Tip-off: Monday, 9:30 p.m. ET
Line: San Antonio -3, Total: 202.5

The Grizzlies have their eye on the No. 5 seed out West, but the Spurs present a big challenge.

The Spurs won their third straight game on Saturday, blowing by the Nuggets 121-97 at home to easily cover a 13-point spread. It was head coach Gregg Popovich’s 1,128th victory with San Antonio, and with it he passed Jerry Sloan for most career wins with a single team in league history. San Antonio is now 39-11 (30-19-1 ATS), 3.5 games back of the first-place Warriors and 4.5 games up on the third-place Rockets. They’ll get back on the court in Memphis on Monday night for a divisional tilt with the Grizzlies. After a 107-99 win at Minnesota on Saturday (MEM +4.5), they’ve won four of their last five. The Grizz are sixth place in the Western Conference at 31-22 (27-26 ATS), and seemingly poised to surpass the fifth-place Clippers, who are without Chris Paul for several weeks and lead Memphis by a game. Since 1996, teams coming off a game in which they made at least 55% of their shots (SAS) are 15-41 against spreads between +3 and -3 in games involving two teams allowing shooting percentages between 43.5% and 45.5% at least 42 games into the season. On the other hand, teams coming off of home wins of at least 10 points (SAS) are 31-9 ATS over the last five years against teams coming off of upset wins as road underdogs when the line is between +3 and -3. C Pau Gasol (11.7 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 2.7 APG, 1.2 BPG) has missed nine games with a broken hand and will likely not return to the floor until after the All-Star Game.

The Spurs are brilliant on both ends of the floor, ranking fourth in the league in offensive efficiency rating (113.3 points scored per 100 possessions) and second in defensive efficiency rating (104.1 points allowed). Averaging 94.6 possessions per 48 minutes, they play the fifth-slowest pace in the NBA. Their star on both ends of the floor is SF Kawhi Leonard (25.3 PPG, 5.8 RPG, 3.3 APG, 1.8 SPG), who figures to once again be in the league’s MVP conversation at season’s end. He has had an underwhelming 19 points in each of his past two games, but had 36 in a win over Oklahoma City last Tuesday. He is much more than a scorer, though—in each of his past two, he has at least six rebounds, five assists, two blocks and two steals. PF LaMarcus Aldridge (17.5 PPG, 7.1 RPG, 1.1 BPG) sat out against the 76ers last Thursday, and he only had 12 points against the Nuggets. Knee soreness has been an issue, but he scored 2.5 more points per game in January than he did in December. His 17.5 points per game are his fewest since his rookie season in 2006-07. SG Danny Green (7.5 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 1.0 SPG, 0.74 BPG) is back up over 40% from three this season (40.2%) after struggling immensely last year (33.2%). He also is tied for first among NBA shooting guards in blocks. He shares SG minutes with Manu Ginobili (8.1 PPG, 1.2 SPG), and PGs Tony Parker (11.1 PPG, 4.7 APG) and Patty Mills (10.1 PPG, 3.3 APG) take turns running the show. C Dewayne Dedmon (5.0 PPG, 5.8 RPG), PF David Lee (7.2 PPG, 5.5 RPG) and even rookie SF Davis Bertans (4.3 PPG) see increased minutes in Gasol’s absence.

Memphis is stifling on defense, ranking fifth in the NBA in allowing only 105.9 points per 100 possessions. On offense they come in 20th with an efficiency rating of 107 points scored per 100 possessions. They play even slower than San Antonio, averaging only 92.7 possessions per 48 minutes. C Marc Gasol (21.0 PPG, 6.0 RPG, 4.2 APG, 1.0 SPG, 1.5 BPG) is everything you could want in a center—He defends the rim, scores in the paint, passes out of the post—and more: After never shooting more than 0.2 three-pointers per game in a season, Gasol is shooting 3.7 and making 40.8% of them. While he’s rebounding at a career-low rate, the Grizzlies’ rebounding differential has improved from -1.6 last year to +0.6 this year. He scored 31 points in 42 minutes against the Thunder on Friday night and, not coincidentally, sat out against the Wolves the next night. Without its leading scorer, the team got a huge performance in that game from PF JaMychal Green (9.1 PPG, 5.6 RPG), who scored a career-high 29 points on 8-of-11 shooting. PG Mike Conley (19.2 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 6.2 APG, 1.3 SPG), who could’ve made his own case for an All-Star bid, scored 20 points and dished out eight assists on the night. He is only a few nights removed from his own career high in scoring, when he scored 38 and added nine assists in a win over Phoenix on Jan. 30. SG Tony Allen (9.4 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 1.8 SPG) and SF Chandler Parsons (6.7 PPG) also sat on Saturday. Allen remains a defensive stopper at the age of 35, while a minutes restriction is one of many things holding Parsons back from living up to his big contract. PF Zach Randolph (14.2 PPG, 8.3 RPG) only plays about 24 minutes per game now, his fewest since 2002-03, but his PER remains lofty at 19.2.