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#4 Kentucky hosts #2 Kansas on Saturday
By: Dave Schoenholt - StatFox
Published: 1/27/2017  at  8:06:00 PM
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KANSAS JAYHAWKS (18-2)

KENTUCKY WILDCATS (17-3)

Rupp Arena – Lexington, KY
Tip-off: Saturday, 6:15pm ET
Line: N/A

#4 Kentucky looks to even the score from last January’s defeat against the Jayhawks, hosting #2 Kansas in a matchup of the two winningest programs in college basketball history.

Both coming off disappointing losses, it’s hard to tell if Coach Calipari’s Wildcats and Coach Self’s Jayhawks were looking ahead to Saturday’s titanic matchup of college basketball blue-bloods. Kansas lost on the road to a #18 West Virginia team desperate for a win (85-69, KU +3.5) on Tuesday. It was the Jayhawks’ first loss since opening night of the season against Indiana, snapping an 18-game win streak. Much more surprising was Kentucky’s letdown at 10-9 Tennessee (82-80, UK -10.5) on Tuesday. The loss snapped the Wildcats’ seven-game win streak but was also the fourth time in the last five games that Kentucky failed to cover. The Wildcats have been double-digit favorites in each of their past eight games. In this, the fourth year of the Big 12/SEC Classic (that the Big 12 has won all four times), Kentucky will be looking to exact some revenge for the 90-84 overtime defeat at the hands of Kansas (KU -5.5) in Allen Fieldhouse last season. Sophomore G Isaiah Briscoe and Senior F Derek Willis are the only two key contributors to last season’s Kentucky team that will play in the rematch. Kentucky is 5-4 (4-5 ATS) in its last nine games against Kansas dating back to 1998, which includes the 2012 National Championship (won by Kentucky). The home team has won every meeting except 2005, where Kansas came into Rupp Arena as 5.5-point underdogs and pulled out a 65-59 win. Kentucky is 10-1 (7-3) in Rupp Arena this season, their sole home loss in another top five clash against UCLA in early December. Kansas is 4-1 on the road but just 1-4 ATS in those games. Furthermore, the Jayhawks are just 6-12 ATS on the season (2-7 ATS in their last nine). Kentucky has been a bit better against the spread this season at 11-8, but has struggled lately to the tune of 1-4 ATS in their last five. F Carlton Bragg (6.1 PPG, 4.8 RPG) was recently suspended indefinitely for Kansas. For Kentucky, senior F Mychal Mulder (6 PPG) is out indefinitely with an illness and has already missed Kentucky’s two previous games.

After an 18-game win streak, usually one loss isn’t enough to set a fan base into panic mode. Unfortunately most fan bases aren’t like the ones that rally behind the Jayhawks or Wildcats, and while losing a road game to a team that has spent time in the top 10 (West Virginia) is nothing to be ashamed of, there are off-the-court issues swirling around Kansas that are disturbing to say the least and could be effecting the Jayhawks on the floor. Besides the Friday-announced suspension to reserve forward Carlton Bragg, five Jayhawks players were interviewed by police as possible witnesses to serious sexual allegations in the dormitory where the basketball team is housed. Basketball might not rightfully be the first thing on the players’ minds at the moment. In any event, Kansas got outworked in Morgantown on Tuesday night, losing the battle of the boards (39-32) and allowing West Virginia to shoot 48% FG while sending the Mountaineers to the line 23 times. The Jayhawks “only” turned it over 13 times against West Virginia’s pesky defense, which makes the sub-par defensive effort from Kansas that much more surprising. Still a top-10 offensive team in PPG, FG%, APG, Kansas can proverbially roll out of bed and put up points with skill players such as G Frank Mason III (19.9 PPG, 5.2 APG, 52.8% 3PT), G Devonte’ Graham (13.7 PPG, 4.7 APG) and F Josh Jackson (15.5 PPG, 6.6 RPG). How the Jayhawks fare on defense, however, will be the barometer to whether they can give Kentucky losses in consecutive seasons. Kansas has big issues guarding the paint with F Landen Lucas (7.3 PPG, 8.0 RPG) a steady role player but not a rim protector or athletic specimen by any means. West Virginia’s 6’8” F Esa Ahmad went for a season-high 27 points in the win on Tuesday night and Kentucky can come at you with waves of rim-attacking players. The Jayhawks commit just shy of 20 fouls per game (178th in NCAA) and will now have to try and guard the nation’s best team at drawing fouls (24.4) in the Wildcats. If Kansas can tighten up their interior defense and force Kentucky to shoot over the top from the perimeter, they shouldn’t have issues scoring on their own against Coach Calipari’s worst defense (72.5 PPG allowed, 174th in NCAA) in years.

Kentucky boasts the best offensive team in the power seven conferences (92.3 PPG, 2nd in NCAA) and had a streak of seven straight games shooting 50% FG or better snapped on Tuesday night in the shocking loss to Tennessee. This season’s Wildcats boast scoring at every level. From guards who can grab a defensive rebound and go coast-to-coast with a dunk or lob at the rim (De’Aaron Fox, Isaiah Briscoe) to a big man who dunks on anyone in his way (Edrice Adebayo) to the SEC’s leading scorer in freshman G Malik Monk (21.9 PPG, 49.8% FG, 39.9% 3PT), there’s a lot to like about Coach Calipari’s team. Oddly enough, what’s not to like is something that’s been consistent in Lexington season after season until 2016-17: defense. Kentucky is consistently taking their opponent’s best punch on offense and not clamping down. Tennessee shooting 46.9% FG (50% 3PT) is just the latest example. The Wildcats have hosted teams just as talented as Kansas offensively, and the results haven’t been pretty (97 points in a loss to UCLA, 100 points allowed in a buzzer-beating win against North Carolina). Kentucky would be wise to exploit the Jayhawks thin rotation and frontcourt with the bruising Adebayo (13.5 PPG, 6.9 PPG, 62.4% FG). Adebayo is 24-for-30 from the field over his last six games and has gone to the line 10+ times in four of those six contests. Fox (16.2 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 5.9 APG) has arguably been Calipari’s most valuable player. The freshman southpaw was hurt eight minutes into a win over South Carolina last weekend and didn’t look 100% in his 25 minutes during the loss to Tennessee. The burly Briscoe (14.1 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 4.2 APG) plays like a power forward, often laying claim to defensive rebounds to get Kentucky off and running (as evidenced by his 14 rebounds against Tennessee).


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