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#21 Auburn hosts #17 Arkansas Saturday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 10/18/2016  at  12:54:00 PM
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ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS (5-2)
at AUBURN TIGERS (4-2)

Jordan-Hare Stadium – Auburn, AL
Kickoff: Saturday, 6:00 p.m. ET
Line: Auburn -9.5, Total: 55.5

#21 Auburn will be looking for its fourth consecutive win when it hosts #17 Arkansas on Saturday.

The fact that Arkansas was a 10-point home underdog against #23 Ole Miss last week was unjustifiable. The Razorbacks were the better team in that one and ended up winning 34-30. They outgained the Rebels by 26 yards in the game and showed that they were the stronger team on both sides of the ball. Now Arkansas finds itself in a similar situation, as the team is a 9.5-point road underdog against a team that the Razorbacks surely feel they are better than. Auburn has won three straight games, but the only impressive victory for this Tigers team has been over LSU. That was an 18-13 victory that ultimately led to the firing of Les Miles. Auburn has, however, covered in all three of its victories in this streak and will be hoping to keep up its level of play moving forward. Arkansas has gotten the best of this head-to-head series in recent years, as the team has won three of the past five games played between these two. Last year’s game was an absolute shootout, as the Razorbacks defeated the Tigers 54-46 as seven-point home favorites. Auburn did, however, win 45-21 as a 17-point favorite the last time these teams met at Jordan-Hare Stadium. One trend that is definitely worth noting in this game is that the Razorbacks are an impressive 10-1 ATS versus teams that average eight or more passing yards per attempt over the past three seasons. They’re also up against an Auburn team that is a miserable 0-6 ATS in home games versus teams with a completion percentage of 62% or better over the past three seasons.

Arkansas has an explosive offense this season and the team’s success has surprisingly come from the passing game. QB Austin Allen (1,861 yards, 18 TD, 6 INT) has looked like an absolute stud this season, and he threw for 229 yards with three touchdowns and just one interception in last week’s gigantic victory over Ole Miss. The Rebels might let up a lot of points, but they do have some big, talented players on their defense and that makes Allen’s performance even more impressive. Look for Arkansas to stick to the passing game against an Auburn defense that knows how to stop the run. When Allen is going to the air, the guys he’ll likely be targeting are WR Keon Hatcher (21 rec, 354 yards, 5 TD) and TE Jeremy Sprinkle (19 rec, 199 yards, 4 TD). Hatcher is a playmaker all over the field for this Arkansas team and he’ll use his speed to shake free for a couple of big plays on Saturday. Sprinkle, meanwhile, is dealing with an injured left foot, but he is a serious problem for opposing teams in the red zone. He is a big body and he should come away with at least one score in this game. Defensively, it’s important that the Razorbacks are able to stop the run in this game. If they make the Tigers into a passing team then they’ll certainly escape with a win here.

Auburn has turned its season around with three straight victories and the team will be looking to make a statement with a home win over this solid Arkansas team on Saturday. Offensively, RB Kamryn Pettway (505 yards, 4 TD) is going to need to pace this Auburn team. Pettway was a monster against Mississippi State last game, rushing for 169 yards and three touchdowns on a whopping 39 carries. The Tigers are going to feed him until he pukes in this one, so he’ll need to continue to run with the same power he has all season. QB Sean White (1,187 yards, 6 TD, 2 INT), meanwhile, will need to remain turnover free in this game. He has thrown just two picks this season and that is one of the reasons this Auburn team has been winning games. The Tigers aren’t going to beat anybody through the air, but they know that they can’t beat themselves either. Defensively, Auburn has been solid against the pass this season, allowing just 199.7 YPG through the air (30th in NCAAF) and a total of six touchdowns as well. If they can keep Austin Allen in check then the Tigers should be able to win their fourth straight.


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