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#2 UCLA hosts Michigan Saturday night
By: Dave Schoenholt - StatFox
Published: 12/9/2016  at  9:57:00 AM
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MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (7-2)

at UCLA BRUINS (9-0)

Pauley Pavilion – Los Angeles, CA
Tip-off: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: N/A

#2 UCLA looks to avoid a letdown against Michigan in the Bruins’ first game after toppling Kentucky.

November 26, 1997. That was the last time the UCLA Bruins were ranked as high as they are today. A defeat, in Lexington, of then #1 Kentucky last Saturday will do that for a program. Just late last year, the faithful in Westwood had been calling for Bruins Coach, Steve Alford, to be canned. Those calls may once again arise if UCLA doesn’t capitalize on their early-season momentum and do something of substance in March. That said, the 97-92 win over Kentucky in Rupp Arena (UCLA +10.5), especially impressive due to the fact that it was everyone but celebrated freshman guard Lonzo Ball who drove the UCLA bus to victory, will earn the notice and respect of even the most critical doubters. The Bruins have coasted to cover their last six ATS and are 7-2 ATS on the season and are now 3-0 (3-0 ATS) against Power 7 foes since adding Kentucky to a list of victims that already included Nebraska and Texas A&M. Their opponent in the Wolverines hasn’t had a week to bask in the glow of a road win against the nation’s number 1 team. That said, this will be Michigan’s sixth game against Power 7 teams after recently dispatching Texas (53-50, UM -10) at home on Tuesday. The Wolverines are 3-2 (2-3 ATS) in those games which include impressive early-season neutral court wins over SMU and Marquette and subsequently losses at South Carolina and hosting Virginia Tech. Historically, this will be the 10th meeting of these two teams since 1998 with UCLA holding a 5-4 (5-4 ATS) edge. Michigan has won the last two times, in 2008 and 2011, both played on neutral courts. UCLA has teased us before - as recent as last season – boasting big wins over Kentucky (at Pauley Pavilion) and North Carolina. The Bruins haven’t shown the capability to sustain recent success, as last season’s mediocre 7-8 (4-11 ATS) record after a win shows. UCLA was also 2-5 (3-4 ATS) with 4+ days off last season. Michigan is 2-4 ATS after a win this year, and a similarly mediocre 10-12 ATS after a win last season.

The statistical markers for this team are impressive, especially on offense. If you can score 97 points in Rupp Arena against one of the best defensive teams in the country, then offensively the sky is the limit. The Bruins rank number two in the country in scoring offense (97.0 PPG) and tops in the country in numerous other offensive categories including assists-per-game, shooting percentage, and effective FG%. The Bruins close out games well, leading the country with 51.6 second half points per game. That said, they face an opponent in Michigan unlike any other they’ve played this season. UCLA wants to play at warp speed (79 possessions per-game, 10th NCAA); Michigan wants to play at a snail’s pace (64.9 possessions per-game, 347th NCAA), only faster than Virginia amongst Power 7 schools. Can UCLA be as effective in the half-court as they are running up and down? Thanks to five starters who average in double-figures and a sixth man (G Aaron Holiday) who could start on most teams in America (12.9 PPG, 4.1 APG), the issue for UCLA won’t be talent but focus (after six days off). Michigan doesn’t have the depth or athleticism to keep up with UCLA, unless UCLA lets them. The Bruins will be looking for a more steady performance from the aforementioned Lonzo Ball (14.6 PPG, 9.3 APG), the nation’s assist leader. As arguably a taller version of the second coming of Jason Kidd thus far in his early career, Ball has been the catalyst for UCLA’s meteoric rise, but did turn it over six times in Rupp Arena last Saturday and let go of five turnovers in their win over Texas A&M. Michigan doesn’t go for many steals and doesn’t boast Kentucky (or Texas A&M’s) athleticism, which should give Ball the opportunity for a bounce-back if he can be patient in the half-court. Fellow freshman T.J. Leaf (17.2 PPG, 9.4 RPG) did the honors of subduing Kentucky with a masterful 17-point, 13-rebound, five-assist outing last Saturday. Leaf’s surprising and immediate early-season production has his NBA draft stock rapidly rising. Lost in the luster of their two star freshmen is the steady improvement of all of the Bruins’ holdovers: G Isaac Hamilton (18.0 PPG) leads the team in scoring, C Thomas Welsh (11.1 PPG, 9.6 RPG) is a double-double machine, also blocking 2.0 shots a game, and G Bryce Alford (15.3 PPG) has transformed from a cocky gunner and ill-suited point guard to a selfless team player in giving up three shots a game to accommodate all the new offensive firepower. Look especially for Leaf and Welsh to come up big with second-chance opportunities on the glass against a poor-rebounding Michigan team.

Coming into a road environment where they’re clearly outmanned will not be an easy task for head coach John Beilein’s Wolverines, but Beilein is one of the best strategists in the country and the Wolverines’ style is unlike anything Lonzo Ball and Co. have played against this season. UCLA snuck by a slow-paced Texas A&M team that pounded the ball into the paint, but hasn’t seen a slow-paced team like Michigan with constant off-the-ball movement and screening. Michigan could very well catch UCLA off-guard. The Wolverines will have to shoot it better than they did against Texas on Tuesday (31.6% 3PT) or in the loss to South Carolina in their last true road game of the season to date (19.2% FG, 7.7% 3PT). UCLA may let people score based on the pace of their play, but they’ve been solid in holding their last five opponents under 42.0% FG. The Wolverines ride an exciting last-second win over Texas into Pauley Pavilion, led by the hero of that contest, emerging Sophomore F Moritz Wagner (10.4 PPG, 62.5% FG). Wagner scored the go ahead basket on one end and had the game-saving block in the final seconds to secure Michigan’s victory. Wagner has hit double-figures in each of his last four games (14.8 PPG). Frontcourt mate D.J Wilson (7.7 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 1.6 BPG) will be key in keeping UCLA quiet in the paint and off the boards. UCLA will run rampant in the paint without Wilson in the game. The Wolverines only got a combined 10 points from senior leaders Zak Irvin (13.6 PPG) and Derrick Walton Jr. (12.1 PPG) against Texas (4-for-17 FG combined), something that must turn around if Michigan is to compete on Saturday.


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