 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 1.0 SPG) and West (4.1 PPG, 2.7 PPG) weakens the interior presence of a team that is already shorthanded in the paint, and it means C JaVale McGee (5.8 PPG) starts. He has only been playing about 15 minutes per game, though.


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