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Tennessee, A&M meet in Reed Arena Thursday
By: Dave Schoenholt - StatFox
Published: 12/28/2016  at  5:41:00 AM
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TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS (7-5)

at TEXAS A&M AGGIES (8-3)

Reed Arena – College Station, TX
Tip-off: Thursday, 7:00pm ET
Line: Texas A&M -9.5

Texas A&M opens their fourth season in the SEC when they play host to Tennessee on Thursday evening.

Texas A&M and Tennessee both enter conference play still looking for a signature win to be taken seriously as a league contender. The host Aggies, 6-1 (1-2 ATS) at home this season have faltered in chances to topple three Pac 12 ranked foes (USC, UCLA, Arizona) while the Volunteers, 2-1 (3-0 ATS) on the road, have fallen in their four opportunities against ranked teams this season (Oregon, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Gonzaga). Texas A&M and Tennessee each own one win against Power 7 conference teams (Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech, respectively). Coach Rick Barnes’s Volunteers (6-2 ATS over their last 8) were last seen defeating East Tennessee State on the road (Tenn +3.5) 72-68 on Dec. 22 while Coach Billy Kennedy’s Aggies last played on the 21st, walloping St. Francis (PA) at home, 81-58. Each team took losses prior to those last wins before the holiday break: Tennessee losing to Gonzaga at home (86-76, Tenn +8) and Texas A&M losing to Arizona (in Houston) (67-63, A&M -3). On 3+ days rest this season, Texas A&M is 4-2 (1-2 ATS) while Tennessee is 3-3 (4-2 ATS). Historically, Texas A&M has taken the last four meetings (3-0-1 ATS) since Tennessee last won in Feb. 2013 (in Reed Arena). These two teams have hit the Over six out of the past seven times they’ve played. Last seasons win for Texas A&M in Knoxville featured the Aggies coming back from a 13-point second-half deficit to win 92-88 (Tenn +4) with both teams shooting near 50% from the field.

Coach Barnes has struggled to replace departed stars Kevin Punter Jr. and Armani Moore with a loose rotation of 10 players who average 11.7 minutes per game or more. Leading the way is senior F Robert Hubbs III (15.5 PPG, 52.9% FG, 88.9% FT). Hubbs III came into Knoxville as a highly decorated recruit and is finally filling his potential as the go-to guy in the Volunteers’ attack. Hubbs III has only scored more than 12 points once in the Volunteers five games against Power 7 foes, so the senior will have to step up in conference play if Tennessee wants to stay above water. Averaging 77.7 PPG (68th NCAA), yet out of the top 100 in most major offensive categories, Tennessee derives effective offense by squeezing every drop they can out of the free throw line 19.3 FTM (14th in NCAA), 75.2% FT (39th in NCAA). Tennessee’s biggest challenge will be defending their opponent’s talented frontcourt. Unfortunately the Volunteers don’t boast the standout forwards that Texas A&M does, as their leading rebounder and rim protector is 6’5” freshman F Grant Williams (10.3 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.8 BPG). Reserve forwards Kyle Alexander (3.8 RPG, 1.1 BPG) at 6’10” and senior Lew Evans (2.8 PPG, 23 points last three games) at 6’7” will be called on for expanded roles against the Aggies behemoths. Keep an eye on freshman G Jordan Bone (9.3 PPG), who’ll be returning from injury. Bone was injured in Tennessee’s third game of the season and hasn’t played since, but he scored 21 points in a season-opening win against Chattanooga.

Coach Kennedy will look to exploit the Aggies size advantage against Tennessee on Thursday night. While the Volunteers rotation gives them solid rebounding numbers, they can’t contend with the talent that Texas A&M boasts if their stars can stay on the floor. The Aggies boast a stellar defense (63.8 PPG, 32nd in NCAA) and a team that can inflict their tempo on offense by taking care of the ball 1.59 assist-to-turnover ratio (10th in NCAA) and getting second chance opportunities (12.3 Off Reb/Game, 15th in NCAA). Going into the paint to the likes of 6’10”, 270 lb Tyler Davis (15.1 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 63% FG in 23 minutes), Robert Williams (10.9 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 2.5 BPG), Tonny Trocha-Morelos (9.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG) and DJ Hogg (12.5 PPG, 4.9 RPG) has led to Texas A&M getting 58.5% of their points per game via two point field goals (17th in NCAA). The Aggies are mostly ineffective from the perimeter (274th in NCAA from 3) but Tennessee’s three-point defense is equally leaky, which could open up some opportunities for the Aggies to straighten out their long distance shooting. The key for Texas A&M’s dominance will be to keep Davis on the floor, as Tennessee boasts a team of players looking to drive and create contact to get to the free throw line. Overall, the Aggies as a team are very good at keeping fouls to a minimum (15.9 fouls per game, 25th in NCAA), but Davis – being so integral to the Aggies success – can ill-afford to collect two early first-half fouls against a conference opponent that Texas A&M should beat at home.


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