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Paul-less Clippers host Warriors on Thursday
By: Sam Chase - StatFox
Published: 2/2/2017  at  12:39:00 PM
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GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS (42-7)

at LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS (31-18)

Tip-off: Thursday, 10:30 p.m. ET
Line: Golden State -8.5, Total: 227.5

How will the Clippers respond to a 46-point loss in Golden State last weekend?

The Warriors got a vintage Steph Curry game on Wednesday night, as their star point guard hit 11 three-pointers and scored 39 points in only three quarters of action in a 126-111 blowout home win over the Hornets. The win improved Golden State’s record to 42-7 (23-24-2 ATS), and they are up 4.5 games on the Spurs for first place in the Western Conference (and the best record in the league). The Dubs will take to the road for the second leg of a back-to-back on Thursday night, although they won’t have to travel far for a matchup with the Clippers at Staples Center. The Clippers have gone 2-4 without star PG Chris Paul, who is still recovering from surgery to repair a ligament of his left thumb. By far the most embarrassing of those four defeats was a 144-98 slaughtering at the hands of the Warriors this past Saturday (GSW -13), so Los Angeles will be looking for revenge only a few nights later. The Clippers are No. 4 in the Western Conference at 31-18 (24-25 ATS), half a game ahead of the fifth-place Jazz. They will also be playing for the second consecutive night on Thursday, as they defeated the Suns 124-114 on the road Wednesday night (LAC -2.5). Over the last five seasons, home underdogs revenging a loss of 10 points or more and playing only their second game in five days (LAC) are 79-44 ATS. In the same timeframe, though, underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a road blowout loss of 20 points or more (LAC) against an opponent coming off a home win in which they scored at least 110 points are a dismal 4-28 ATS. Los Angeles C DeAndre Jordan is considered probable for Thursday’s game, while Warriors PG Shaun Livingston is doubtful. Golden State is even shallower than usual in the paint, as C Zaza Pachulia and PF David West each figure to be out for at least another week.

Remarkably, the Warriors lead the entire league in both offensive efficiency rating (116.6 points per 100 possessions) and defensive efficiency rating (103.6 points allowed per 100 possessions). They do it while playing at a pace faster than anyone in the league except for the Brooklyn Nets, averaging 100.7 possessions per 48 minutes. Since the calendar turned to 2017, the team has belonged to Curry (25.3 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 6.2 APG, 1.7 SPG). The two-time reigning MVP has his swagger back, eschewing all historical norms of shot selection to once again nail jumpers from almost anywhere on the court. He attempted 11.1 three-pointers per game in January and made 43.1% of them; compare that to December, when he shot 8.5 of them and made “only” 37.5%. He started off February with a bang on Wednesday, and looked primed to break his own single-game three-point record of 13 (set in November) before sitting the final period. He is starting to look more comfortable next to SF Kevin Durant (26.1 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 4.8 APG, 1.1 SPG, 1.7 BPG), who has made an unstoppable offense even more deadly since he arrived in the Bay. He is deadly efficient, ranking 10th in the league in shooting percentage (54.3%) and attempting at least 4.3 more field goals per game than anyone ranked ahead of him (17.1). He has made the defense better, too—he’s second among all NBA small forwards in blocks. SG Klay Thompson (21.3 PPG, 3.8 RPG) will be back at All-Star Weekend defending his three-point contest title, but he has already backed up his trophy on the court this season: he’s shooting 40.3% from deep and he has made the fifth-most treys of anyone in the league (149). SF Draymond Green (10.4 PPG, 8.4 RPG, 7.4 APG, 1.9 SPG, 1.5 BPG) has only received attention in recent months when causing trouble, but he wholly earned his All-Star bid. C Javale McGee (5.7 PPG, 2.6 RPG) starts with Pachulia out, and SFs Andre Iguodala (6.0 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 3.4 APG) and James Michael McAdoo (2.2 PPG) see more minutes with West gone.

Paul (17.5 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 9.7 APG, 2.3 SPG) has now missed six games, and it’s now more relevant to discuss the team’s performance without him than with him. The Clippers are scoring 112.3 points per 100 possessions in their last five games, putting them 11th in the league in offensive efficiency over that stretch. His absence appears to have devastated them on defense, however: They’re allowing 125.2 points per 100 possessions in that same timeframe, the worst in the league. (Their 107.6 DEFF is 12th in the league on the season.) They’re playing at a pace of 97 possessions per 48 minutes in their last five. The Clippers were briefly without both Paul and PF Blake Griffin (21.1 PPG, 8.7 RPG, 4.7 APG, 1.0 SPG), but, fortunately for them, he returned soon after Paul went down. He has now played in three games since missing a little over a month with a knee injury. He shot 3-of-11 for only 12 points in his return against Philadelphia, but was 9-of-14 for 20 points in the blowout loss to Golden State. He truly looked like his uninjured self against Phoenix, scoring 29 points on 14 shots and grabbing eight boards. In that game, the Clippers started a small lineup that included PG Raymond Felton (7.7 PPG, 2.5 APG), PG Austin Rivers (11.9 PPG, 2.7 APG) and SG J.J. Redick (15.6 PPG). SG Jamal Crawford (11.8 PPG, 2.9 APG) is typically playing at least 30 minutes per game off the bench with Paul gone. C DeAndre Jordan (12.3 PPG, 13.8 RPG, 1.8 BPG) is tied for the league lead in rebounding and is eighth in blocks. SFs Luc Mbah a Moute (6.5 PPG, 1.1 SPG) and Wesley Johnson (3.2 PPG, 3.4 RPG) see the court less than they were expected to when the season began—Johnson is now essentially a non-factor on most nights.


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