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#22 Oregon faces UNLV on Saturday
By: Dave Schoenholt - StatFox
Published: 12/16/2016  at  2:20:00 PM
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UNLV RUNNIN’ REBELS (6-4)

OREGON DUCKS (9-2)

Moda Center – Portland, OR
Tip-off: Saturday, 11:00 pm ET
Line: N/A

#22 Oregon looks to avoid a December loss to UNLV as a ranked team for the second straight season when they take on the Runnin’ Rebels in Portland on Saturday night.

UNLV will have a tough task to upset Oregon for the second season in a row. Four of the Runnin’ Rebels five starters from 2015 have gone on to play pro basketball while their fifth starter last season (F Dwayne Morgan) is questionable to play on Saturday night with a shoulder injury. Injuries to Morgan and F Christian Jones (questionable; shoulder) leave an already-thin UNLV roster even more at a disadvantage. Jones, a transfer from St. John’s averaging 10.0 PPG and 6.0 RPG, played the first three games of the season and then tried to return from his injuries on Dec. 10th against Duke, only to exit again reinjuring his shoulder. UNLV was able to get a team effort (five players in double figures) to handle Incarnate Word at home (92-64, UNLV -8) on Wednesday night. The Runnin’ Rebels are 0-3 (1-2 ATS) against Power 7 foes this season, losing handily to Duke (94-45, UNLV +24.5) in Las Vegas, as well as a 97-73 loss at Arizona State (UNLV +7). UNLV played TCU close on a neutral floor on Thanksgiving, losing 63-59 (UNLV +5.5). Oregon has reeled off seven straight wins (2-4 ATS) since their last loss on Nov. 21 to Georgetown in the Maui Invitational (65-61, Oregon -9). The Ducks are 7-1 with star F Dillon Brooks back in the fold, boasting wins over Tennessee, Connecticut and Alabama in that span. Oregon’s only other loss was to then-unranked (now undefeated and No. 4) Baylor in Waco. While this game will not officially be a home game for Oregon, the Moda Center – home of the NBA’s Trail Blazers – is a two-hour drive from the Ducks’ home in Eugene, OR. Oregon is 7-1 (3-5 ATS) as a favorite this season while UNLV is 0-3 (1-2 ATS) as an underdog. Although there is no official line, this game is expected to have Oregon favored by double-digits (the Ducks are 2-5 ATS when favored by 10 or more this season). Oregon is 2-1 (2-1 ATS) in the three meetings between these two teams since 2007.

Coach Dana Altman has the Ducks hitting on all cylinders as they welcome UNLV to Portland. Yes, they failed to cover in their last two home games (Alabama, Montana) but with Dillon Brooks (12.3 PPG) back, they’ve cleared 44% FG in each of their last seven games and shot better than 51% in three of those. Brooks isn’t even back to full strength as evidenced by Coach Altman managing his minutes and a decrease in shot attempts. However, just having the threat of the All-Pac 12 first teamer from a season ago back on the floor opens up opportunities for the rest of the Ducks. F Chris Boucher (14.1 PPG, 7.8 RPG, 3.2 BPG) is having an all-league type season himself as a senior. Boucher is 10th in the nation in blocks per game and is coming off arguably the best game of his career (23 points, 19 rebounds, five blocks) in the win over Montana. With Boucher and Jordan Bell (8.6 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 2.5 BPG) protecting the basket, Oregon boasts the best rim-protection in the country (8.6 BPG). 14 % of attempted FG against the Ducks get swatted away. Expect Boucher and Bell to have a field day on the defensive side of the paint against UNLV’s undersized front line. In the backcourt, Oregon relies on sophomore Tyler Dorsey (13.5 PPG, 42% 3PT) and sixth-year senior Dylan Ennis (11.0 PPG, 3.2 APG). Between injuries and transfers, it feels like Ennis (the older brother of third-year NBA pro Tyler Ennis) has been in school forever. Ennis provides a steady option at point guard that allows Dorsey to play his natural two-guard position. Duke and Arizona State’s guard play decimated UNLV’s defense earlier this season, and look for Oregon to try and do the same.

UNLV can ill-afford to go cold from the field like they did against Duke (29.7% FG) and Arizona State (39.7% FG). Unfortunately scoring in the paint against the long-limbed Ducks is an unenviable task, therefore UNLV will have to work on creating easy baskets off turnovers and hope that their perimeter shooting is locked in from the tip. Oregon is vulnerable to sloppy ball handling (15.0 TO/G, 258th NCAA), but can UNLV capitalize? In an effort to balance out scoring, first year Coach Marvin Menzies had leading scorer Jalen Poyser (16.1 PPG, 3.9 APG, 42% 3PT) and fellow starter Kris Clyburn (9.3 PPG) come off the bench against Incarnate Word. The ploy worked as UNLV racked up 92 points on 47.7% FG (45.0% 3PT), as Poyser and Clyburn’s replacements stepped up, while Clyburn posted a double-double. Unfortunately Poyser slumped to a six-point outing, and they’ll need a lot more from their sophomore leader against a team like Oregon if the Runnin’ Rebels are to compete. Senior F Tyrell Green (12.8 PPG, 6.2 RPG) has been a mainstay as a starter this season for Menzies after playing sparingly (5.6 MPG) last season. Green posted his first collegiate double-double (21 points, 10 rebounds) on Wednesday against Incarnate Word. Keep an eye on 6’11” freshman Cheickna Dembele (3.0 PPG) who got his first meaningful minutes of the season against Incarnate Word on Wednesday night. His frame could be put to lots of use against the frontcourt size and athleticism of Oregon on Saturday after his 13-point, seven-rebound performance Wednesday night. Staying out of foul trouble will be a big hurdle for the young big man against an experienced talent like Boucher. Another freshman, 6’8” Troy Baxter Jr. (4.4 PPG) contributed nicely in his first start on Wednesday (12 points, eight rebounds, two blocks) as Coach Menzies has continually worked his rotations to find the best combination of pieces on this rebuilding team. Keep in mind that if the aforementioned Dwayne Morgan (9.4 PPG, 7.3 RPG) is healthy, he will certainly get minutes as the most experienced frontcourt player UNLV has.


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