Carver-Hawkeye Arena – Iowa City, IA
Tip-off: Sunday, 2:15 pm ET
Line: N/A

Iowa looks to rebound against Michigan after getting thumped by Purdue in their Big Ten opener.

The Wolverines (4-6 ATS) open their Big Ten slate on the road against a wounded Iowa (4-6-1 ATS) team that just lost 89-67 at Purdue (Iowa +14.5) on Wednesday night. Michigan will have had 10 days off since their closer-than-expected 68-62 win over Furman (Mich -17.5) on Dec. 22. The Wolverines are 4-3 (2-4 ATS) on 3+ days rest this season as they’re also winless on the road (0-2, 0-2 ATS). Iowa, 7-2 (3-2-1 ATS) at Carver-Hawkeye Arena had won five straight, all at home, before meeting Purdue to start Big Ten play. The win over Furman marked Michigan’s third straight victory, fifth in their last six games (2-3 ATS). Both teams have not fared well against elite competition, Michigan losing by 18 points at UCLA (the only time the Wolverines were an underdog this season) while the Hawkeyes are 0-3 (0-3 ATS) against ranked opponents (Virginia, Notre Dame, Purdue). Recent history shows that Coach Fran McCaffery’s Hawkeyes have the upper hand against Michigan, with Iowa the victor the last four times these two teams have met (4-0 ATS). This includes two Iowa wins over Coach John Beilein’s Wolverines last season both on the road and at home. The ranked Hawkeyes were seven-point home favorites in a Jan. ’16 win (82-71) and then succeeded as 1.5-point underdogs in Ann Arbor in the last game before the 2016 Big Ten Conference Tournament (71-61). McCaffery is still just 5-7 (7-5 ATS) against Beilein as coach of the Hawkeyes, but 3-2 (4-1 ATS) in Carver-Hawkeye Arena. The total between these two teams has been OVER in four of the last six matchups.

Michigan boasts a much more stable roster than Iowa from a season ago, with the Wolverines returning the backcourt of Zak Irvin (14.1 PPG, 45.8% FG) and Derrick Walton Jr. (12.4 PPG, 3.8 APG, 93% FT). Irvin and Walton are experienced Big Ten seniors who’ve won on the road before and will look to take advantage of Iowa’s youth. Coach Beilein will no doubt pore over the tape of the Hawkeyes against Purdue and see a team taking ill-advised shots that has trouble scoring when star Peter Jok isn’t finding the range. That said, Iowa scores almost 20 points more per game at Carver-Hawkeye Arena (91.1) than they have in their two road games, so that film against a very good Purdue team could be taken with a grain of salt. Iowa had previously embarrassed in-state foes Iowa State and Northern Iowa at home, and shown a much-improved defensive effort (four of last five opponents under 36% FG) before running into Purdue. Purdue jumped on Iowa early on the strength of 10-for-17 shooting from three in the first 20 minutes, and shooting the three is something Michigan excels at (37.9% 3PT, 65th in NCAA; 9.6 3PM, 27th in NCAA). On defense, Michigan is stellar (60.8 PPG, 16th in NCAA) and will need a strong effort given Iowa’s strong home performances. Michigan is best in the country at avoiding fouls, which will be a huge weapon against a Hawkeye team (Jok, especially) that loves to get to the free throw line. Michigan’s size up front isn’t quite as potent as Swanigan and Haas for Purdue, but Moritz Wagner (11.5 PPG, 64% FG) and D.J. Wilson (8.5 PPG, 6.6 RPG, 1.4 BPG) are a 6’10” duo to contend with. Wagner has been especially hot lately, averaging 15.1 PPG over his last six games.

For Coach McCaffery it’s no secret that any talk about Iowa this season starts with G Peter Jok (21.9 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 40% 3PT). The 6’6” senior has seen his responsibility on offense grow with each season to the point where he’s now “the man”. Jok has grown from just a catch-and-shoot guy to someone who can get his shot on all three levels (as scouts like to say). That said, it’s worth keeping an eye on the fact that Jok tweaked his hip midway through an easy win over Delaware State on Dec. 22. He left the game for a bit but returned to score 17 points in 15 minutes, proverbially on autopilot. No excuses have been made for one of Jok’s worst games in the loss to Purdue, but 13 points (ties a season-low) and 1-of-7 shooting from three is a performance that Iowa can ill-afford to have continue. Thankfully the Hawkeyes did have a reason to celebrate even in defeat last Wednesday, as they got the return of arguably their second best player (F Tyler Cook – 13.4 PPG) after a seven-game absence. With 12 points in 22 minutes against the Big Ten’s best frontline, Cook looks ready to provide the Hawkeyes with the bouncy and physical threat up front that they previously lacked. It will be interesting to see how Cook meshes with fellow freshman F Cordell Pemsl (10.2 PPG, 5.1 RPG), as Pemsl averaged 13.1 PPG in the seven games Cook was injured. More of a traditional low-post threat, Pemsl and Cook could combine for an imposing frontcourt if McCaffery plays the two freshmen together. Iowa will look to get healthy on offense against a Michigan defense that doesn’t defend the three very well, as this game could very well come down to which team exploits the three point arc most effectively. Michigan allows opponents to shoot at a 37.9% 3PT clip, (279th in NCAA).