Tip-off: Tuesday, 7:30 p.m. ET
Line: Houston -7.5, Total: 220.0

The Heat will be looking to avoid a five-game losing streak when they host the Rockets on Tuesday.

Houston has been one of the best stories of the season, as head coach Mike D’Antoni has this team playing like a serious contender. The Rockets lost Dwight Howard in the offseason and signed SG Eric Gordon (17.9 PPG) and PF Ryan Anderson (14.0 PPG, 5.2 RPG). Those are not the types of moves that tend to move the needle, but D’Antoni’s system has proven to be perfect for SG James Harden (28.4 PPG, 11.7 APG, 8.2 RPG, 1.4 SPG). The Rockets are averaging 114.9 PPG (2nd in NBA), and their 25.7 APG (2nd in NBA) certainly helps. Houston will be hoping to make this game against Miami an up-tempo one, but the Heat might have other plans. They are averaging only 98.3 PPG this season (29th in NBA), and they allow only 102.8 PPG (9th in NBA). Miami will do its best to slow this game down, but that has not been a successful tactic against Houston this season. These two teams met twice last season, and each team won-and-covered when playing at home. The Rockets are, however, 3-1 both SU and ATS when facing the Heat over the past three seasons. Houston is also an impressive 15-4 ATS in road games where the total is greater than or equal to 210 under D’Antoni.

As previously mentioned, the Rockets offense is as potent as any in the league and James Harden is a huge reason for that. While people might argue differently, he is the only guy that should be in the MVP conversation right now. The Rockets are near the top of the Western Conference, and they are doing that with way less talent than some of their competition. Harden is a threat to put up a triple-double on any given night, and he does it way more efficiently than Russell Westbrook, who leads the league in triple-doubles. Harden is still as dangerous a scorer as ever, shooting 44.3% from the floor and 35.0% from three. His percentage from the outside is a bit down, but he is making a career high in threes per game. Harden should be in for another huge night on Tuesday, as nobody on the Heat is capable of really shutting him down. Gordon is another guy that Miami will likely have trouble with. He has been fantastic off the bench this season, knocking down 41.1% of his 9.0 threes attempted per game. Harden knows exactly where to find him and Gordon is playing with new confidence in Houston. Another guy to watch out for in this one is PF Montrezl Harrell (9.8 PPG, 4.0 RPG). Harrell has seen increased minutes in Clint Capela’s absence, and he is averaging 15.4 PPG, 5.0 RPG, 1.2 BPG and 1.2 SPG over the past five contests. He’ll need to be incredibly active in this one or Hassan Whiteside will dominate. Capela could, however, return in this game, as he is listed as questionable after a 15-game absence.

If the Heat are going to have any chance of beating the Rockets on Tuesday then both PG Goran Dragic (19.0 PPG, 6.4 APG, 3.8 RPG) and C Hassan Whiteside (17.5 PPG, 14.3 RPG, 2.2 BPG) will need to be on their games. Dragic will likely get up for this one, as he is going up against his former team. This is also exactly the type of game that fits his style, as Dragic loves to get down the floor in a hurry. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him score at least 25 on Tuesday. Whiteside, meanwhile, is not the type of guy that thrives in a game like this. He could, however, still dominate, as his size is unmatched by anybody on Houston’s roster. Whiteside should be able to use his body to get some easy buckets at the rim, and he could also give Harden some problems when driving. Another player that could help Miami pull off this upset is SG Tyler Johnson (13.9 PPG, 4.5 RPG, 3.2 APG, 1.2 SPG). Over the past five games, Johnson is averaging 15.6 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 1.2 BPG and 1.2 SPG for Miami. He is a very athletic player that rarely takes bad shots, and he could bother the Rockets’ guards in this one. It’d be big if he can knock down a few triples.