Gillette Stadium – Foxborough, MA
Kickoff: Sunday, 6:40 p.m. ET
Line: New England -6.0, Total: 51.0

A loaded Steelers offense looks to knock off the Patriots in New England’s sixth straight AFC Championship appearance.

Not many teams can put up a disappointing performance and still manage to cover a 16.5-point spread as favorites, but that’s exactly what the New England Patriots did in defeating the Houston Texans 34-16 at home in the Divisional Round of the AFC playoffs. The Patriots only led 17-13 at halftime, turned the ball over three times on the day and trailed the Texans by five minutes in time of possession. They got it done primarily with defense in the second half, picking off Houston QB Brock Osweiler three times after halftime to erase any doubt in the mind of the Foxborough faithful. They’ll have to play better this week to send their fans home happy, though, as they face a much more daunting opponent in the Pittsburgh Steelers. Pittsburgh has now won two playoff games and nine in a row overall after a 30-12 home Wild Card win over the Dolphins (PIT -11) and an 18-16 Divisional triumph on the road at Kansas City last weekend (PIT +2.5). The Steelers only scored on field goals against the Chiefs, but outgained them by over 150 yards and held the ball for nearly 10 more minute of game time. Over the last 10 seasons, road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with winning percentages between .600 and .750 that have covered the spread in two of their last three games (PIT) are 34-16 ATS against teams with winning records. In the same time frame, games involving a team that has covered the spread in four or five of its last six games (PIT) and a team that has covered the spread in five or six of its last seven games (NE) are 119-68 Over against the total. WR Malcolm Mitchell and TE Martellus Bennett are considered questionable for Sunday’s game with injuries. LB James Harrison is probable and TE Ladarius Green is doubtful for Pittsburgh.

After one of the best regular seasons of his long and decorated career, Patriots QB Tom Brady (67.4 CMP%, 3,554 yards, 28 TDs, 2 INTs in 12 games) had a rather lackluster outing against the Texans last weekend. Facing arguably the NFL’s best defense, Brady completed 18 of 38 passes for 287 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions on the evening. It was his first time completing less than 50% of his passes in a game this season, and only his second time completing less than 60%. And while one of his picks was not really his fault, it was still jarring to see two of them on 38 attempts from the guy who threw the same number of interceptions on 432 regular season passes. In nine career regular season games against the Steelers, Brady has completed 69.6% of his passes for 314 yards per game, 2.7 touchdowns and 0.3 interceptions per game. In Week 7 against Pittsburgh, he completed 19 of 26 passes for 222 yards and two touchdowns. In winning the 2005 AFC Championship Game against Pittsburgh, he completed 14 of 21 passes for 207 yards and two touchdowns. After Sunday, he will have played in a mind-blowing 11 conference title games. Joining him in the backfield as the lead running back will likely be RB Dion Lewis (64 carries, 283 yards in very limited regular season action), who scored a touchdown on the ground, through the air and on a kick return against Houston last week. RBs LeGarrette Blount (299 carries, 1,161 yards, 18 TDs) and James White (60 catches, 551 yards, 5 TDs) are equally as likely to have impact performances, depending on which game situations arise. Blount had a season-high 127 rushing yards and two touchdowns against Pittsburgh in the regular season. WR Julian Edelman (98 catches, 1,106 yards, 3 TDs) had eight catches for 137 yards against Houston, and WR Chris Hogan (38 catches, 680 yards, 4 TDs) caught four balls for 95 yards. A drop by newly-added WR Michael Floyd led to one of Brady’s interceptions, so it won’t be surprising if he’s buried on the depth chart by Bill Belichick. If Bennett (55 catches, 701 yards, 7 TDs) and Mitchell (32 catches, 401 yards, 4 TDs) somehow both don’t play, WR Danny Amendola (23 catches, 243 yards, 4 TDs) will finally need to step up. The Patriots finished the regular season first in the league in scoring defense (15.6 PPG) and eighth in total defense (326.4). They strangled a very bad Houston offense last week in only allowing 285 yards. CB Logan Ryan had an interception, seven tackles, a sack and three passes defended.

Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger (64.4 CMP%, 3,819 yards, 29 TDs, 13 INTs) has seen mixed results so far in this year’s postseason. On one hand, he played so well early against Miami that the game was over almost immediately, throwing two touchdowns in the game’s first six minutes. He finished the day 13 of 18 for 197 yards—10.94 yards per attempt, his third-best such number in a game this year—and two touchdowns. But he also threw two interceptions, and he threw another one against Kansas City. He was 20 of 31 for 224 yards and no touchdowns against the Chiefs, and, while the offense moved the ball effectively, it had to settle for six field goals. Roethlisberger has won in three of four career AFC Championship Game appearances, completing 58.1% of his passes for 222.3 yards per game, five touchdowns and five interceptions. He has a 95.4 career passer rating against New England, which is slightly better than his 94.1 overall career rating. He’ll certainly be helped on Sunday by having both the NFL’s best running back and its best wide receiver. The former, RB Le’Veon Bell (261 carries, 1,268 yards, 7 TDs; 75 catches, 616 yards, 2 TDs), has impressed everyone in the league—especially Cris Collinsworth—with his patience behind the line of scrimmage and his ability to catch passes out of the backfield. He has carried the ball 59 times over the last two weeks for 237 total rushing yards and two touchdowns, although he only has three receiving yards on four catches. He had 81 yards rushing and 68 receiving against New England in October. The latter is WR Antonio Brown (106 catches, 1,284 yards, 12 TDs), who stirred up some controversy last weekend by live streaming the Steelers’ postgame locker room activities after the Kansas City win. Like Bell, he has dominated in these playoffs, catching 11 passes for 232 yards and two touchdowns in two games. Injuries have weakened the rest of Pittsburgh’s receiving corps this season, though. WRs Markus Wheaton and Martavis Bryant were projected to be big-time contributors before the year was started, but Bryant was suspended in August and Wheaton was placed on the IR in November. The absence of Green (18 catches, 304 yards, TD) will only hurt them further. TE Jesse James (39 catches, 338 yards, 3 TDs), WR Eli Rogers (48 catches, 594 yards, 3 TDs) and WR Demarcus Ayers (6 catches, 53 yards, TD) all may need to step up. The Steelers were 10th in the NFL in scoring defense (20.4 PPG) and 12th in total defense (342.6 YPG) this regular season. Harrison leads the team with 16 tackles and 2.5 sacks in these playoffs. LB Ryan Shazier had an interception against both the Dolphins and Chiefs.