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Struggling Broncos host Texans Monday night
By: Sam Chase - StatFox
Published: 10/24/2016  at  10:43:00 AM
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HOUSTON TEXANS (4-2)
at DENVER BRONCOS (4-2)

Sports Authority Field at Mile High – Denver, CO
Kickoff: Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line: Denver -7.5, Total: 40.5

Denver can stop a two-game skid by shutting down ex-Bronco Brock Osweiler on Monday night.

With a 26-23 Sunday night win over rival Indianapolis last week (HOU -3), the Texans held onto first place in the AFC South, a division that seems very likely to yield only one playoff team at the season’s end. It was an incredibly unlikely win for Houston, which trailed 13-0 in the first half and 23-9 not long before the two-minute warning. After the Texans cut the lead to seven with 2:47 remaining, the Colts only managed to run 47 seconds off of the clock before punting the ball back. It only took Houston three plays to get back in the end zone on a 26-yard touchdown reception by TE C.J. Fiedorowicz (16 catches, 201 yards, 2 TDs). After getting a stop in overtime, Houston won on a field goal. They became the first team to successfully come back from 14 points down with under three minutes remaining since Tim Tebow’s 2011 Denver squad. The Texans are now 4-2 (3-2-1 ATS). Also 4-2 (4-2 ATS) are their opponents this week, the Denver Broncos. Denver looked like the best team in the league through four weeks but has now lost two straight after falling 21-13 to the Chargers last Thursday night (SD +3). The Broncos had Chargers fans on the edges of their seats, as they had a Hail Mary attempt against a team that’s blown several late-game leads already this season. Unfortunately for Denver, the final pass from QB Trevor Siemian (64.9 CMP%, 1,054 yards, 7 TDs, 3 INTs) fell far short. The Broncos had no one to blame but themselves, as they outgained the Chargers by 39 yards but committed an unacceptable 12 penalties for 103 yards. Over the last season, favorites coming off a road loss that are winning between 60 and 75 percent of their games (DEN) are 44-18 ATS. Houston coach Bill O’Brien is 10-1 Over in games played on grass fields.

Arguably the best sign for the Texans in their win last week was the performance by RB Lamar Miller (125 carries, 520 yards, TD; 17 catches, 111 yards, TD). After playing four games, Miller had more touches through four weeks without a touchdown than any player in modern NFL history. Things were arguably worse a week later, when he was no longer the holder of such a dubious record, but only because he had a measly nine touches against the Vikings. He broke out against the Colts, though, carrying the ball 24 times for 149 yards and a touchdown, and also catching the 10-yard TD pass that brought the Texans within a score late in the game. He’s now second in the league in carries and fifth in rushing yards. It’s a good thing that he’s shown himself capable of carrying such a workload, because QB Brock Osweiler (59 CMP%, 1,402 yards, 8 TDs, 8 INTs) and the passing game have not been good at all. While he had an absolute dud against Minnesota (56.1 passer rating), he had perhaps his best game of the season against Indy, completing 25-of-39 passes for 269 yards, two touchdowns and a pick. His clutch late-game throws were especially encouraging—the one to Fiedorowicz was gorgeous—but Denver’s defense is much more similar to Minnesota’s than it is to Indianapolis’, so Osweiler will have to take a major step forward if the Texans are to compete this week. Currently, he’s 27th in the league in completion percentage and 29th in yards per attempt (6.18). WR Will Fuller (20 catches, 327 yards, 2 TDs) leads all rookies in receiving, but didn’t play against the Colts despite being active. He’s expected to play against Denver on Monday. WR DeAndre Hopkins (31 catches, 354 yards, 3 TDs) was relatively quiet with 71 yards last week, but he saw season highs with nine catches and 15 targets, which was a good sign for a player who’s been criminally underused by Osweiler. The defense is seventh in the NFL with 315 yards allowed per game and 12th with 21.2 points allowed per game. It’s sixth in the league with 16 sacks, an effort spearheaded by DE Whitney Mercilus, who has 4.5. LB Benardrick McKinney and CB A.J. Bouye have both been tremendous surprises in looking like elite players at their positions.

Denver’s inability to establish an effective running game has become a serious problem for the team in recent weeks. In its first two games, the offense rushed for 141 yards per game. Since then, it’s averaging 77.25, a number that would rank fourth-worst in the league if it were the Broncos’ full-season number. Buoyed by those early-season performances, they’re actually 19th with 98.5 rushing yards per game. C.J. Anderson (94 carries, 330 yards, 3 TDs) is the feature back, although he’s only received 21 total carries (and seven receptions) the last two weeks after averaging 18.25 carries in his first four games. He’s 29th in the NFL with 3.5 yards per carry. Rookie Devontae Booker (34 carries, 161 yards) has gotten attention in recent weeks from fantasy owners fearful of him “stealing” Anderson’s production, but he received his most carries in Week 2 and is yet to get 10 carries in a game this season. The reality is that the Broncos are running the ball less, seemingly because they’ve lost faith in their ability to do so effectively. Siemian’s start against the Chargers was his first complete game since Week 3, a brilliant four-touchdown performance against the Bengals. He got hurt early the next week and was relieved by rookie Paxton Lynch, who finished the game and started in the Week 5 loss to Atlanta. In his return, Siemian completed 30 of a season-high 50 pass attempts for 230 yards and a touchdown. Theoretically (and in reality, for the most part), his play has been good enough for a team with a defense as good as the Broncos’; he’s 16th in the NFL in completion percentage and 15th with a 92.4 passer rating. He’s gotten most of his production by connecting with wideouts Demaryius Thomas (31 catches, 416 yards, 3 TDs) and Emmanuel Sanders (36 catches, 413 yards, 3 TDs). Thomas had a nightmare of a game against the Chargers with a key drop and a fumble, and he only caught five passes for 35 yards. He was visibly disappointed after the game, and a big performance by him against Houston would help everyone’s morale. The defense lives up to its billing, ranking fourth in the league with 295 yards allowed per game, eighth with 18 points allowed per game and fourth with 17 sacks. LB Von Miller is second in the league with 7.5 sacks, and CB Aqib Talib is second with eight passes defended. DE DeMarcus Ware broke his forearm in Week 2 and may be back soon, but probably not this week.


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