John Paul Jones Arena – Charlottesville, VA
Tip-off: Monday, 7:00 pm ET
Line: Virginia -4.0, Total: 126.0

Virginia will be hoping to get back on track with a home victory over Louisville on Monday.

Heading into the season, there were some concerns about whether or not Louisville’s offense was good enough to make this team a legitimate contender. The Cardinals have certainly shot that talk down by now, averaging 78.5 PPG (72nd in NCAA) on the season. They’re also running the nation’s 29th most efficient offense as well, putting up 116.7 points per 100 possessions. The Cardinals have seemingly saved their best for the past couple of weeks too. In four of the past five games, Louisville has shot 50% or better from the floor. The Cardinals scored at least 85 points in all four of those games, and they’ll need to find a way to get some good looks on Monday. That won’t be easy against a Virginia team that held them to just 43.2% shooting in a 61-53 road victory for the Cavaliers on Dec. 28. Virginia happens to be a desperate team coming into this one, as the Cavaliers have lost two of their past three games. That means that they’ll come out hoping to shut down this Cardinals offense, and it’s hard to say they’ll have trouble doing it. Virginia is 4-1 SU (3-2 ATS) in its past five games against Louisville, and the Cardinals have shot less than 45% in four of those five games. The Cavaliers also happen to be an impressive 20-7 ATS in home games off an upset loss as a favorite since 1997.

Louisville is on a roll right now and G Donovan Mitchell (15.0 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 2.1 SPG) has been playing out of his mind lately. Over the past three games, Mitchell has shot a ridiculous 25-for-40 from the floor and 14-for-22 from three. He is averaging 25.3 PPG in that span, and he’ll need to come through with another big performance. That won’t be easy for Mitchell, who had just seven points on 3-for-11 shooting from the field and 1-for-6 shooting from the outside against Virginia on Dec. 28. The Cardinals offense is not good enough to withstand another performance like that from Mitchell on Monday, so he’ll need to do a better job of getting to his spots. Two other guys that will need to find ways to score are G Quentin Snider (12.1 PPG, 4.0 APG) and F Deng Adel (11.1 PPG, 4.3 RPG). The two of them combined to score just 16 against Virginia in December. Somebody on the Cardinals will need to score at least 10 points in this one, which is something that didn’t happen the first time these teams met.

Virginia is once again a force on both ends of the floor, as the team is playing its usual brand of shutdown defense and irritatingly efficient offense. The Cavaliers are the third most efficient defense in the country, allowing just 88.9 points per 100 possessions. They’re also good on the offensive end, scoring 119.1 points per 100 possessions (t-16th in NCAA). The guy that makes this offense go is G London Perrantes (11.9 PPG, 4.0 APG, 3.0 RPG). Perrantes manages games as well as any player in the country, but he is also a very good scorer. Perrantes is shooting 44.9% from the floor and 42.3% from three on the year. He’ll need to hit some big shots in order for Virginia to get back into the win column, but he certainly knows that. Perrantes will, however, need some help in this one. The hope is that it will come from either G Kyle Guy (7.8 PPG) or G Ty Jerome (3.5 PPG). Both freshmen are inconsistent, but they are also extremely talented. If one of them can get hot in this game then it’s hard to imagine the Cavaliers losing. Guys like Gs Devon Hall (8.5 PPG) and Marial Shayok (9.8 PPG) are a bit more reliable, and they should each score around 10 in this one.