Doak Campbell Stadium – Tallahassee, FL
Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. ET
Line: Florida State -6.5

#15 Florida State will be looking to prevent a fourth loss this season when the team hosts rival #13 Florida on Saturday.

The Gators clinched a spot in the SEC Championship with a 16-10 win as 13.5-point underdogs over LSU last week. The Tigers failed to punch it in on the Florida one-yard line with under a minute to go, and that victory gave the Gators their fourth-win-and-cover in the past five games. The Seminoles, meanwhile, are coming off of a 45-14 win as 23-point road favorites against Syracuse last week. Florida State has won five of its past six games and the team has covered in four of those victories. One thing that stands out for this Seminoles team is the fact that it has allowed less than 100 rushing yards in four of its past six contests. Some trends worth noting in this game would be that Florida is 48-30 ATS in road games after one or more consecutive covers since 1992, and Florida State is 6-0 ATS in home games after playing three straight conference games over the past two seasons. This series has favored the Seminoles over the past few years as well, as Florida State has won three straight games against Florida. The Seminoles covered in two of those games, but the Gators’ one cover did come in Tallahassee in 2014. QB Luke Del Rio (Shoulder) is questionable for Florida in this game, but that should not impact the outcome of this one too much. The Gators do not depend too much on quarterback play, so it doesn’t really matter who is under center.

QB Austin Appleby (815 yards, 6 TD, 2 INT) will likely be back under center for the Gators on Saturday, and he was solid against LSU last week. Appleby threw for 144 yards with one touchdown and no picks in the win, and Florida will have a chance to come away with a road victory if he stays mistake free in this one as well. Appleby will, however, need to be more accurate through the air. He completed just seven of his 17 pass attempts against the Tigers last week and the Gators need him to be better on Saturday. One thing that Florida should try to do is get the ball into the hands of WR Antonio Callaway (37 rec, 545 yards, 2 TD). Callaway is electric in the open field, but he had just two catches against LSU last week. The Gators would be wise to dial up more plays to get him the ball this weekend. RB Jordan Scarlett (725 yards, 6 TD) will also be crucial in this one, as it’ll be hard for the Gators to win if Scarlett isn’t running the ball effectively on Saturday. He was good against LSU, though, rushing for 108 yards on 22 carries. Defensively, shutting down the run will be Florida’s main priority. The Gators cannot let Dalvin Cook do whatever he pleases in this one, but that should hardly be the case. The team is allowing just 122.4 yards per game on the ground this season (20th in NCAAF) and held Leonard Fournette to just 40 yards on 12 carries last week.

Florida State might have three losses this season, but this is a very good football team. The Seminoles have enough offensive talent to beat anybody when they’re on, and that all starts with RB Dalvin Cook (1,467 yards, 17 TD). Cook was an animal against Syracuse last week, rushing for 225 yards and four touchdowns on 28 carries. It was his second four-touchdown game of the season, with the other one coming against Clemson. The Gators have a great rushing defense, though, so things won’t be as easy this week. He should, however, be able to find some holes in the game, and it’s hard to imagine him not reaching the 100-yard mark. With Florida keying in on Cook, QB Deondre Francois (2,990 yards, 17 TD, 5 INT) could be tasked with carrying this Seminoles offense. He has been good the past two weeks, throwing for five touchdowns and just one interception. If he can avoid making any big mistakes in this game then Florida State will at least have a shot to win this thing. Defensively, the Seminoles should be ready to make plays in the secondary. Florida is weak at the quarterback position, so there will be plays to be made at some point.