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Oklahoma looks to upset #7 WVU Wednesday
By: Dave Schoenholt - StatFox
Published: 1/18/2017  at  10:36:00 AM
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OKLAHOMA SOONERS (7-9)

W VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS (15-2)

WVU Coliseum – Morgantown, WV
Tip-off: Wednesday, 7:00pm ET
Line: West Virginia -16.5

#7 West Virginia looks to continue the misery of reeling Oklahoma when the Mountaineers host the Sooners in a Big 12 clash.

The Mountaineers (15-2, 7-5 ATS) look for their fourth straight win on Wednesday night as they’re heavy home favorites against 7-9 (8-6) Oklahoma. West Virginia has won three straight and Coach Bob Huggins’ crew comes off of a week that saw them crush then-#1 (Baylor) at home, 89-68 (WVU -5.5). The Mountaineers followed the big home victory with a road win over Texas (74-72, WVU -11.5) to move to #7 in the polls. West Virginia is 4-1 (2-3 ATS) in conference play this season and a perfect 10-0 (3-2) in Morgantown. The Mountaineers are 6-1 (3-4 ATS) as double-digit favorites on the season. In total trends, the Over is 5-1 in the last six Mountaineer games, including each of the past four. After a 5-1 start to their season, and since the calendar turned to December, the Sooners have been abysmal, going 2-8. That said, Oklahoma has performed well against the spread going 6-4 ATS in that stretch. The Sooners are 0-3 (2-1 ATS) on the road thus far and those splits carry over to conference play (1-4 overall, 4-1 ATS), and as underdogs (1-6 overall, 5-2 ATS). The Sooners are actually coming off of their first win in a month, taking down Texas Tech on Saturday at home, 84-75 (OU -1.5). Oklahoma is 3-1 against West Virginia in their past four meetings, with the Sooners having taken both regular season games against the Mountaineers last season (including at WVU Coliseum) only for West Virginia to get revenge in the Big 12 Tournament. Total trends have shown the last four games in this matchup all Under. Wednesday night’s game will be the first double-digit spread in the last ten matchups for these two teams, as the 16-point line dwarfs the previous largest (OU -9.5, Mar ’13).

While there are many differences between West Virginia and Oklahoma this season, the main one is that West Virginia has successfully replaced departed talent with depth, team play, and continuity of style. Oklahoma has floundered trying to make up for roster losses and ultimately this looks to be a rebuilding year. The Mountaineers will look to jump on the youthful Sooners who give the ball away at an alarming rate (14.4 TO/G, 257th in NCAA). West Virginia boasts the best defense at creating turnovers in the nation (24.3 TO, 12.6 SPG), and you know Coach Huggins is salivating over the prospect of imposing his will on a seemingly overmatched Oklahoma roster. The Mountaineers do a great job of keeping their foot on the gas when they get a lead, as evidenced by their 26.7 point scoring margin (1st in NCAA). West Virginia’s scoring defense is also as good as it’s been in recent years (62.7 PPG, 17th in NCAA), as it’s not all about steals and turnovers this season. While Coach Huggins and the defense get the headlines, it’s the offense in Morgantown that’s made the Mountaineers elite this season. Averaging 89.1 PPG (3rd in NCAA) and fourth in the country in assist-to-turnover ratio, West Virginia has finally found a great balance with scoring options and ball security. The Mountaineers used to turn it over almost as much as they took it away (see their NCAA Tournament loss to Stephen F. Austin last season), but not this year: West Virginia possesses an otherworldly 13.3 turnover margin (twice as much as the #2 team in the nation). Boasting a team with no stars, the Mountaineers have ten players averaging double-digit minutes. Their leading scorer averages 12.4 PPG (Sophomore F Esa Ahmad). Perhaps the best indicator of how balanced this offense is (and hard to scout) is that West Virginia averages 65.9 FGA per game (6th in NCAA), yet no individual on the team averages 9.0 shots per game. In close games when minutes rise, Coach Huggins has relied on Ahmad, F Nathan Adrian (10.5 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 3.3 APG) and G Jevon Carter (11.1 PPG, 4.7 RPG, 3.1 SPG) as veterans to play heavy minutes. Carter leads the Big 12 and is fourth nationally in steals per game, while also working on a personal streak of eight straight games with double-figures. Unlike Oklahoma, six of West Virginia’s top seven scorers are upperclassmen.

Coach Lon Kruger undoubtedly has a very tall task ahead of him in trying to stay with the Mountaineers in Morgantown. That said, things are looking slightly up for the Sooners. Senior G Jordan Woodard (17.5 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 3.7 APG) is back healthy as the lone key holdover from last season’s Final Four team. Woodard had been injured for the start of conference play and, not surprisingly, Oklahoma went winless in that stretch (2-2 ATS). With his return on Jan. 10, the Sooners stuck with #2 Kansas at home (losing 81-70) and then ended a seven-game skid on Saturday in beating Texas Tech. Woodard had 27 points in Saturday’s win. He has had some success against West Virginia in his career, going for 23 points, four rebounds and eight assists as a freshman in Morgantown, however he only averaged 11.6 PPG in his three meetings against the Mountaineers last season. If the Sooners are to threaten the Mountaineers, they’ll have to minimize turnovers (as Texas Tech did in their upset win over West Virginia) and shoot the lights out from three, a strength of Oklahoma’s (38.3% 3PT, 50th in NCAA). The Sooners also have shown the ability to force turnovers and maybe they can give West Virginia some of their own medicine (7.8 SPG, 34th in NCAA). Woodard leads the way with 2.2 steals, while fellow Final Four contributor, junior C Kadeem Lattin (8.5 PPG, 5.9 RPG) also is a solid defender with 2.1 BPG and 1.6 SPG. Unfortunately Lattin hasn’t become the post presence on offense that Kruger had hoped, and it’s left Oklahoma begging for offense from underclassmen to supplement the play of Woodard. One such player has been Rashard Odomes (10.5 PPG, 3.9 RPG). A seldom-used freshman last season, Odomes has emerged into the lineup to play 30+ minutes in his last three games and scored a career-high 24 points (9-of-14 FG) along with eight rebounds and four assists in the win over Texas Tech. While Christian James (10.2 PPG) started out the season hot, he’s been ice cold (5-for-19 FG) his last four games, and his minutes have suffered. In his place has been freshman Kameron McGusty (7.6 PPG), scoring 13.4 PPG in his last four.


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