University of Phoenix Stadium – Glendale, AZ
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Ohio State -3, Total: 59

Two teams with CFP experience clash in a national semifinal in Glendale on New Year’s Eve.

The back half of the New Year’s Eve College Football Playoff doubleheader is fittingly as good of a matchup as we’ve seen in college football all year, as Ohio State and Clemson square off on Saturday night for a spot in the national title game. The Buckeyes enter the contest riding high off of the program’s biggest win since it won the national title two years ago, a 30-27 overtime win over archrival Michigan (MICH +3.5) that secured them a spot in this very playoff. It was their fifth straight win since their lone loss of the year, a 24-21 loss at Penn State (PSU +17.5) on October 23rd. Ohio State finished the year 11-1 and 6-6 against the spread, with an early-season blowout win at Oklahoma that bolstered an already difficult Big Ten schedule. Their postseason opponent, Clemson, is also coming off a big win, a 42-35 victory over Virginia Tech in the ACC championship game (VT +11). Like Ohio State, their lone loss of the season, a 43-42 defeat to Pittsburgh (PITT +21.5), came as a three-score favorite to a conference opponent. Like Ohio State, their biggest win of the season was against a conference rival on a national stage, a 42-36 triumph over Louisville (CLEM +1). And—just one more—like Ohio State, they got a big early-season win out of conference, by beating Auburn 19-13 on opening weekend (AUB +8.5). As head coach of Ohio State, Urban Meyer is 6-1 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3, and 4-2 ATS in neutral site games. Dabo Swinney is 6-1 ATS at Clemson as a neutral field underdog, and 12-4 Under against the total when coming off a game in which at least 70 points were scored. For Clemson, DE Richard Yeargin and DT Scott Pagano are both considered probable to play in this game.

Depending on your perspective, Ohio State QB J.T. Barrett (61.9 CMP%, 2,428 yards, 24 TDs, 5 INTs; 194 carries, 847 yards, 9 TDs) had either a great season or a disappointing one. Of course, for a player of his stature, the two are not mutually exclusive. And, considering the Buckeyes’ record and presence in the CFP, it’s probably more appropriate to focus on “great.” He was tied for third in the conference in completion percentage, third in passing touchdowns and third in passer rating (140.8). He was also 12th in the conference in rushing yards—first among quarterbacks. It’s worth exploring what went wrong, though, especially considering he was a legitimate Heisman contender two seasons ago when OSU won the title. That year, he threw for 9.03 yards per attempt; this year, his average was 7.02. And in 2014, he threw 10 more touchdowns than he has so far this year on about 30 fewer pass attempts. What’s most concerning, however, is Barrett’s performance in his last two games of which was against 3-9 Michigan State—he completed 46.3% of his passes for 105.0 yards per game. It’s tempting to proclaim that such a stat line won’t cut it against Clemson, but it did suffice against a top five Michigan team, so who knows? The star of the OSU offense is H-back Curtis Samuel (65 catches, 822 yards, 7 TDs; 91 carries, 704 yards, 8 TDs), who was named an AP All-American “all-purpose player” this season. He has scored at least one touchdown in six straight games and all but two games this season. The Buckeyes have an excellent traditional running back, too, in Mike Weber (177 carries, 1,072 yards, 9 TDs). Weber is fifth in the Big Ten in rushing yards despite being only 10th in carries. He had a season-low 26 yards on 11 carries against Michigan. Aside from Samuel, Barrett has thrown the ball to WR Noah Brown (30 catches, 385 yards, 7 TDs), WR Dontre Wilson (27 catches, 352 yards, 5 TDs) and TE Marcus Baugh (24 catches, 269 yards, 2 TDs). On defense, Ohio State ranks fifth in the country in total defense (282 yards allowed per game) and third in the country in scoring defense (14.2 points allowed per game). DE Tyquan Lewis, LB Raekwon McMillan, S Malik Hooker and CB Marshon Lattimore were all First Team All-Big Ten selections.

For the second straight year, Clemson QB Deshaun Watson (67.6 CMP%, 3,914 yards, 37 TDs, 15 INTs; 129 carries, 529 yards, 6 TDs) finished the year as a candidate for the Heisman Trophy. He is seventh in the nation in passing yards, ninth in completion percentage and tied for seventh in touchdown passes. He finished fourth in the ACC in passer rating (154.0, ahead of Heisman winner Lamar Jackson) and fourth among conference quarterbacks in rushing yards. He also threw the most interceptions of anyone in the ACC, four more than anyone else. His game against Louisville represents the ideal outcome of his style of play: he completed 20 of 31 passes for 306 yards, five touchdowns and three interceptions—and a season-high 91 rushing yards—in a win over one of the best teams in the country. His game against Pittsburgh represents the opposite: He attempted an astounding 70 passes for 580 yards and three touchdowns, but threw three picks and ran for a season-low eight yards in a loss to a middling conference opponent. One big difference between this year’s Clemson team and last year’s is the addition of WR Mike Williams (84 catches, 1,171 yards, 10 TDs), an elite wideout who missed last year due to injury. He has posted 100 yards in four of his last seven games, including a dominant 15-catch, 202-yard outing in the loss to Pitt. TE Jordan Leggett (38 catches, 637 yards, 7 TDs) is one of the most dangerous in the nation, and WRs Deon Cain (32 catches, 621 yards, 9 TDs), Artavis Scott (71 catches, 592 yards, 5 TDs), Ray-Ray McCloud (45 catches, 445 yards, 2 TDs) and Hunter Renfrow (29 catches, 353 yards, 4 TDs) are all liable to go off in any given game—as evidenced by Renfrow’s two touchdowns in last year’s title game. RB Wayne Gallman (196 carries, 1,002 yards, 15 TDs) is back spearheading the rushing attack, and he makes the most of his touches, as he has the second-fewest carries of the ACC’s six 1,000-yard rushers this season. He is on the same streak as OSU’s Samuel, having scored a touchdown in six straight games and having scored in all but two games this year. On defense, the Tigers are ninth in the country in yards allowed (314 per game) and 12th in points allowed (18.4 per game) despite playing in a conference with plenty of high-powered offenses. LB Ben Boulware, CB Cordrea Tankersley and S Jadar Johnson were all First Team All-ACC honorees this year. DT Dexter Lawrence and DE Christian Wilkins made the second team.