The Pavilion at Ole Miss – Oxford, MI
Tip-off: Thursday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Ole Miss -9.0

Two struggling squads in Murray State and Ole Miss look to salvage a win on Thursday night in Oxford.

Ole Miss has lost two of its last three games while Thursday’s counterpart, Murray State, has dropped four of their last six. The Racers are a sub-.500 team against Division 1 opponents, their most recent win coming Monday night over Bethel (TN) an NAIA school. Murray State is 0-4 (1-3 ATS) on the road while Ole Miss is 4-1 (1-4 ATS) at home. The Rebels are coming off a road loss to Virginia Tech on Sunday (80-75, Ole Miss +9.5) where they came back from 14 down in the second half to pull within one point with a minute left before Virginia Tech pulled the game out of reach. Prior to that, Ole Miss bounced back on their home court with an 85-77 (Ole Miss -4) win over Memphis on Dec. 3 after a home blemish (77-62, Ole Miss -6) coming at the hands of Middle Tennessee State on Nov. 30. It was the Rebels’ lone loss this season as a favorite 6-1 (2-5 ATS). Ole Miss will be Murray State’s first Power 7 opponent this season. The Racers are 1-3 (2-2 ATS) as underdogs, their lone win coming in the season opener (Nov 11) at home against Illinois State. The last time Murray State went on the road, they got clobbered (78-46, Murray +3) at Evansville on Saturday. They shot 27.8% FG at Evansville, a season-low, and had almost a 1:2 assist-to-turnover ratio. The Racers did keep their previous two road games before Evansville close, losing an overtime affair at Southern Illinois (89-85, Murray +2.5) on Nov. 29 and a one-point heartbreaker at Bowling Green (78-77, Murray -2.5) on Nov. 21. The Rebels and Racers have a common opponent (and loss) in Middle Tennessee State, as Murray State’s lone road cover was a defeat against the Blue Raiders (87-81, Murray +9) on Nov. 15. Ole Miss and Murray State last met previously in 2010 in Oxford, as the Rebels took that contest 77-61 (Ole Miss -5).

Coach Matt McMahon hasn’t enjoyed the success of his predecessor, Steve Prohm (Iowa State) and was tasked with replacing his two leading scorers from last season’s 17-14 team. Thankfully McMahon had the luxury of former Tulane G Jonathan Stark (20.6 PPG, 5.5 APG) waiting after a transfer season off. The 6’0’’ dynamo leads the team in points and assists per game while shooting a phenomenal 44.9% from 3PT (3.1 per game). Stark brings big-time experience playing against the likes of Louisville and UConn in the American Athletic Conference and could vie for player of the year honors in the OVC. Unfortunately after Stark, the complementary seniors that Coach McMahon has haven’t taken statistical jumps needed to be competitive. G DaMarcus Croaker (11.0 PPG) is a nice player, but hasn’t shown the Big 12 pedigree and dominance at a lower level in his second season as a Racer after transferring from Texas. G Bryce Jones, is still an extremely inconsistent shooter and is a defensive liability when paired with Stark (both slightly built and 6’0’’). F Gee McGhee (7.5 PPG, 5.2 RPG) has seen his scoring average dip each season at Murray State since his freshman season (12.1 PPG). McGhee is only shooting 28.6% from the field this season. McGhee leads the undersized Racers in rebounding and will have the tall task of keeping the bigger Rebels from crawling all over the boards on Thursday night. The Racers allow north of 38 rebounds per game to their opponents (272nd NCAA) and will have to hope they catch fire from deep (27 3PA/G, 13th NCAA) to keep the Rebels from pounding away in the paint.

Ole Miss Coach Andy Kennedy will look to 6’10” F Sebastian Saiz (14.9 PPG, 11.2 RPG, 56.8% FG) for a big game against undersized Murray State on Thursday night. 9th in the nation in rebounding and already with three double-doubles of 20+ points and 12+ rebounds, look for a monster night from Saiz to keep Murray State’s upset hopes at bay. In two of the Rebels three losses, Saiz was held to 4 and 8 points respectively. If Murray State throws multiple defenders at Ole Miss’s double-double machine, G Deandre Burnett (20.0 PPG) will make them pay, but will have to find his aim again. Leading the Rebels in scoring, Burnett (like Stark on Murray State) has flourished overall, after sitting out a year after transferring from Miami (FL). After a torrid pace, however, Burnett has gone cold in his last three games while shooting 9-of-34 from the field (2-of-14 3PT). Another transfer, G Cullen Neal (12.9 PPG, 45% 3PT) from New Mexico provides a steady scoring option while still getting his footing as a playmaker in the SEC (2.7 APG/2 TO). Neal has been a consistent threat from beyond the arc, though, and that could pay off against a team like Murray State that won’t be able to guard Ole Miss down low. Sophomore Terence Davis (12 PPG, 4.9 RPG) is a future potential star for the Rebels, having taken a big leap forward with substantial playing time. The 6’4” guard amassed 18 points and 12 rebounds in his first collegiate double-double in the loss to Virginia Tech on Sunday. Davis is an elite athlete and could cause big matchup problems in the open floor for Murray State. He’ll have a chance to get out and run in a game that fits his style, featuring two sub-par defenses (Murray State is 309th in the country), and a Racer team that takes a ton of threes – potential misses that lead to long rebounds and fast breaks.