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Banged up Clippers host Wolves on Thursday
By: Sam Chase - StatFox
Published: 1/19/2017  at  1:25:00 PM
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MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES (14-28)

at LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS (29-14)

Tip-off: Thursday, 10:30 p.m. ET
Line: Clippers -1, Total: 207.5

The Clippers just lost Chris Paul for six to eight weeks. Now what?

The Los Angeles Clippers appear to be in some trouble. While they are fourth in the Western Conference with a record of 29-14 (22-21 ATS), the Clips lost superstar PG Chris Paul for six to eight weeks when he tore a thumb ligament in a 120-98 home victory over the Thunder on Monday night (LAC -8.5). Add that to a knee injury that has kept co-superstar PF Blake Griffin out of the lineup since the middle of December—and will keep him out for another week or two—and Los Angeles will be extremely shorthanded for the next few games, and still deeply weakened even once Griffin returns. But the season goes on, and the Clippers will take the floor without Paul at home on Thursday night against the Timberwolves. At 14-28 (19-23 ATS), the Wolves are only one game up on last place in the Western Conference and have disappointed those that thought their young core would make a leap this season. They’ve looked somewhat sharper lately, though, and have won five of their last six against the spread after a 122-114 road loss to the mighty Spurs on Tuesday night (MIN +12). Over the last five seasons, road underdogs averaging at least 99 points per game on the season (MIN) are 17-55 ATS against opponents that have led their last two games by at least 10 points at halftime. Since the beginning of last season, the Clippers are 39-20 Under against the total in home games versus teams that make at least 6.0 three-pointers per game.

Scoring 111.8 points per 100 possessions, the Clippers have the sixth-most efficient offense in the NBA thus far in the season. They’re tied for having the fifth-best defense, as they allow only 105.5 points per 100 possessions to opponents. They play at a slightly-below-median pace of 96.3 possessions per 48 minutes. Of course, these numbers no longer seem applicable in light of Paul’s (17.5 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 9.7 APG, 2.3 SPG) injury. He is the team’s leading scorer behind Griffin (21.2 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 4.7 APG, 1.0 SPG) and is fourth in the league in assists. He leads the entire league in steals per game, so his absence will affect Los Angeles on both ends of the court. With Paul on the floor this season, the Clippers were outscoring opponents by 15.0 points per game. Without him, they were being outscored by 4.6. Prepare to watch a totally different basketball team. PGs Austin Rivers (11.0 PPG, 2.5 APG) and Raymond Felton (7.2 PPG, 2.3 APG) will combine to fill Paul’s minutes. Rivers is averaging 16.8 PPG and 4.5 APG in January, and he’ll need to maintain that success for the team to tread water. One would expect SG J.J. Redick (15.7 PPG, 43.5 3P%) to lead the team in field goal attempts until Griffin returns, although it’s unclear how Paul’s absence will affect his ability to find open looks. SG Jamal Crawford (11.6 PPG, 2.7 APG) may start jacking even more shots than usual. If C DeAndre Jordan (12.3 PPG, 13.9 RPG, 1.8 BPG) is ever to take on that increased role that the team promised when it stole him back from the Mavericks, the time would be now. C Marreese Speights (10.3 PPG, 5.0 RPG) posted season highs with 23 points on 15 field goal attempts against the Thunder on Monday.

The Timberwolves have a well-oiled offense, as they rank 11th in the NBA with an offensive efficiency rating of 108.9 points scored per 100 possessions. It’s on defense where things fall apart a bit, where the Wolves allow 110.2 points per 100 possessions (23rd in NBA). Despite their youth, they play the league’s sixth-slowest pace at 94.3 possessions per 48 minutes. While the results aren’t there yet for this squad, the talent is as obvious as ever. C Karl-Anthony Towns (22.0 PPG, 12.0 RPG, 1.5 BPG) is living out a 2015-16 Anthony Davis season (in which he inevitably fails to live up to impossibly lofty, yet somehow undefined, expectations as a young big man), but he has been consistently effective and often dominant. The latter was the case against the Spurs, when he scored 27 points and grabbed 16 rebounds in 43 minutes, tied for the most he has played all season. SF Andrew Wiggins (21.6 PPG, 4.3 RPG) continues to develop at his own uneven pace. He scored only 10 points on a season-low eight shots in 38 minutes against San Antonio. SG Zach LaVine (20.1 PPG, 3.4 APG, 3.0 RPG) has played the last two games after sitting the previous two with a minor hip ailment, and he looked sharp on 8-of-14 shooting against the Spurs. The 21-year-old’s 41.4 three-point percentage this season could be a sign of great things to come. PG Ricky Rubio (7.9 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 8.1 APG, 1.9 SPG) played his best game of the season on Monday, scoring 21 points and dishing out 14 assists. He remains underrated among fans and media members alike. As a glue guy and strong defensive presence, PF Gorgui Dieng (10.8 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.2 BPG) is overlooked, as well.


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