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#1 Alabama faces #9 Tennessee Saturday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 10/11/2016  at  7:48:00 AM
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ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (6-0)
at TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS (5-1)

Neyland Stadium – Knoxville, TN
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Alabama -13.0, Total: 58.5

#1 Alabama will be looking to stay undefeated with a tough road victory over gutsy #9 Tennessee.

The Crimson Tide have done nothing but impress this season, as they have covered the spread in four of their six victories. Last week, Alabama went and beat #22 Arkansas 49-30 as a 14.5-point favorite in Fayetteville. The Tide racked up 517 yards of total offense in that game and held Arkansas to just 73 rushing yards. If they can take the Tennessee ground game out of this one then they should blow out the Volunteers. Tennessee did, however, rush for 282 yards in last week’s 45-38 overtime loss against #6 Texas A&M. The Volunteers might have won that game if they didn’t dig themselves into a 14-point deficit twice in that game. If they start this one poorly, like they’ve done in every game this season, then Alabama will likely win by 28+ points. The Crimson Tide escaped last year’s meeting between these teams with a 19-14 victory as 14.5-point home favorites. It was the ninth straight win over Tennessee for ‘Bama, which last lost to the Volunteers on Oct. 21, 2006. One significant trend worth noting is that home teams (Tennessee) - after allowing 5.5 or more rushing yards per attempt in their most recent game – are 5-28 ATS over the past 10 seasons when playing an opponent that has outrushed its opponents by 100 or more yards in three straight games. As for injuries, RB Jalen Hurd (Concussion) is listed as questionable for Tennessee in this game and it’d be a big loss for the Volunteers if he sits this one out.

Alabama is the class of the SEC once again and a lot of that has to do with the team’s dominant defense. The Crimson Tide are allowing only 293 yards per game (12th in NCAA) and 15.8 PPG (11th in NCAA) on the season. That is particularly impressive when considering that Alabama has faced teams like USC, Ole Miss and Arkansas. The team will need yet another sound performance from the defense in this one, as Tennessee has a ton of weapons on offense and has scored 28 or more points in each of its past five games. Offensively, QB Jalen Hurts (1,242 yards, 9 TD, 2 INT) has been great for Alabama. The freshman does not make many mistakes, as he has been picked off only two times this season. In a big matchup against Arkansas last week, Hurts threw for 253 yards with two touchdowns. The moment is seemingly never too big for him and he should come through with a big performance on Saturday as well. WR Calvin Ridley (34 rec, 412 yards, 4 TD) is the target he’ll be looking for the most in this one. Ridley has three touchdowns over the past two games and his ability to run clean routes should result in him getting open often this weekend. As for this Alabama running game, RBs Bo Scarbrough (164 yards, 4 TD) and Damien Harris (478 yards, 1 TD) will do the heavy lifting. Harris has been the guy accumulating the most yards, but Scarbrough is the Tide’s man down in the red zone. Expect both to make a big difference in this one on Saturday.

Tennessee has had an issue starting off games this season, as they have needed to come back in the second half far too often. That can’t be the case in this one, as Alabama is far too talented and would never allow a lead to slip away against a conference opponent. QB Joshua Dobbs (1,433 yards, 14 TD, 8 INT) is going to be the most important player for the Volunteers in this one. He threw for only one touchdown with two picks against Texas A&M last week and he can’t afford to make that many mistakes in this game. Dobbs has thrown an interception in all of Tennessee’s games this season and it’d be huge if he can end that streak on Saturday. RB Alvin Kamara (292 yards, 2 TD) will be another important player in this one, as he’ll handle the workload in the running game if Hurd can’t go. Kamara was great against A&M, rushing for 127 yards and two touchdowns and also adding eight catches for 161 yards and a touchdown in the passing game. Defensively, containing Hurts is going to be the goal for Tennessee. He can beat teams in a variety of ways, but keeping him in the pocket is one way to slow this Alabama team.


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