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#20 FSU faces #12 UVA at Paul Jones Arena
By: Dave Schoenholt - StatFox
Published: 12/30/2016  at  4:31:00 AM
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FLORIDA ST SEMINOLES (13-1)

VIRGINIA CAVALIERS (11-1)

John Paul Jones Arena – Charlottesville, VA
Tip-off: Saturday, 2:00 pm ET
Line: Virginia -9.0

#12 Virginia hosts #20 Florida State in a top 25 ACC clash on Saturday afternoon.

Coach Tony Bennett’s Virginia Cavaliers will be looking for their second top 25 conference win in a week, and the potential to vault inside the top 10, when they take on Coach Leonard Hamilton’s Seminoles on Saturday. The Cavaliers are fresh off beating #6 Louisville on the road (61-53, UVA +3) on Wednesday night to run their record to 11-1 (7-3 ATS). The win over the Cardinals was Virginia’s fourth straight (4-0 ATS). Virginia’s lone blemish this season did come at home on Dec. 3 (66-57, UVA -8) to West Virginia. Florida State will be making their first road trip of the season as the Seminoles look for their ninth straight victory. While Florida State has played a relatively soft schedule, their record features neutral court wins over Illinois and George Washington as well as a home defeat of then-# 21, Florida. Florida State kicked off ACC play after nine days off by beating Wake Forest on Wednesday night (88-72, FSU -7.5) The Seminoles have been favorites in every game this season (including their one loss to Temple – 89-86 on a neutral court), but Coach Hamilton’s crew finds themselves +9 on the road in Charlottesville. Florida State snapped a five-game losing streak to Virginia by winning at home (Jan. 2016) last season when these two teams played. The 69 points that the Seminoles scored (they won 69-62, FSU +3) was the most they’ve tallied against the Cavaliers since 2010 (11 games). The total has gone UNDER in this matchup seven of the past eight times. Virginia is 6-2 (5-3 ATS) in the past eight meetings with Florida State and is 5-0 (4-1 ATS) at home against the Seminoles since Jan. 2013. Coach Hamilton is 8-6 (7-7 ATS) against Coach Bennett, with Florida State taking the first six games (2-4 ATS) these two teams played with Hamilton and Bennett at the sidelines of their respective programs (between 2009 and 2012) before the tide turned to Virginia’s favor in recent years (as previously mentioned).

The Seminoles have been humming on offense recently, boasting four wins in which they shot over 50% FG and two in which they were north of 60% from the field. Their ultimate test will be against Virginia’s stifling pack line defense, a test they passed last year (albeit, in Tallahassee). The Seminoles were able to shoot an uncharacteristic 48.8% FG and 46% 3PT in their defeat of Virginia last January, led by 18 points and nine rebounds from Dwayne Bacon(17.4 PPG, 47.8% FG). The sophomore Bacon returns for the Seminoles to anchor a group that is 10th in the country in scoring offense (88.1 PPG) – a full 10 points per game higher than 2015-16. What worked in Wednesday’s win against Wake Forest for Florida State, will have a much tougher time working on the road against the nation’s best scoring defense. Florida State also got 23 points from Xavier Rathan-Mayes (10.9 PPG, 4.6 APG) in that contest, and rendered Wake Forest star John Collins ineffective with foul trouble. Virginia is a much more well-balanced unit and plays as good a mistake-free game as any team in the country. Florida State can’t count on going to the line 25 times per game (36th in NCAA) as they normally do. The Seminoles have proven that they can make shots, and they’ll have to do just that. Virginia is also mediocre on the glass, and that’s one way to maximize the few possessions (61.6, to be exact) that Virginia allows. Freshman F Jonathan Isaac (12.8 PPG, 7.2 RPG) will be a key on Saturday for Coach Hamilton’s attack. The pack line defense can catch seasoned veterans off guard and taking bad shots, how will the future NBA first round pick react in his first true road test? Can he help crash the boards, do the dirty work, and provide multiple offensive opportunities for the Seminoles?

G London Perrantes and the Cavaliers look to cap off a banner week with some revenge against the Seminoles. Perrantes (9.9 PPG, 4.5 APG) shot just 4-of-13 and committed four turnovers in Virginia’s loss in Tallahassee last season, even though he managed 19 total points. This season’s well-rounded Cavalier team boasts nine players garnering 15 minutes or more of playing time. One of those players, freshman G Kyle Guy (9.3 PPG, 58.1% 3PT) looks like a future Virginia great, as his sharpshooting ways have infused the Cavalier offense recently. Guy is 8-for-15 from downtown in his last four games, averaging 13.0 points per game in just 22.3 minutes per game. Virginia was led in scoring against Louisville on Wednesday by 6’5” G Devon Hall (10 points). Hall (6.3 PPG, 3.6 RPG) has played 30 minutes in Virginia’s two most recent wins (Louisville, California) and is averaging 5.7 RPG in his last three games. F Isaiah Wilkins (24.0 MPG, 1.6 SPG, 1.2 BPG) is the quintessential Virginia cog in the pack line defense; a guy who doesn’t need the ball on offense and can guard all five positions on defense. G Darius Thompson (7.8 PPG) is a capable offensive threat who could play a big role against the up-tempo Seminoles if Virginia finds themselves in need of points down the stretch. Thompson kept Virginia in the game (14 points, 3-for-6 3PT) in their one loss to West Virginia. Overall, you know what you’re getting with Virginia; the ultimate team effort, grit and grind on every defensive possession and high basketball IQ on offense (1.15 points per-possession, 40th in NCAA; 9.4 Turnovers/game, 2nd in NCAA). Virginia isn’t going to beat themselves, but Florida State won’t back away from a defense that couldn’t crack the Seminoles last season.


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