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#24 Florida hosts #8 Kentucky Saturday night
By: Dave Schoenholt - StatFox
Published: 2/3/2017  at  5:52:00 AM
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KENTUCKY WILDCATS (18-4)

FLORIDA GATORS (16-5)

Stephen O’Connell Center – Gainesville, FL
Tip-off: Saturday, 8:15 pm ET
Line: Kentucky -2.0

A primetime, top 25 Saturday night battle features #24 Florida hosting #8 Kentucky for SEC supremacy.

The Florida Gators have played the role of “distant second place” to the dominant era of Kentucky basketball in the SEC recently, but things could be changing when the Gators and Wildcats clash on Saturday night. A Florida win would tie them with Kentucky at 8-2 in the conference standings. The Gators have won three straight coming into Saturday night’s game, most recently thrashing Missouri on Thursday night (93-54, UF -20.5). Kentucky, however, was on the cusp of losing a third straight game before gutting out a 90-81 overtime win (UK -15.5) at home against Georgia on Tuesday night. Prior to that win, the Wildcats had losses dropped on them at Tennessee and at home against Kansas. Kentucky has been dreadful against the spread of late, going 1-6 ATS since Jan. 10th, and are 1-4 ATS on the road for the season. Florida sports a 5-1 (3-3 ATS) home mark, their lone loss coming against Vanderbilt (68-66, UF -11.5) two weeks ago. It’s worth noting that Florida is 2-0 (2-0 ATS) when given just one day’s rest, while three of Kentucky’s four losses have come with 3+ day’s rest. The matchup between the Gators and Wildcats has trended towards Kentucky domination since 2014 with Coach Calipari winning the last five meetings against Florida (4-1 ATS). Those five wins include an 88-79 (UK -4.5) win at the O’Connell Center last March. The Wildcats’ struggle to put away Georgia at home on Tuesday night can be partially attributed to the absence of star freshman G De’Aaron Fox (15.9 PPG, 5.7 APG). Fox caught the illness bug going around the team (which also affected reserves Mychal Mulder and Sacha Killeya-Jones). Fox’s effectiveness (he was also injured against South Carolina on Jan. 21st) if he plays will be something to keep an eye on, as he’s reportedly a “game time decision” for Saturday night.

Without Fox on the floor at 100 percent since Jan. 21, Kentucky has noticeably struggled. Fox is their best perimeter defender and their offensive floor-leader; but without him at his best, Kentucky’s defense suffered against Tennessee, while Fox labored through 38 minutes and committed five turnovers against Kansas. More pressure is also put on the shoulders of guards Malik Monk (22.4 PPG, 1st in SEC) and Isaiah Briscoe (14.5 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 4.5 APG). Monk was his magnificent self against Georgia on Tuesday scoring eight of his game-high 37 points in overtime. There would’ve been no overtime had Monk not drained a game-tying jumper with 8 seconds left in regulation. Briscoe also contributed a magnificent all-around game while tasked with full-time ball-handling duties. He did commit six turnovers, but also poured in 23 points along with 11 rebounds and eight assists. It’s worth noting that the sophomore guard converted 11-of-15 from the charity stripe in the win over Georgia, highlighting a remarkable turnaround in that area for Briscoe (72.0% FT) compared to the unacceptable 46.0% FT his freshman season in Lexington. F Edrice Adebayo (13.2 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 61% FG) contributed 12 points in 23 foul-plagued minutes against the Bulldogs. His presence on the court is something Coach Calipari can’t do without, but the 6’10” Adebayo has committed four fouls in five of his last seven contests. After a string of seven consecutive games over 50.0% FG for the nation’s No. 3 offense (91.3 PPG), Kentucky has dipped below the 50.0% mark in three straight contests. Florida’s 38th ranked scoring defense (65.6 PPG) will provide little relief for the Wildcats, as they specialize in eliminating easy baskets (0.400 Assist/FGM ratio, 1st in NCAA). Kentucky would seem to have a size advantage over the Gators as the Wildcats’ stellar rebounding (40 RPG, 8th in NCAA) would normally give the smaller Gators fits. That said, Florida has grabbed 106 rebounds over their last two games (+35 reb margin).

As mentioned above, a big key for the Gators will be to sustain their relentless rebounding efforts of the past week against the bigger and more athletic Wildcats. Everyone got into the action on the glass on Thursday night, highlighted by a 12-point, 12-rebound, 10-assist triple-double by reserve G Chris Chiozza (5.3 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 3.8 APG). The 6-foot Chiozza becomes the third Gator to ever record a triple-double and was one of six Gator players to grab five or more rebounds against Missouri. Florida’s bench, a point of strength all season has enjoyed resurgent play from G Canyon Barry (12.8 PPG) in his past two games after returning from injury. The 6’6” transfer has scored 32 points in his last 41 minutes of action in wins over Missouri and Oklahoma. Coach Mike White will keep relying on that deep bench to run a thinner Kentucky rotation down. While Kentucky has struggled in the past week and a half, Florida has breezed by, winning their last three games by an average of 32 points. The Gators should be well-rested even with playing on Thursday at home, given how much garbage time has been spread out in these blowout victories. The Gators don’t jump off the page on either side of the ball statistically, but rank in the top 10 in both turnover margin (4.3) and in adjusted defensive efficiency (per kenpom.com). The Gators are lead in scoring by G Ke’Vaughn Allen (13.6 PPG, 40.3% 3PT) and rebounding by big John Egbunu (7.7 PPG, 6.7 RPG). F Devin Robinson (11.8 PPG, 5.7 RPG) is a solid frontcourt cog for the Gators, and he has steadily improved with each season in Gainesville. G Kasey Hill (9.4 PPG, 4.9 APG) rounds out the starting lineup and is averaging 11.5 PPG, 4.5 RPG and 6.0 APG over his past two games.


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