Ford Field – Detroit, MI
Kickoff: Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line: Green Bay -3.5, Total: 49.5

Winner gets the NFC North title. Loser goes home—well, maybe.

The Packers won their fifth straight game last week to keep their playoff hopes alive last weekend, avenging an early-season loss against the Vikings with a 38-25 win over their division rivals at Lambeau Field (GB -6). The Packers secondary was once again exposed, allowing Minnesota quarterback Sam Bradford to have his best game of the season with 382 passing yards and three touchdowns, and WR Adam Thielen to have the best game of his career with 202 yards and two touchdowns. It didn’t matter, though, and the final score is actually deceptive in how close it makes the game seem: Green Bay led 38-13 before two garbage time touchdowns by Minnesota. Now 9-6 (9-6 ATS), the Packers must finish what they started with this winning streak and beat Detroit this week to win the NFC North and secure a playoff spot. They can also get in as a Wild Card with a Redskins loss this week. The Lions face a similar situation: They will win the division with a victory against the Packers on Sunday night, and they will get a berth regardless if Washington loses. The 9-6 Lions (7-7-1 ATS) find themselves in this predicament after two straight losses, the latest of which came as a 42-21 beatdown at the hands of the Cowboys this past Monday night. Over the last five seasons, road teams that have covered the spread in three of their last four games (GB) are 23-5 ATS in games played in the last two weeks of the season. Over the last five seasons, teams coming off a win against division opponents (GB) are 76-35 Under against the total when playing against another division opponent. RB Theo Riddick, CB Darius Slay and C Travis Swanson are questionable for the Lions, while C J.C. Tretter and WR Randall Cobb are questionable for the Packers.

Midway through November, the Packers were 4-6 and most had ruled them out of making a run at the playoffs, let alone a division title. Weeks later, they’re being called the team that no one wants to see in the playoffs before even qualifying. What’s changed? Well, QB Aaron Rodgers (65.5 CMP%, 4,128 yards, 36 TDs, 7 INTs) went from having one of his worst stretches in recent memory to suddenly playing so well that he entered the MVP conversation despite that stretch. Rodgers is first in the league in passing touchdowns, fourth in passing yards and fifth in passer rating (102.7). He had a near-perfect day against the Vikings, completing 28 of 38 passes for 347 yards and four touchdowns, and also scrambling for a rushing touchdown. He has thrown multiple touchdowns in nine of his last 10 games, and he has thrown at least three touchdowns in seven games this season. As good as he’s been, it is hard to separate his performance from that of his No. 1 receiver, WR Jordy Nelson (91 catches, 1,191 yards, 14 TDs). It would be hard to argue with anyone who said Nelson has been the best receiver in the NFL this season, as he is fifth in the league in receptions, sixth in receiving yards and first in touchdown receptions. It’s no coincidence that him and Rodgers both have a knack for making big plays; the duo may have saved the team’s season with a 60-yard bomb to set up the game-winning field goal against the Bears two weeks ago. Cobb (60 catches, 610 yards, 4 TDs) and WR Davante Adams (66 catches, 960 yards, 10 TDs) also see plenty of targets from Rodgers. RB Ty Montgomery (69 carries, 413 yards, 3 TDs), a converted wide receiver, seemed to break through in the Bears game with 162 yards and two touchdowns on 16 carries, but it was the only game in which he’s broken 50 rushing yards since early November. On defense, the Packers are 20th in the NFL with 361 yards allowed per game and 22nd with 24.3 points allowed per game. S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix was named a Pro Bowl starter, and LB Nick Perry leads the team with 10 sacks.

While his numbers might not stack up with those of the Rodgers, Ryans and Bradys of the league, Detroit QB Matthew Stafford (65.5 CMP%, 3,980 yards, 22 TDs, 9 INTs) has had an excellent year and led the Lions to several victories that he may not have in past seasons. He has particularly improved in regards to turnovers; if he avoids committing any on Sunday, it will be his first season with a single-digit interception total. (Such a number is not only impressive by his own standards; the list of NFL QBs with fewer than 10 interceptions this season is limited to the league’s best quarterbacks and those who haven’t played complete seasons.) He is seventh in the NFL in passing yards, 10th in completion percentage and 13th in passer rating (91.3). He has, however, struggled recently, which is not a coincidence in relation to the team’s recent struggles. He’s gone two straight games without a passing touchdown, and he has thrown one total touchdown and three interceptions in his last three games. Remarkably, he has five receivers with at least 50 receptions on the year: WR Golden Tate (85 catches, 1,000 yards, 3 TDs), WR Marvin Jones (50 catches, 854 yards, 4 TDs), TE Eric Ebron (55 catches, 650 yards, TD), WR Anquan Boldin (63 catches, 527 yards, 7 TDs) and Riddick (53 catches, 371 yards, 5 TDs). It has been a group effort to replace the retired Calvin Johnson, as last year only three Lions had 50-plus catches. Tate has 125 targets, many of them on shorter routes, while Jones is fifth in the league with 17.1 yards per catch. Ebron is 10th among NFL tight ends this year in receiving yards. The running game has been largely ineffective since starter Ameer Abdullah was lost very early in the year. With Riddick (92 carries, 357 yards, TD) out recently, RBs Dwayne Washington (90 carries, 265 yards, TD) and fullback-shaped Zach Zenner (68 carries, 265 yards, 3 TDs) have split carries. Zenner had a season-high 67 rushing yards for two touchdowns against the Cowboys. The Lions defense is 15th in the NFL with 348.5 yards allowed per game and 13th with 21.8 points allowed per game. LB Tahir Whitehead is 10th in the league with 125 total tackles and Slay leads the team with 13 passes defended.