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#6 Wisconsin, #8 PSU fight for B1G title Saturday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 12/2/2016  at  7:53:00 PM
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PENN STATE NITTANY LIONS (10-2)
vs. WISCONSIN BADGERS (10-2)

Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, IN
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Wisconsin -2.0, Total: 46.5

The Big Ten Championship will be on the line when #6 Wisconsin faces #8 Penn State at Lucas Oil Stadium on Saturday.

The Nittany Lions surprised everybody by edging out both Ohio State and Michigan to represent the Big Ten East. The game that ultimately clinched it for them was a 24-21 victory as 17.5-point home underdogs against the Buckeyes on Oct. 22. Nobody gave Penn State a chance in that game, but the Nittany Lions won and have not looked back since. They have won-and-covered in every game since then, and they have scored at least 39 points in each of those five victories. Wisconsin, however, has been pretty impressive as well. The Badgers have won six straight games and they have covered in four of those games. Their only two losses this season were against Michigan and Ohio State, and Wisconsin had a real chance to win both of those games. This head-to-head series has leaned in favor of Penn State over the past few years. The Nittany Lions have won each of the past two games against the Badgers, and they also happened to cover in both of those wins. The trends tend to favor Wisconsin, though. The Badgers are 32-17 ATS when facing teams that average 6.25 yards per play or more since 1992. They’re also facing a Penn State team that is just 8-22 ATS in road games versus teams giving up 17 or fewer points per game since 1992. One injury worth noting is that Wisconsin QB Alex Hornibrook (Concussion) is questionable for this game. The Badgers have, however, been using a two-quarterback system. That means they won’t be throwing a cold backup into the mix.

The Penn State offense has been magnificent this season, and QB Trace McSorley (2,976 yards, 21 TD, 5 INT) has been a big reason for that. McSorley struggled to start the season, throwing for just five touchdowns and three picks through the first four games of the year. Penn State was just 2-2 in those games, but things changed significantly after that. Since a loss to Michigan in the team’s fourth game, the Nittany Lions have won eight straight and McSorley has been incredible. Over the past eight games, McSorley has thrown for 16 touchdowns and only two interceptions. He has also thrown for at least 300 yards in three of those games. He’ll need to find a way to be effective on Saturday, as the Badgers are not going to give up much to star RB Saquon Barkley (1,219 yards, 15 TD). Wisconsin is well rounded defensively, but its run defense is definitely its biggest strength. That means that Barkley will need to be effective around the goal line, but it’ll be McSorley that needs to really play a great game this weekend. The Badgers are prone to giving up some big plays in the passing game, so look for McSorley to go to WR Chris Godwin (47 rec, 762 yards, 9 TD) often on Saturday. Defensively, Penn State needs to focus on stopping the run. Wisconsin is not a team that can light opponents up through the air, so the Nittany Lions can really give themselves a great chance to win by forcing the Badgers to face a majority of third-and-long situations.

If the Badgers are going to win the Big Ten championship then their defense will likely be the reason. Wisconsin has been dominant on that side of the ball all season, and the team will need to be excellent once again on Saturday. The Nittany Lions have been explosive defensively, but the Badgers should have counters for most of their moves. They’ll look to get a ton of pressure on McSorley in this game, and should be able to find a way to take Saquon Barkley out of this one as well. Offensively, Wisconsin will be counting on RBs Corey Clement (1,140 yards, 13 TD), Dare Ogunbowale (458 yards, 3 TD) and Bradrick Shaw (395 yards, 5 TD) to lead this offense. Clement is the go-to guy for the Badgers, and it’ll likely take a 100-yard performance from him to win this game. He has reached that mark in four straight games, and he has also rushed for seven touchdowns in that span. Ogunbowale is a change of pace for Clement, and he’ll look to use his speed to break off big runs. Shaw, meanwhile, is another strong back, and he could see some touches in the redzone on Saturday. As for the passing game, QB Bart Houston (912 yards, 5 TD, 3 INT) will likely see some extended time on the field in this one. He might be forced to play the entire game if QB Alex Hornibrook (1,243 yards, 8 TD, 7 INT) can’t go as well. Houston has been the better of the two recently, and he threw for 123 yards with no interceptions in the win over Minnesota last game. He has now thrown for 232 yards with two touchdowns and no picks over the past three contests. Houston has a big arm and can help this Badgers team with his ability to make plays in the running game. It’s just going to come down to whether or not Wisconsin makes mistakes. They should win this game as long as they don’t throw any interceptions.


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