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Blazers host Grizzlies on Friday
By: Sam Chase - StatFox
Published: 1/27/2017  at  1:30:00 PM
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MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES (27-20)

at PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS (20-27)

Tip-off: Friday, 10:00 p.m. ET
Line: Memphis -2, Total: 205.5

Fresh off his third straight All-Star snub, Damian Lillard looks to tear down the tough Memphis defense.

The Memphis Grizzlies got an MVP-level performance from C Marc Gasol on Wednesday night, as the Spaniard scored a career-high 42 points to lead the Grizz to a 101-99 home win over the reeling Raptors (TOR +5.5). Memphis is now 27-20 (23-24 ATS) and in seventh place in the Western Conference standings, with a six-game cushion separating them from the eighth-place Nuggets. In their last 20 games, though, the Grizzlies actually have a losing record of 9-11. Friday night, Memphis kicks off a six-game road trip with a visit to Portland, where they’ll play the 20-27 Trail Blazers (19-28 ATS, second-worst ATS record in the league). Portland has won two straight games against storied franchises, as they beat the Celtics in Boston 127-123 on Sunday (POR +8) and the Lakers 105-98 at home on Wednesday (LAL +8). The Trail Blazers are one game back of the Nuggets for the aforementioned No. 8 seed. Over the last five seasons, road favorites that have failed to cover the spread in four or five of their last six games (MEM) are 46-22 ATS versus teams that have failed to cover in four of their last five games. Since the beginning of last season, Portland is 42-27 Over against the total against teams with winning records. For Memphis, SG Troy Daniels is questionable for Friday night, while SF Chandler Parsons and PF JaMychal Green are probable. PF Ed Davis is doubtful for Portland, and SF Maurice Harkless is questionable.

The 2016-17 Grizzlies are living up to the franchise’s reputation of assembling rosters that are strong defensively and leave something to be desired on the offensive end of the court: Memphis ranks fourth in the league in defensive efficiency rating (105.1 points allowed per 100 possessions) and 24th in offensive efficiency rating (105.4 points scored). They’re still Grit and Grind, too, playing the third-slowest pace in the league at 92.9 possessions per 48 minutes. On Thursday night, Gasol (20.6 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 4.2 APG, 1.0 SPG, 1.4 BPG) was deservingly named a reserve on the Western Conference All-Star team. He is tied for second among NBA centers in points per game, and remains one of the best passers and defenders in the league at the position. Despite those constants, he has fundamentally changed his game this year: he’s a three-point shooter now. Having never shot more than 0.2 threes per game before in a season, he’s now shooting 3.6 per game and making 39.5% of them. He made five of 10 from deep in his offensive explosion against Toronto. PG Mike Conley (18.6 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 6.2 APG, 1.3 SPG) didn’t make the All-Star roster, but he would have been a deserving choice. His 21.19 PER is sixth among Western Conference point guards, although he had a rough 11-point outing against the Raptors on 4-of-16 shooting. PF Zach Randolph (13.7 PPG, 8.2 RPG) can still score and rebound in limited doses, but isn’t much of a defender. SG Tony Allen’s (9.8 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 1.8 SPG) skills in that area, remain elite, however. SF Vince Carter (8.2 PPG, 3.3 RPG) still can electrify at the age of 40.

Portland is absolutely atrocious on defense, as the Blazers allow 112 points per 100 possessions (fourth-worst in NBA). Their offense is above average in scoring 109.2 points per 100 possessions (11th in NBA), but not nearly enough to make up for the sieve of a defense. They play a moderate pace of 97.1 points per 100 possessions. For the third year in a row, PG Damian Lillard (26.2 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 5.8 APG) was snubbed from the All-Star game, becoming the first player since the ‘80s to average 25 points per game and be passed over for consecutive ASGs. He’ll certainly use it for motivation, although it seems like there’s not much more he could do on the offensive end of the floor. The only game he’s played in this month where he didn’t score at least 20 points was a double-digit home victory over the Cavaliers. One could’ve also made an All-Star argument for his mate in the backcourt, SG C.J. McCollum (23.5 PPG, 3.5 RPG, 3.7 APG, 1.1 SPG). He didn’t make the cut either, but he continues to raise his ceiling as a player in his fourth year in the league. His 42.1% mark from deep is 11th among all qualified players in the league and third among players who shoot at least six threes per game. Lillard is tied for seventh in the league in scoring and McCollum is tied for 14th. One of the 10 players who ranks ahead of McCollum in 3P% is SG Allen Crabbe (10.4 PPG), who shoots 42.4%. Harkless (11.0 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 1.2 SPG) has started 42 of the team’s 47 games this year, so his absence on Friday would certainly hurt. C Mason Plumlee (11.0 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 4.2 APG, 1.2 BPG) plays a well-rounded game in the interior.


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