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Bucks, Timberwolves meet on Friday night
By: Sam Chase - StatFox
Published: 12/30/2016  at  7:15:00 AM
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MILWAUKEE BUCKS (15-15)

at MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES (10-22)

Tip-off: Friday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Minnesota -2, Total: 209

Some of the league’s most exciting young players meet up Friday night in Minneapolis.

The Milwaukee Bucks got a big win on Wednesday night, clobbering division rival Detroit 119-94 on the road (MIL +3.5). The Bucks improved to 15-15 with the win (14-16 ATS), and currently sit in eighth place in a packed Eastern Conference—Chicago and Atlanta are both 16-16, and the Knicks are 16-15. Milwaukee outplayed Detroit in almost every facet of the game, outshooting them from the floor 57.1% to 44.3% and 50% to 25% from three-point range. They forced 11 Pistons turnovers and only committed seven of their own, and scored 15 fast break points while only allowing four to Detroit. The Bucks are back in action Friday night, taking to the road to play a Minnesota team that could be considered their Western Conference counterpart in that they similarly have loads of young talent. Minnesota is a disappointing 10-22 this season (13-19 ATS), putting them in last place in the Northwest Division and 13th of the 15 teams in the West. They lost for the third time in four games on Wednesday night, losing 105-103 on the road to the sub-.500 Denver Nuggets (MIN +4). The Timberwolves outrebounded Denver and forced nearly as many turnovers as they committed, but were outshot from the field 51.9% to 44.7%. Over the last five seasons, teams coming off of wins as a road underdog (MIL) are 109-172 ATS. On the other hand, road favorites off a win of 10 or more points over a division rival that are playing their third road game in five days (MIL) are 24-2 ATS since 1996. PF Mirza Teletovic is questionable to play in Friday night’s game due to a concussion.

The Bucks have the NBA’s 11th-most efficient offense, scoring 108.6 points per 100 possessions. Their defense is also on the edge of the top third of the league, ranking 10th with a defensive efficiency rating of 106 points allowed per 100 possessions. Averaging 95.9 possessions per 48 minutes, they play with the NBA’s 18th-fastest pace. The man who pushes that tempo? SF Giannis Antetokounmpo (23.4 PPG, 9.0 RPG, 5.9 APG, 2.0 SPG, 1.8 BPG), who is effectively the team’s point guard despite standing 6-foot-11. The Greek Freak leads his team in points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks; he’s 15th in the league in scoring, fifth in steals and, among small forwards, first in rebounding. He also attempts the league’s ninth most free throws at 7.7 a game and makes 79.1% of them. He is on a nine-game streak of scoring at least 20 points, and he had a season-high 39 against the Wizards on Dec. 23. With SG Khris Middleton, the team’s leading scorer last year, expected to miss most of this season, the Bucks needed another scorer to step up. Third-year PF Jabari Parker (20.3 PPG, 5.8 RPG) has done so emphatically, living up to his status as a former No. 2 overall pick. He had 31 against the Pistons on Wednesday. No one else on the team averages 10 PPG; C Greg Monroe (9.7 PG, 6.7 RPG, 1.2 SPG), SG Tony Snell (8.8 PPG, 4.1 RPG) and SF Michael Beasley (8.2 PPG, 3.6 RPG) are the closest. Monroe only sees the floor 19.6 minutes per game and Snell has a concerningly low Player Efficiency Rating of 9.2. Rookie SG Malcolm Brogdon (7.9 PPG, 3.3 APG, 43.8 3P%) is already a strong perimeter defender and has been a pleasant surprise on offense.

Averaging 109 points per 100 possessions, the Timberwolves have the ninth-most efficient offense in the NBA. The problem is their defense, which is the fourth worst in the league with an efficiency rating of 111.1 points allowed per 100 possessions. They play a relatively slow pace at 94.6 possessions per 48 minutes (23rd in NBA). While their record this season has been worse than they hoped, their young talent remains just as promising as it was a year ago. They still appear to have a future MVP candidate on their hands in C Karl-Anthony Towns (22.0 PPG, 11.3 RPG, 1.4 BPG). The recently-turned 21-year old Towns is eighth in the league in rebounding and leads all NBA centers in scoring. He has shown a variety of ways in which he can dominate this season. On Nov. 30, he had a 47-point, 18-rebound game against the Knicks that terrified any opposing GMs planning on competing for titles in 2018 and beyond. And on Wednesday against the Nuggets, he responded to double- and triple-teams in the post by notching his first career triple-double with 15 points, 11 rebounds and 10 assists. Scoring in almost equal amounts as Towns are fellow young guns SF Andrew Wiggins (21.8 PPG, 4.2 RPG) and SG Zach LaVine (21.0 PPG, 40.8 3P%). Together, they form one of only three NBA trios with three players averaging over 20 points per game. LaVine hit seven threes against the Kings on Dec. 23 to put up a career-high 40 points. PF Gorgui Dieng (10.5 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 1.3 BPG) helps Towns defend the paint and the glass, and PG Ricky Rubio (7.4 PPG, 4.3 RPG, 7.2 APG, 1.7 SPG) runs the offense. Rubio’s 7.4 points per game are easily a career low, and his 7.2 assists per game are narrowly a career low.


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