Dean E. Smith Center – Chapel Hill, NC
Tip-off: Thursday, 8:00p.m. ET
Line: UNC -14.0

#9 North Carolina looks for their seventh win in a row and sole possession of first place in the ACC when they host Virginia Tech Thursday night.

Thursday night’s meeting between the Hokies and Tar Heels has the makings of a track meet between two of the ACC’s best offenses. Coach Buzz Williams has turned around the Virginia Tech program (15-4, 8-7 ATS), but after a strong non-conference showing in November and December, the Hokies have hit some bumps in conference play (4-3, 3-4 ATS). Virginia Tech is 1-2 (1-2 ATS) on the road in conference play, although their most recent win was a road victory over Clemson on Sunday (82-81, VT+7), highlighted by 54.7% FG on the offensive end. Coach Roy Williams’ Tar Heels will be looking for win number seven in a row, and Florida State’s loss to Georgia Tech on Wednesday leaves the door open for North Carolina atop the ACC standings (6-1, 4-3 ATS in conference play). North Carolina is undefeated at home this season (10-0, 7-2 ATS) and their recent streak includes home wins over Florida State, NC State, and Syracuse, and the Tar Heels covered in each victory. North Carolina is 6-2 ATS when favored at home by more than 10 points, and will be well rested (having played just one game in a nine-day span) where the Tar Heels are 7-2 (3-5 ATS) during layoffs of 3+ days. Virginia Tech has lost their last five tries to win in Chapel Hill, but have covered on the road against the Tar Heels the last three times in the Dean Dome. Two of those last three occasions (2015, 2013) saw the Hokies as underdogs of 16+ points. Virginia Tech’s last (and only) win at North Carolina was in 2007 as a 15.5-point underdog. Overall, North Carolina has won the last seven meetings between these two teams, but Virginia Tech is 6-1 ATS in those games. With the total for this game sitting at a high 162.5, it’s worth noting that the last four meetings in Chapel Hill between the Tar Heels and Hokies has been Under (Under is 8-1 overall in the last nine games between North Carolina and Virginia Tech). That said, the total has been Over in each of North Carolina’s last four games.

Last season’s Hokies fell apart in mid-January, going 1-7 in the heart of ACC play before regrouping to snag an NIT bid. Coach Buzz Williams seems to have his Hokies all-in for his third season in Blacksburg, with Virginia Tech putting up some impressive offensive numbers (81.5 PPG, 27th in NCAA). The Hokies play fast, but they’re still incredibly efficient (1.17 points per possession, 17th in NCAA). Virginia Tech will have their work cut out for them going against a North Carolina team that loves to push the pace and leads the nation in total rebounding. The Tar Heels are also a better defensive team than they’ve been in recent years, holding opponents to just 41% FG (51st in NCAA). The Hokies rank just in the middle of the pack defensively (72.2 PPG allowed, 162nd in NCAA) and grab 10 less rebounds per game (on average) than their counterparts from Chapel Hill. A big defensive effort is what would spark an upset chance, though, as two of North Carolina’s three losses this season saw them shoot below 40.0% FG. Buzz Williams employs a short, but effective rotation of six key players (all playing 27+ minutes). Five of those players average double-figures, led by F Zach LeDay’s 16.3 PPG, and 7.1 RPG. While LeDay and fellow F Chris Clarke (12.5 PPG, 7.8 RPG) are solid rebounders for their size, at 6’7” and 6’6”, they’re going to be giving up lots of size in the paint to North Carolina’s dominating frontcourt. LeDay and Clarke have to keep the Tar Heels from second-chance opportunities. With such a limited rotation, Coach Buzz Williams actually has brought those two off the bench in the Hokies last few games (although they’ve still played a full compliment of minutes) and senior G Seth Allen (11.7 PPG, 3.5 APG, 48.2% 3PT) has ascended into a starters role. Allen played a season-high 37 minutes and led the Hokies with 17 points in the win over Clemson on Sunday. Sophomore guards Ahmed Hill (13.6 PPG, 42.3% 3PT) and Justin Robinson (10.3 PPG, 4.2 APG) both lead the team in minutes played (30.1 MPG apiece), but have shown expected inconsistencies in conference play (Hill is 7-for-19 over his last three games while Robinson has gone scoreless in two of his past four). Buzz Williams is famous for juggling lineups, so you never know if either of those two might be coming off the bench on Thursday night.

North Carolina battered Virginia Tech on the glass (48-35) in last season’s win in Blacksburg and will look to do the same with the nation’s best rebounding team (45.6 RPG) on Thursday night. The Tar Heels have been especially effective on the offensive glass (14.8 OR/G, 1st in NCAA), getting at least 20 second-chance points in five of their last six contests. Five Tar Heels average 5.0 rebounds or better per game (including just-returned Theo Pinson at 5.6 RPG), led by F Kennedy Meeks (13.0 PPG, 9.6 RPG). Meeks, now a senior, is enjoying a fine season with seven double-doubles and a 20-point, nine-rebound performance in North Carolina’s most recent win (on Saturday at Boston College). Meeks struggled to cover Virginia Tech’s smaller frontcourt in Blacksburg last season, posting just seven points in a foul-plagued effort while his counterpart Zach LeDay went to the free throw line eleven times. Leading the Tar Heels in scoring and playing the best basketball of his career is junior F Justin Jackson (18.2 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 40.0% 3PT). At 6’8”, Jackson is a matchup nightmare for smaller wings and slower big men, and he’s finally found the consistency that matches his talent (double-figures in each of his last 10 games – 21.1 PPG in that stretch). The return of the aforementioned Pinson (6.4 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 3.6 APG) shows up more in the win column than the box score, as the Tar Heels are undefeated (5-0) with their ultimate “glue guy” back in the lineup. Pinson’s return has also taken pressure off of F Isaiah Hicks (13.1 PPG, 5.4 RPG) defensively, and Hicks’ offense has flourished over his last five games (16.6 PPG, 67.5% FG, 91% FT). Coach Roy Williams’ offense is in good hands with G Joel Berry II (15.5 PPG, 3.9 APG, 42.9% 3PT) although Berry oddly only has two assists in his past three games with the Tar Heels doing so much damage on the offensive glass.