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Colts host Roethlisberger's Steelers on Thursday night
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 11/22/2016  at  3:09:00 PM
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PITTSBURGH STEELERS (5-5)
at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (5-5)

Lucas Oil Stadium – Indianapolis, IN
Kickoff: Thursday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line: Pittsburgh -7, Total: 49.5

Both the Steelers and Colts will be looking to get over the .500 mark when they meet in Indianapolis on Thursday night.

Thursday night’s Thanksgiving matchup between the Steelers and Colts will have some serious playoff implications, as the loser of this game will find itself in bad position. Falling to 5-6 means that one of these teams would likely have to go 4-1 over the next five weeks, at worst, to give itself a chance to steal a wild-card spot. That is no easy task. The Colts are the hotter of the two heading into Thursday. Pittsburgh won-and-covered in Cleveland last week, but the team had lost four straight games both SU and ATS before that victory. The Colts, meanwhile, have won-and-covered in two straight and three of their last four. The Steelers, however, have gotten the best of the Colts in recent years, as they are 2-0 both SU and ATS when facing Indianapolis over the past three seasons. Both of those meetings were in Pittsburgh, though. Indianapolis is actually the team with more going for it coming into this game, as the Colts are 11-1 ATS when playing on a Thursday since 1992 and 6-0 ATS in November over the past two seasons. QB Andrew Luck (Concussion) is, however, questionable for this game, and it’s actually more likely that he doesn’t play in this one. That would severely impact the outcome of this big time matchup.

QB Ben Roethlisberger (2,524 yards, 20 TD, 7 INT) did not do much against the Browns last week, but he didn’t necessarily need to either. RB Le’Veon Bell (579 yards, 2 TD) carried Pittsburgh in that game, rushing for 146 yards with a touchdown on 28 carries. He also added eight receptions for 55 yards in that one. This game should feature a much more balanced attack, as the Colts have holes everywhere defensively. Roethlisberger will surely attack this secondary, as Indianapolis is allowing more yards per game through the air than any other team in the league (285.0 yards per game). That means that WR Antonio Brown (77 rec, 907 yards, 7 TD) should be in for a huge game against this Colts team. Brown has seen 10 or more targets in each of the past four games, and it wouldn’t be shocking if he saw something like 15 in this game. Defensively, the status of Luck is going to be huge in this game. If he does not play then the Steelers will be able to sell out against the run. If he does then the plan will be to contain guys like Hilton and Moncrief.

If QB Andrew Luck (2,827 yards, 19 TD, 8 INT) is forced to miss this game then the Colts’ chances of winning will take a serious hit. Scott Tolzien would step in as Indianapolis’ starter and that is about as big of a downgrade as you can get from a starter to a backup. Tolzien is an accurate passer, but he is not capable of throwing the ball down the field. That is a big part of this Colts offense, so it’s likely that they’d have to scrap their entire plan for this one. If that’s the case then RB Frank Gore (642 yards, 4 TD) will be leaned on heavily in this game. Gore has rushed for 110 yards with two touchdowns over the past two games, so he has not really been churning out yards. He has just one 100-yard performance this season, and that came in an overtime victory over the Texans. It’d likely take another 100-yard game from Gore for the Colts to have a shot in this one without Luck. Defensively, Indianapolis just needs to avoid being beat deep too often in this game. The Colts are not going to be able to stop the Steelers completely, but they can do their best to avoid mistakes that lead to big plays.


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