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#11 Tennessee meets Georgia Saturday
By: Staff Writer - StatFox
Published: 9/28/2016  at  8:55:00 AM
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TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS (4-0)
at GEORGIA BULLDOGS (3-1)

Sanford Stadium – Athens, GA
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Tennessee -3.5, Total: 53

A deflated Georgia team welcomes undefeated #11 Tennessee to Athens.

After giving up a 70-yard punt return touchdown to go down 24-3 to Georgia last year, Tennessee looked all but finished with 3:24 left on the clock before halftime. But with two touchdowns within a minute of one another, the Vols cut the lead to seven at half. They took the lead before the end of the third quarter, and scored a final time with just under six minutes remaining to win 38-31 in Knoxville as two-point underdogs. They entered that game 2-3 while Georgia was 4-1. This year, the Vols are undefeated (2-2 ATS) and will enter Athens as favorites, while the Bulldogs (3-1, 1-3 ATS) are trying to shake off a 45-14 whooping at the hands of Ole Miss (MISS -6.5). Through four weeks, Tennessee has alternated between looking incredibly shaky and looking undeniably impressive from one game to the next. They needed a 10-point second-half comeback and a recovered end zone fumble to hold off FCS Appalachian State 20-13 in the season opener (TENN -21.5), then scored 31 straight points en route to taking down Virginia Tech 45-24 in front of the largest crowd in college football history. In Week 4, they struggled to get separation from a mediocre Ohio team in a 28-19 win (TENN -27.5), then scored 38 straight points to quickly erase a 21-point deficit and beat No. 19 Florida, 38-28 (TENN -4.5). Georgia opened the season with a 33-24 win over a good North Carolina team (UGA -3.5) and has played poorly since. They won 26-24 as 53-point favorites in their home opener against Nicholls and took advantage of five Missouri turnovers to squeeze past the Tigers 28-27 (UGA -7) before finally getting a much-deserved first loss against the Rebels. Since 1992, Tennessee is 18-5 ATS as road favorites of seven points or less. In the same timeframe, Georgia is 1-5 ATS as home underdogs of seven or less.

One theme you may have noticed in following Tennessee’s season is their propensity to get down early. It’s not often you see a 4-0 team having been outscored 34-10 in first quarters, and the Vols were also outscored in the second quarter of two of their games (and only beat Ohio 7-6 in the second). As the combination of those facts and their undefeated record implies, they’ve dominated in second halves, outscoring opponents 87-24 after halftime. It’s an interesting reversal from last season, when Tennessee’s yards per play dropped from 6.3 to 5.3 after the first quarter, and its completion percentage dropped eight percent. It’s a surprising shift for a team that returns nine offensive (and eight defensive) starters. If the slow starts continue, they’ll most likely sink the Vols against Texas A&M and Alabama, if not Georgia this week. Saturday was something of a breakthrough game for QB Joshua Dobbs (57.0 CMP%, 805 yards, 10 TDs, 5 INTs; 241 rushing yards, 4 TDs). The senior signal-caller and his teammates were booed as they entered the locker room at halftime, but he threw four touchdowns in the second half to be named SEC Offensive Player of the Week. His 319 passing yards and 80 yards rushing on the day were a best-case scenario for his dual-threat game. RB Jalen Hurd (365 yards, 2 TDs) pounded the rock 26 times for 95 yards and caught a touchdown. WR Jauan Jennings (9 catches, 142 yards, 2 TDs) had three catches for 111 yards and a touchdown, and fellow receiver Josh Malone (13 catches, 287 yards, 5 TDs) caught four balls for 91 yards and a score. The defense held the Gators to 102 yards after the half, and they were led by superstar DE Derek Barnett, who had two sacks, three QB pressures and a pass defended in the second half. Impact LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin missed the contest, but is expected to be back against Georgia.

Georgia RB Nick Chubb (422 yards, 3 TDs) sustained his infamous season-ending leg injury very early in the game against Tennessee last year. He’s played well in his return this year, and particularly encouraging is the fact that he’s shown durability with 83 carries on the young season, the ninth most in the country. But he’s once again facing health issues as he prepares to face the Volunteers this year. Chubb limped into the locker room at halftime against Ole Miss and did not return. He missed practice Monday and Tuesday, and it seems quite possible that he’ll miss Saturday’s game. RB Sony Michel (23 carries, 106 yards), who surpassed 1,100 yards in replacing Chubb last season, broke his forearm in the preseason but returned to play against Nicholls and has seen increasing action since. His 11 carries for 66 yards were a lone bright spot against Ole Miss. Freshman QB Jacob Eason (52.0 CMP%, 780 yards, 5 TDs, 3 INTs) has the worst game of his young career in Oxford, completing 16-of-36 passes for 137 yards and an interception, losing a fumble and taking three sacks. He was coming off a much better game against Missouri in which he completed 29-of-55 passes for 308 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. Such up-and-down play is wholly characteristic of true freshman QBs but, considering what Barnett did to Florida, Tennessee’s pass defense isn’t that much less frightening than Mississippi’s. Eason’s leading receivers have been Isaiah McKenzie (21 catches, 318 yards, 4 TDs) and Terry Godwin (12 catches, 163 yards). After allowing 510 yards to Ole Miss, Georgia fell to 60th in the country in total defense with 383 yards allowed per game. New head coach Kirby Smart said his team missed 15 tackles last week, a number that will obviously have to go down for Georgia to beat just about anyone, let alone a Tennessee team that features the slippery Dobbs and Hurd. If the unit is able to make big plays, it’s quite likely they’ll come from LB Lorenzo Carter or S Dominick Sanders.


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