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Memphis faces W. Kentucky in Boca Raton Bowl
By: Staff Writer - StatFox
Published: 12/19/2016  at  3:30:00 PM
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MEMPHIS TIGERS (8-4)
vs. WESTERN KENTUCKY HILLTOPPERS (10-3)

BOCA RATON BOWL - FAU Stadium – Boca Raton, FL
Kickoff: Tuesday, 7:00 p.m. ET
Line: Western Kentucky -5.0, Total: 79.0

Western Kentucky will be looking to end the season with an eighth straight victory by defeating Memphis in the Boca Raton Bowl on Tuesday.

The Tigers played their best football down the stretch this season, as Memphis won (and covered) in three of its final four regular season games. The Tigers’ most impressive win of the season also came in the last game of the year, as they beat Houston 48-44 as four-point home underdogs. Memphis’ offense is rolling heading into this bowl game, as the team has now scored at least 40 points in three of its past four games. Western Kentucky, meanwhile, is also scorching hot coming into this one. The Hilltoppers have won seven straight games, and they have covered in five of those contests. They are also explosive offensively, scoring at least 44 in each of their past nine games. The trends in this game strongly favor Western Kentucky as well. The Hilltoppers are an impressive 12-3 ATS after scoring 31 points or more in two straight games over the past two seasons. They are also 9-2 ATS versus teams with a completion percentage of 58.0% or better in that span. It’s worth mentioning that three of Western Kentucky’s final four games went Over the total and four of Memphis’ last six went Over as well.

Memphis is an explosive team, and the Tigers are going to need to be on their game on Tuesday. The winner of this game could very well score at least 50 points, and that means that QB Riley Ferguson (3,326 yards, 28 TD, 9 INT) will need to be ready to go. Ferguson was brilliant against Houston last game, throwing for 409 yards with four touchdowns and zero picks. He has already had a game with six touchdowns through the air this year (Sep. 24 vs. Bowling Green) and he just might need to turn a similar performance here. His favorite target in the passing game is WR Anthony Miller (84 rec, 1,283 yards, 11 TD), and Miller should also be in for a big day on Tuesday. He knows how to get himself open and has a knack for finding the endzone. On the ground, look for RB Doroland Dorceus (783 yards, 9 TD) to find a bunch of holes in this game. The Hilltoppers are lousy defensively, and Memphis knows that it can’t let Ferguson go out and throw every play. Dorceus will make things easier on him if he can run the ball hard and wear out the defense.

The Hilltoppers will be looking to make a statement with a win over Memphis on Tuesday, and QB Mike White (4,027 yards, 34 TD, 6 INT) is likely in for a huge performance. This Tigers defense was just shredded by Houston a week ago, and Western Kentucky has a much better passing game than the Cougars. Over the past three games, White has thrown for 10 touchdowns and only one interception. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him throw for 350 yards and at least four touchdowns on Tuesday. The guys that’ll be the recipients of those passes are WRs Taywan Taylor (89 rec, 1586 yards, 16 TD) and Nicholas Norris (73 rec, 1,253 yards, 13 TD). Norris just might be the most explosive player on the team, as he is a very good receiver and also has 12 rushes for 221 yards and a touchdown this season. He is dynamic in the open field and is surely going to do some damage on Tuesday. RB Anthony Wales (1,376 yards, 24 TD) should also thrive in this one. He is one of the best redzone runners in the nation and will definitely find the endzone at least once on Tuesday.


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