StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

High-scoring Packers, Falcons clash Sunday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 1/18/2017  at  5:17:00 PM
  Print This Article    

GREEN BAY PACKERS (12-6)
at ATLANTA FALCONS (12-5)

Georgia Dome – Atlanta, GA
Kickoff: Sunday, 3:05 p.m. ET
Line: Atlanta -5.0, Total: 61.0

Matt Ryan will be looking to lead the Falcons to their second ever Super Bowl appearance on Sunday.

Green Bay is coming off of a ridiculous 34-31 victory over Dallas, and the Packers just might be the hottest team in football after that one. They have now scored 30 or more points in six straight games, but their win over the Cowboys was no cakewalk. The Packers led 21-3 at one point in that game, but Dallas would ultimately come back and tie the game at both 28-28 and 31-31. K Mason Crosby would end up drilling the game-winning 51-yarder as time expired, but it was QB Aaron Rodgers (717 yards, 6 TD, 1 INT in postseason) that put Green Bay in position to win it. Rodgers threw a 35-yard strike to TE Jared Cook (11 rec, 151 yards, 1 TD in postseason) on what looked like a dead play, and that put the Packers on the Dallas 33-yard line. The Falcons’ victory was less eventful, as they blew out the Seahawks 36-20 as 6.5-point favorites. Atlanta racked up 422 yards of total offense, which is impressive when factoring in that the team faced one of the better defenses in the league. The Packers and Falcons have already met this season, and Atlanta beat Green Bay 33-32 as a three-point home favorite on Oct. 30. It was the second straight game where these teams combined to score over 61 points, which should interest those playing the total in this one. One thing that stands out when looking at this game is that the Packers thrive in the postseason. Under head coach Mike McCarthy, Green Bay is 8-1 ATS as a wild card team and 9-2 ATS on the road in January as well. The Falcons, meanwhile, are a ridiculous 6-0 ATS after allowing six or more yards per play in two straight games under head coach Dan Quinn. WR Jordy Nelson (Ribs) is listed as questionable for the Packers, but it’d be rather shocking to see him on the field on Sunday. For the Falcons, DE Adrian Clayborn (Bicep) is out for the remainder of the year.

The Packers might have barely made it to the postseason, but they definitely aren’t playing like it. This team is as hot as could be and Aaron Rodgers looks like the best quarterback in the league once again. Since Nov. 20, Rodgers has thrown for 24 touchdowns and only one interception. He now gets to face a Falcons team that he shredded for 246 yards with four touchdowns and no picks on Oct. 30. The Packers did, however, lose that game and a lack of a rushing attack hurt in that one. Green Bay rushed for only 108 yards in that contest, and 60 of those yards came from Rodgers. Expect the Packers to do what they can to involve Ty Montgomery (74 yards, 2 TD in postseason) as much as they can this time around. Montgomery had not yet converted from receiver to running back when these teams met in October, but he has come a long way since then. Montgomery didn’t get a ton of work against Dallas last week, but he did rush for 44 yards on only eight carries. That 5.5 YPC would keep Atlanta’s defense honest and allow Rodgers to really spread the ball around. The aforementioned Cook is a guy that has really earned the quarterback’s trust in recent weeks. Cook has been targeted 20 times throughout the postseason, and he should come up with some big catches against Atlanta. Both WRs Randall Cobb (12 rec, 178 yards, 3 TD in postseason) and Davante Adams (13 rec, 201 yards, 1 TD in postseason) will also need to keep producing for the Packers. Both guys have played well in Nelson’s absence, but it can’t stop now. Defensively, this game will fall on the play of the Green Bay secondary. The Falcons are going to attack them down the field, and the Packers need to find a way to contain Julio Jones.

The Falcons are coming off of an impressive victory over the Seahawks, and QB Matt Ryan (338 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT in postseason) was outstanding in that one. Ryan threw for 338 yards with three touchdowns, and he completed a remarkable 26 of his 37 passes against what is supposed to be an elite secondary. Now Ryan will face a Packers defense that allowed rookie Dak Prescott to throw for 302 yards with three touchdowns last week. Ryan threw for 288 yards with three touchdowns and no picks when he faced the Packers on Oct. 30, but injuries have set this Green Bay secondary back even further. It’s likely that Ryan will have a gigantic game this time around, and WR Julio Jones (6 rec, 67 yards, 1 TD in postseason) should help him do just that. Jones is dealing with a banged up toe, but there is nobody that can cover him on this Packers team. He’ll either dominate Green Bay’s secondary himself, or his presence will allow his teammates to roam free all over the field. The running game should also be able to get going on Sunday, though. RBs Devonta Freeman (45 yards, 1 TD in postseason) and Tevin Coleman (57 yards in postseason) combined to rush for 102 yards against the Seahawks last week, and they should have a lot more room to run against Green Bay. Freeman also caught four passes for 80 yards, making him a threat to do damage out of the backfield as well. Defensively, DE Vic Beasley will be the x-factor in this one. Beasley is one of the better pass rushers in the entire league, and he could make it difficult on Aaron Rodgers to sit back in the pocket, as he usually does.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: