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Redskins host Giants in huge game on Sunday
By: Sam Chase - StatFox
Published: 12/30/2016  at  12:04:00 PM
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NEW YORK GIANTS (10-5)
at WASHINGTON REDSKINS (8-6)

FedEx Field – Landover, MD
Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Line: Washington -7.5, Total: 45

The Redskins could clinch a playoff spot in the NFC by beating the Giants on Sunday.

The Giants lost for the second time in four games last Saturday, falling 24-19 in Philadelphia to the Eagles (PHI +1.5), who entered the game 5-9. It came after two straight wins over teams that are currently in line for playoff spots in Dallas and Detroit. The Giants outgained Philly 470 total yards to 286 and picked up nine more first downs, but were done in by three turnovers. The loss dropped the Giants to 10-4 on the season and 8-7 against the spread. Thanks to Tampa Bay’s loss in New Orleans, the Giants clinched a playoff berth last weekend despite losing. For their regular season finale they get a division rival, and a desperate one at that in the Redskins. At 8-6-1 (10-5 ATS), Washington will get into the playoffs with a win, and can also get in with a loss if Green Bay and Tampa also lose this week. The Skins took care of business last week, mincing up the Chicago defense on the road to the tune of a 41-21 win (WAS -3). Washington gave up 458 yards of total offense, but countered with 478 of their own and, most critically, intercepted Bears QB Matt Barkley five times on the afternoon. Over the last 10 seasons, road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with winning records that have covered two of their last three games (NYG) are 36-17 ATS in the second half of the season against teams with winning records. In the same time span, road teams with winning records between .600 and .750 coming off a loss of seven points or fewer to a division opponent (NYG) are 31-9 Over against the total. CB Janoris Jenkins is questionable for the Giants for Sunday’s game, while S Su’a Cravens and CB Quinton Dunbar are doubtful for the Redskins. The Giants are expected to play their starters, although it is unclear for how long.

Giants QB Eli Manning (63.0 CMP%, 3,847 yards, 26 TDs, 16 INTs) has not come under much scrutiny thanks to the Giants’ success this season, but he has seen something of a drop-off in performance from his past couple campaigns. He has already thrown more interceptions than he did in either of the last two years, and his 6.74 yards per attempt are the lowest they’ve been since the 2007 season. He ranks 24th in the league in yards per attempt this year and 22nd in passer rating (86.2), and he has thrown the fourth most interceptions in the league. For some reason he attempted 63 passes against the Eagles—his previous high this year had been 46—and completed 38 of them for 356 yards, a touchdown and three interceptions. It was his sixth multi-interception game this year, and three of New York’s five losses have come in those games. His No. 1 target is the ultra-talented WR Odell Beckham Jr. (96 catches, 1,323 yards, 10 TDs). He is third in the NFL in receptions, second in receiving yards and fourth in receiving touchdowns. He is also third among all wide receivers in the league with 462 yards after the catch. In the Giants’ last four games, Beckham has been targeted 16 and 20 times in their two losses and eight and nine times in their wins. There’s hardly been a game this season where he hasn’t had some sort of emotional outburst, so one has to wonder how he’ll handle going up against an old adversary in Redskins CB Josh Norman. WRs Sterling Shepard (62 catches, 653 yards, 8 TDs) and Victor Cruz (37 catches, 579 yards, TD) are the other two wideouts in New York’s customary three-receiver set. The running game has failed to gain traction behind RBs Rashad Jennings (163 carries, 541 yards, 2 TDs) and Paul Perkins (91 carries, 354 yards), although Perkins did have a season-high 68 yards last weekend. The Giants’ defense is 11th in the league with 353.4 yards allowed per game and third with 18.3 points allowed per game. Jenkins and S Landon Collins were both named starters in the Pro Bowl.

It’s hard to believe, but Washington QB Kirk Cousins (67.3 CMP%, 4,630 yards, 24 TDs, 10 INTs) is only (“only”) a 370-yard passing day against the Giants away from becoming the sixth quarterback in NFL history to pass for 5,000 yards in a season. He’s second in the league this season in passing yards, fifth in completion percentage, third in yards per attempt (8.11) and sixth in passer rating (98.6). He has completed at least 60% of his passes in all but two games this season, and he has only thrown two interceptions once, in the season opener. He laid an egg against the Panthers two weeks ago, completing 32 of 47 passes for 315 passes and an interception, but was much more precise against the Bears last week, completing 18 of 29 for 270 yards and a touchdown. He has three 800-yard receivers, the leader of whom, WR DeSean Jackson (54 catches, 971 yards, 4 TDs) has come on remarkably hot as of late. After grabbing five catches for 114 yards against the Bears, he’s currently riding his first ever streak of three consecutive 100-yard games. He’s as good of a deep threat as he’s ever been, averaging 25.2 yards per catch in his last five games. He is joined out wide by WRs Pierre Garcon (75 catches, 945 yards, 3 TDs) and Jamison Crowder (65 catches, 831 yards, 7 TDs). Crowder has been quiet recently, but Garcon has seen some of his best games come towards the end of the season. It is arguable that none of these three is Cousins’ greatest receiving weapon, as TE Jordan Reed (61 catches, 646 yards, 5 TDs) is a beast when fully healthy. He sat out against Chicago with a shoulder injury, but even in recent games he has played in has clearly not been 100%. The running game is anchored by RB Robert Kelley (156 carries, 671 yards, 6 TDs), whose performance has been something of a bellwether for the team’s fortune: he is rushing for 4.9 yards per carry in wins and 3.0 yards per carry in losses. On defense, the Redskins are 29th in the league with 380.9 yards allowed per game and 22nd with 24.3 points allowed per game. DE Ryan Kerrigan leads the team with 11.0 sacks.


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