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MSU takes on OSU on Sunday
By: Dave Schoenholt - StatFox
Published: 1/14/2017  at  4:20:00 PM
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MICHGAN ST SPARTANS (12-6)

at OHIO ST BUCKEYES (10-7)

Value City Arena – Columbus, OH
Tip-off: Sunday, 1:30p.m. ET
Line:

Ohio State hopes to snap a four-game skid when they host Michigan State in a Big Ten clash on Sunday.

While it has been a rough season for both Coach Tom Izzo’s Spartans and Coach Thad Matta’s Buckeyes, these two familiar foes are definitely trending in two different directions. Michigan State has put their abysmal November behind them, going 8-2 (6-4 ATS) since the calendar flipped to December. They’re finally fully healthy with the return of injured freshman star Miles Bridges, who helped the Spartans topple #24 Minnesota on Wednesday night (65-47, MSU -3.5), for a season sweep of the Gophers. Ohio State, meanwhile, is in the midst of a four-game losing streak and will be without starting F Keita Bates Diop (9.7 PPG, 5.2 RPG) now for the rest of the season. Bates-Diop, a two-year starter for Coach Matta, came into the season banged up and missed five of the Buckeyes first 14 games before being ruled out for the season in January with a stress fracture. The Buckeyes have been much more competitive at home (9-2) than on the road (1-4), with both home losses coming against top 25 teams (UCLA, Purdue). Ohio State also took Virginia down to the wire earlier this season. That said, the Buckeyes are a abysmal 2-7 ATS in their last nine games and 0-4 (1-3 ATS) in Big Ten play this season, while Michigan State is 4-1 (4-1 ATS) in conference play. Michigan State has played one road game thus far in conference play, beating Minnesota 75-74 (MSU +4.5). The Spartans covered in a loss at Duke (78-69, MSU +13) in late November as well. Ohio State’s most recent letdown was Thursday evening in Madison, as the Badgers whitewashed the Buckeyes to the tune of 89-66 (OSU +10). Total trends are worth noting as the OVER is 5-0 in Ohio State’s last five games. Adding insult to injury, Michigan State has won the last five meetings against the Buckeyes and covered in each of the past six games (both trends dating back to 2014). In each of those contests, Michigan State was favored. Only one of those five wins for the Spartans were in Columbus, however, as two of them occurred on neutral courts in the Big Ten Tournament. The Over is 5-2 in the last seven times these two teams have met.

While the aforementioned Bridges (14.5 PPG, 8 RPG) is undoubtedly Michigan State’s most electric player and highly-regarded future pro, his injury (that cost him seven games) might’ve been a blessing in disguise for Coach Izzo’s Spartans. In Bridges’ absence, Michigan State went 6-1 and was able to develop more offensive threats from their previously unknown youthful roster. Now that Bridges has returned, he doesn’t have the be the do-it-all player that he was trying to replace in the departed All-American Denzel Valentine. Bridges took double-digit shot attempts in each of his first eight games as a Spartan and Michigan State was only 4-4 in that stretch. Since returning (and initially coming off the bench) Bridges hasn’t taken more than 10 shots in any of his three games, and his 5-for7 (2-for-3 3PT) evening against Minnesota for 16 points in 22 minutes on Wednesday was the most efficient performance of his career. The two Spartans who emerged in Bridges’ absence were fellow freshmen Nick Ward (13.6 PPG, 6.7 RPG) and Cassius Winston (6.8 PPG, 5.9 APG). Winston has steadied the offense, averaging just 2.3 turnovers per game while being thrown into the fire as a freshman point guard. The bruising Ward had a run of seven straight double-figure scoring games in December and has averaged 16.0 PPG and 7.6 RPG since Dec. 1. Inconsistent senior G Eron Harris (12.4 PPG) provides a boom-or-bust perimeter option for Michigan State. Unfortunately Harris has gone bust more often than not, recently, with four single-digit scoring efforts surrounding a 24-point outburst against Rutgers on Jan. 4. Both the Spartans and Buckeyes would rather not get in an up-and-down, high-scoring affair, and both defenses allow less than 70 points per game to their opponents. That said, Michigan State finds much easier ways to score than Ohio State, ranking sixth in the nation in assists per game and first in assists per field goals made. Against a team like Ohio State that tries to go one-on-one a lot, Michigan State’s conference-play defensive numbers (62.0 PPG) should stand up against the struggling Buckeyes.

Ohio State’s season numbers still show the profile of a very solid team: The Buckeyes boast a top 25 FG% defense (holding opponents to 41.8% from inside the arc, eighth in NCAA), they don’t foul often (44th in NCAA) and they’re a solid rebounding squad (38.9 RPG, 51st in NCAA). Ultimately, Coach Thad Matta’s issues arise from a lack of consistent offense and a painfully thin rotation that just seems to wear down in the middle of games and has no experience off the bench. Four players garner 30+ minutes for the Buckeyes, and Matta’s top three bench players are all freshmen. Seven-foot Trevor Thompson (10.7 PPG, 9.1 RPG, 2BPG) is a specimen, and pro scouts love his potential, but he’s consistently in foul trouble (3.2 FPG) causing him to play just 21 minutes per contest. Coach Matta can’t afford Thompson on the bench for such long stretches. To his credit, Thompson has improved recently in this aspect, with three games of 25+ minutes in Big Ten play. To no surprise, his production in these games has been great (15 points, 15 rebounds against Minnesota; 11 points, nine rebounds, four blocks against Wisconsin). Unfortunately Coach Matta hasn’t seen two of his main cogs develop, as F Marc Loving (11.2 PPG) and G JaQuan Lyle (11.7 PPG, 5.3 APG) haven’t really taken that “next step”. For the senior, Loving, it’s probably too late. A hyped scorer, Loving has had a mercurial career in Columbus involving suspensions and benchings. The senior is 5-for-18 from the field in his last two games for only 14 points combined. Lyle still has time to fulfill his top-50 promise out of high school. A natural scorer, converting the 6’5” sophomore to point guard has been a work-in-progress, and he can’t lose his scoring edge because Ohio State frankly needs the points wherever they can find them. One consistent spot for Ohio State is the relentless play of the unique Jae’Sean Tate (14.2 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 55% FG). At 6’4”, 230 pounds, Tate is a throwback who can guard almost any position on the floor and consistently mixes it up in the paint.


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