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Super Bowl LI: Patriots vs. Falcons - Feb. 5
By: Staff Writer - StatFox
Published: 2/4/2017  at  1:09:00 PM
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NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (16-2)
vs. ATLANTA FALCONS (13-5)

NRG Stadium – Houston, TX
Kickoff: Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET
Line: New England -3, Total: 59

Patriots vs. Falcons may be the best offensive showcase in Super Bowl history.

Tom Brady and Bill Belichick won their seventh AFC Title together on Conference Championship Weekend, dismantling the Steelers 36-17 at home (NE -5.5) to advance to the Super Bowl. It will be a record-setting ninth Super Bowl appearance for the franchise, and they are 4-4 in their previous four appearances. (Brady and Belichick are 4-2.) The Patriots offense looked sharp against Pittsburgh, racking up 431 total yards and 26 first downs without turning the ball over. The defense allowed 368 yards, but held an explosive Steelers offense to only nine points until a garbage time touchdown and two-point conversion. A week earlier, the Pats beat Houston 34-16 (NE -16) to win and cover an enormous spread despite playing sloppily. Their Super Bowl opponent is the Atlanta Falcons, who will be playing in the big game for the second time and playing for their first ever league championship. Atlanta has looked even more dominant than New England in these playoffs, beating Seattle 36-20 (ATL -6.5) and then Green Bay 44-21 (ATL -6) to glide to an NFC Championship. The Falcons went for over 400 yards in each game—and put up an ungodly 493 against the Packers—and are yet to commit a turnover this postseason. They’ve outgained their two opponents by nearly 120 yards per game. Over the last 10 seasons, teams that scored at least 35 points in their last game (NE) are 5-22 ATS against teams that combined with their opponents to score at least 50 points in each of their last three games (ATL). That said, the Patriots have been easily the league’s best team against the spread this year at 15-3. In the last five Super Bowls, favorites are 0-5 both SU and ATS, though. Atlanta has gone Over the total in each of their last eight games, and this year’s total of 59 is a Super Bowl record. C Alex Mack is probable to play for Atlanta, and key special teams player Nate Ebner is questionable for New England.

Brady (67.4 CMP%, 3,554 yards, 28 TDs, 2 INTs) sat the first four games of the season under a fraudulent suspension handed down by the tyrant Roger Goodell, but he showed no rust when he returned: He finished the regular season second in the league in passer rating and yards per attempt, and fourth in passing yards per game. He faced arguably the NFL’s best defense when he took down the Texans in the Divisional Round, and it showed—Brady completed 18 of 38 passes for 287 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions, the same number of picks he threw on 432 regular season attempts. Knowing Brady’s postseason track record, though, few Patriots fans seemed concerned entering the Pittsburgh game, and their lack of distress was validated. Brady had arguably the best game of his playoff career, completing 32 of 42 passes for 384 yards and three touchdowns. In an NFL record 33 career playoff games, he is 24-9, completing 62.4% of his passes for 261.5 yards per game, 1.85 touchdowns and 0.91 interceptions. In his six career Super Bowl appearances he has completed 66.4% of his passes for 267.5 yards per game, 2.17 touchdowns and 0.67 interceptions. Joining him in the backfield will be RBs LeGarrette Blount (299 carries, 1,161 yards, 18 TDs), James White (60 catches, 551 yards, 5 TDs) and Dion Lewis (64 carries, 283 yards in very limited action). Blount can run between the tackles, White can catch passes and Lewis can do a bit of both (and return kicks), meaning he’ll likely see the most snaps of the three against Atlanta. The Patriots leaned heavily on Shane Vereen as a scatback-style player in the 2014-15 Super Bowl against the Seahawks, and Lewis serves a similar function. WR Chris Hogan (38 carries, 680 yards, 4 TDs) has exploded this postseason, catching 13 passes for 275 yards and two TDs in two games. WR Julian Edelman (98 catches, 1,106 yards, 3 TDs) has been just as hot, catching 16 passes for 255 yards and a touchdown in the two games. He had nine catches for 109 yards and a touchdown in the Super Bowl two years ago. TE Martellus Bennett (55 catches, 701 yards, 7 TDs) and rookie WR Malcolm Mitchell (32 catches, 401 yards, 4 TDs) could also be x-factors. The Patriots defense finished the regular season as the NFL’s best scoring defense (15.6 PPG), and they’ve played even better since (16.5 PPG). S Devin McCourty and CBs Malcolm Butler and Logan Ryan have been especially dominant, and they’ll need to bring their A game against the Falcons’ unrivaled passing attack.

If Falcons QB Matt Ryan (69.9 CMP%, 4,944 yards, 38 TDs, 7 INTs) doesn’t win the MVP award this season, voters will have put their utter ineptitude on plain display and a great injustice will have been committed. In leading the Falcons to the No. 2 seed in the NFC, Ryan finished first in the league in passer rating (117.1) and second in completion percentage, passing yardage and touchdown passes. Perhaps most impressively, his league-leading 9.26 yards per attempt were more than an entire yard more than any number posted by another quarterback. His outing against Seattle in the Divisional Round was the best single individual performance of this postseason, as he completed 26 of 37 passes for 338 yards and three touchdowns. Well, it was the best performance, anyway, until the next week, when he torched the Packers for 27-of-38 passing, 392 yards and four touchdowns. It has certainly helped that he has had the NFL’s most imposing offensive weapon, WR Julio Jones (83 catches, 1,409 yards, 6 TDs) to throw to. Jones was frighteningly good against the Packers, catching nine balls for 180 yards and two touchdowns. Ironically, the scariest thing about Jones might be how well he works as a decoy. In an October win over the Packers, he had three catches for 29 yards, but Ryan still threw for 288 and three touchdowns. In a September win over the Saints, he had one catch for seven yards—and the Falcons scored 45 points. WR Mohamed Sanu (59 catches, 653 yards, 4 TDs) has been an ideal No. 2 since joining the team last offseason, and he has scored a touchdown in each of the two playoff games thus far. WR Taylor Gabriel (35 catches, 579 yards, 6 TDs) is a burner and rookie TE Austin Hooper (19 catches, 271 yards, 3 TDs) has emerged as a viable option late in the year. Considering how explosive this Atlanta offense is, it should come as no surprise that it is home to arguable—or perhaps inarguably—the best RB duo in the league in Devonta Freeman (227 carries, 1,079 yards, 11 TDs; 54 catches, 462 yards, 2 TDs) and Tevin Coleman (118 carries, 520 yards, 8 TDs; 31 catches, 421 yards, 3 TDs). They’re dangerous in their versatility; neither’s presence on the field hints at a run or pass play in the way that Blount or White do for New England. They have combined for 352 total yards and three touchdowns thus far in these playoffs. The Falcons defense has done more than enough to support its historically good offensive counterpart. After allowing 371.2 yards per game in the regular season (25th in NFL), it has allowed only 338 YPG in its two playoff games. More importantly, it picked off Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers a combined three times and sacked them five times. LB Vic Beasley led the league with 15.5 sacks in the regular season, and pressuring Brady is a must if Atlanta wants to contain him.


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