StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

#7 Stanford faces #10 Washington Friday night
By: Staff Writer - StatFox
Published: 9/27/2016  at  4:31:00 PM
  Print This Article    

STANFORD CARDINAL (3-0)
at WASHINGTON HUSKIES (4-0)

Husky Stadium – Seattle, WA
Kickoff: Friday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: Washington -3, Total: 44

The college football world is watching #10 Washington host #7 Stanford this week to see if the Huskies are for real.

In what pundits pegged many months ago as the game of the year in the Pac-12, No. 7 Stanford (3-0, 3-0 ATS) and No. 10 Washington (4-0, 2-2 ATS) do indeed enter their Friday night face-off as undefeated, top-ten teams. They met last year on October 24th in Palo Alto, and Stanford came away with a 31-14 victory (STAN -14.5) to move to 6-1, while Washington dropped to 3-4. Cardinal RB Christian McCaffrey (436 receiving yards, 3 TDs; 119 receiving yards, TD) was his dominant self in that game, rushing for 109 yards and a touchdown and catching five passes for 112 yards and another touchdown. For the losers, RB Myles Gaskin (302 rushing yards, 2 TDs) put up 108 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries. Stanford went on to finish 12-2 with big wins in the Pac-12 Championship and the Rose Bowl, while Washington finished 7-6 with a nice win in the Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl. You can be excused, then, if you were befuddled over the offseason when Washington started garnering top-ten hype while Stanford became something of an afterthought—albeit an afterthought that most still had among their top 15 teams in the country. The Washington excitement was based on their widely-recognized potential, as freshmen (now sophomores) Gaskin and QB Jake Browning (70.5 CMP%, 904 yards, 14 TDs, 2 INTs) looked like stars in the making, and a strong defense brought almost everyone back this year, including reserves. Stanford, meanwhile, returned McCaffrey and most of its defense, but lost rock-steady QB Kevin Hogan and three two-year starters along the offensive line, plus was staring down a conference road slate that features UCLA (who they beat last week), Washington and Oregon. Like clockwork, the team that finished last season No. 3 in the country is back in pole position in the Pac-12. In the last ten seasons, home favorites who have gained more than 6.25 yards per play in four consecutive games and returned eight starters from the previous season, including the quarterback, are 37-17 against the spread. Games involving two teams averaging between 190 and 230 rushing yards per game where the total is between 42.5 and 49 are 28-8 UNDER in the past five seasons. Washington head coach Chris Pederson is 6-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points, and Stanford head coach David Shaw is 6-1 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.

While Kansas State and USC are not at the height of their powers as football programs, it was nonetheless impressive that Stanford vanquished major-conference opponents—one of which was an in-conference rival—with little difficulty in its first two games. Their 22-13 victory at UCLA (STAN -3) made a far bigger statement, however, even if the game was much closer than the score suggests. With two minutes to play and trailing 13-9, Burns led the Cardinal on a 10-play, 70-yard drive to take a 16-13 lead with 24 seconds left on an eight-yard fade to WR J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (3 catches, 29 yards, TD). Then, as UCLA QB Josh Rosen dropped back for a Hail Mary attempt soon after, LB Joey Alfieri stripped him of the ball and DE Solomon Thomas took the ball back for a touchdown with no time remaining. With the road win, the defense continued to cement its reputation as one of the stoutest in the country, as it ranks eighth nationally with 12 points allowed per game and 32nd with 338 yards allowed, despite the tough competition it’s encountered. LB Peter Kalambayi led the team with 4.5 sacks last year, and he’s off to a strong start in 2016 with 2.5 sacks and four tackles for a loss. Thomas and Alfieri are also stars along a front-seven that is as good as any in college football. Unfortunately for the Cardinal, the offense has emerged as something of a point of concern. Hogan’s replacement, Ryan Burns (61.4 CMP%, 395 yards, 3 TDs, 2 INTs), has mostly avoided making mistakes, but the backhanded nature of the “game manager” label is pretty fitting here: Burns’ 131.7 passing yards per game put him last in the Pac-12. He certainly showed that he can get it done when it counts with the game-winning drive in Los Angeles, but no non-McCaffrey player on the roster has made ten catches yet on the season. Part of that is in the nature of the offense—WR Michael Rector (6 catches, 79 yards, TD), last year’s leading receiver, had 34 catches on the season—but the worry remains that Stanford will be lost if another team solves McCaffrey. But for now, he just keeps on running: He leads the Pac-12 in rush yards despite only having played three games.

Unlike Stanford, Washington had three entire weeks to ease into their 2016 schedule. They did so without any trouble, beating Rutgers, Idaho and Portland State by an average margin of nearly 40 points. That diet of cupcake sure seemed to catch up to them last week, as a less highly-regarded Arizona team took them to overtime before Washington pulled away, 35-28 (ARIZ +17). (Others would point out that Washington hasn’t actually shown on the field that they’re all that much better than Arizona.) It was a back-and-forth affair, with neither team ever leading by more than a touchdown, and a wholly offensive one, as the teams combined for 987 yards of offense. Browning was solid, completing 14-of-21 passes for 160 yards, two touchdowns and a pick, and he threw the game-winning touchdown pass to WR Dante Pettis (11 catches, 153 yards, 3 TDs) in overtime. But it was the running game that led the way. Gaskins was the workhorse, toting the ball 24 times for 85 yards, but it was junior Lavon Coleman (27 carries, 261 yards, TD) who broke through with 181 yards on 11 carries, including a 55-yard touchdown run late in the 4th quarter. Early on, Gaskin’s yards per carry are down from 5.7 last season to 4.7 this year, despite the mostly easy competition, and he told the Seattle Times after the Portland State game that he had been “pressing.” Coleman isn’t the only back to spell his carries, either, as sophomore Jomon Dotson (23 carries, 118 yards) has also played well. Along with Pettis, WRs Chico McClatcher (12 catches, 269 yards, 4 TDs) and John Ross (17 catches, 195 yards, 5 TDs) are Browning’s favorite targets. The defense is buoyed by the secondary, a unit that is experienced despite starting only one senior (CB Kevin King). CB Sidney Jones and S Budda Baker were both 1st-Team All Pac-12 last season.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: