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Cardinals can't afford to lose as they host Pirates
By: Brad Kallet - StatFox
Published: 9/30/2016  at  11:22:00 AM
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PITTSBURGH PIRATES (78-80)

at ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (83-76)

First pitch: Friday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Line: Pittsburgh +170, St. Louis -190, Total: 7.5

The Cardinals have three games remaining, and they’ll likely need to win all of them to reach the postseason. They take on the Pirates at Busch Stadium in their final series of the season.

The Cardinals (83-76) can’t afford to lose another game. In their final series of 2016, the division-rival Pirates (78-80), long eliminated, will attempt to spoil their postseason hopes.Coming into Friday’s opener, Mike Matheny’s club is a game behind the Giants for the second National League wild-card berth and two games behind the Mets for the first. RHP Carlos Martinez (15-9, 3.15 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) will get the ball in this must-win game, and he’ll be opposed by Pirates RHP Tyler Glasnow (0-1, 4.91 ERA, 1.64 WHIP in 18 1/3 IP). The Cardinals are coming off a disappointing four-game split with the Reds, while the Pirates just dropped a series to the NL-leading Cubs. Pittsburgh is 9-7 against the Cards this year, and has beaten St. Louis five of seven times at Busch Stadium. Clint Hurdle’s team has posted a respectable 40-38 road record this season. The Cardinals have played terribly at home, going just 35-43.

The Pirates had a disappointing campaign, missing the postseason for the first time since 2012. Though it would be a small consolation, they have a slim hope of finishing with a winning record. One of Pittsburgh’s bright spots this season was LF Starling Marte (.311, 9 HR, 46 RBI, 47 SB), but he’s started just once since Sept. 5 due to lower back tightness. RF Gregory Polanco (.262, 22 HR, 86 RBI, 16 SB), SS Jordy Mercer (.256, 11 HR, 59 RBI) and especially CF Andrew McCutchen (.255, 24 HR, 77 RBI) underachieved, though 3B Jung Ho Kang (.261, 20 HR, 59 RBI in 100 games) proved that his 2015 power was no fluke. Polanco (10-for-19 with 1 HR, 3 2B, 1 3B, 7 BB) has teed off on Martinez in his career, and McCutchen (4-for-27 with 8 SO) has homered off him. Glasnow has only made three career starts, but one of them was against the Cardinals, back in July. In that game, the rookie allowed four earned runs in 5 1/3 innings and took the loss.

The Cardinals can beat you with the long ball. They lead the NL in homers (220), are third in runs scored (758) and are second in slugging percentage (.441). C Yadier Molina (.303, 8 HR, 56 RBI) has had another terrific season, as has rookie SS Aledmys Diaz (.301, 17 HR, 65 RBI). RF Stephen Piscotty (.274, 22 HR, 83 RBI), 1B Matt Carpenter (.268, 20 HR, 63 RBI), CF Randal Grichuk (.241, 24 HR, 66 RBI), IF Jedd Gyorko (.238, 28 HR, 56 RBI) and LF Brandon Moss (.224, 27 HR, 65 RBI) all have at least 20 home runs. In his lone start against St. Louis, Glasnow gave up a homer to Grichuk. In three starts against the Pirates this season, Martinez is 1-2 with five earned runs allowed in 18 2/3 innings. For his career, Martinez is 3-4 against the Bucs with a 4.11 ERA.


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