Paul Brown Stadium – Cincinnati, OH
Kickoff: Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Line: Cincinnati -7, Total: 44.5

Cincinnati needs a strong performance from all its units to win as favorites against Miami on Thursday.

With only four seconds left on the clock on Sunday, the Dolphins’ fate rested on the leg of a one Cody Parkey. Signed only one day before, Parkey lined up for a 46-yard field goal that would have given the Browns their first victory of the season and left the Dolphins 0-3. Fortunately for Miami, Parkey missed, the game went into overtime and RB Jay Ajayi (42 yards on the season) scampered into the endzone on an 11-yard touchdown run to give the Fins (1-2 ATS) a 30-24 win. Entering the game as the second-biggest favorites of the week (-10) and facing third-string Browns rookie QB Cody Kessler, Miami had a chance to get their first win in style in front of their home crowd after losing to tough opponents in Seattle and New England. It didn’t happen that way, as the Dolphins committed three turnovers and were outgained against what many considered to be the league’s weakest team. Things weren’t much better in Cincinnati, where the Bengals lost 29-17 (CIN -3.5) to the Broncos, dropping to 1-2 (0-2-1 ATS) in front of a home crowd that fully expects them to make the playoffs. Denver QB Trevor Siemian has erased any doubts about his competence as a starting NFL quarterback, but allowing him to complete 23-of-35 passes for 312 yards and four touchdowns still constitutes a very bad day for the Bengals defense. It was a similar situation on the other side of the ball, as allowing QB Andy Dalton (65.2 CMP%, 938 yards, 2 TDs, 2 INTs) to be sacked four times against a historically great Denver defense is understandable, but is not going to get the job done. Over the last five seasons, road teams coming off a game in which they averaged seven yards per passing attempt (Miami) are 33-11 against the spread in games where both teams are averaging 7.3 yards or more per passing attempt on the season. Last season, Miami QB Ryan Tannehill (64.6 CMP%, 892 yards, 5 TDs, 4 INTs) was 5-11 against the spread and Dalton was 10-2.

Tannehill’s fantasy owners have been reasonably happy with his performance thus far this season, but Dolphins fans know that there’s more to the story than his 297 passing yards per game. There were times on Sunday when he was the one who looked like the rookie making his first career start—three of them, in fact: He threw an interception on his first pass of the game, threw a nasty pick-six right before halftime, and was oblivious to the Browns pass rush that stripped him of the ball to set up Parkey’s would-be game-winner at the end of regulation. But Tannehill also made big plays and ended the day with a 93.9 quarterback rating despite his miscues. That’s what’s frustrating about Tannehill’s inconsistency: When he’s not making mistakes, he often looks like he could be a top-10 quarterback in the NFL. He’s been brilliant connecting with WR Jarvis Landry (24 catches, 314 yards, TD) and has also seen success in targeting receivers DeVante Parker (11 catches, 157 yards, TD) and Kenny Stills (8 catches, 131 yards, TD). The running backs, on the other hand, have been a major anchor on the offense’s success. When Arian Foster (16 carries, 47 yards) was named the starter at the beginning of the year, Ajayi responded so poorly that head coach Adam Gase left him home from the team’s road trip to the season opener at Seattle. His attitude may have improved but his play’s been disappointing, and Kenyan Drake (11 carries, 49 yards) hasn’t impressed anyone. Through three games, Tannehill leads the Dolphins with 54 rushing yards. Perhaps he’d be less prone to errors if he had a backfield to rely on. Foster will be out on Thursday night, so will TE Jordan Cameron (8 catches, 60 yards, TD), who suffered a concussion on Sunday. They also may have to turn to a third-string center, as Mike Pouncey is yet to play this season and his replacement, Anthony Steen, injured his ankle against the Browns. On defense, the blame for Kesler’s relative success lays at the feet of the secondary—DE Cameron Wake and DT Ndamukong Suh put excellent pressure on the quarterback.

Dalton finished the Denver game 21-of-31 for 206 yards and an interception, a performance that was pretty good considering the constant pressure he faced. He threw for over 300 yards in each of his first two games—an excellent 23-of-30 effort in a win against the Jets and a less efficient game in a loss against the Steelers in which he completed 31 of a career-high 54 passes. The running game was a huge concern heading into the Broncos game, as RB Jeremy Hill (37 carries, 150 yards, 3 TDs) had only managed 53 yards on 20 carries in two games. He appeared to get back on track against a poor Broncos run defense, racking up 97 yards and two touchdowns on 17 carries, but 50 of those yards came on a single run. The Dolphins are allowing a league-worst 147.3 rushing yards per game (partially because they have defended more runs than any other team in the league except the Bears—their 4.3 yards allowed per carry are 20th in the league), so Hill and the Bengals running game should continue to build confidence on Thursday. WR A.J. Green (22 catches, 295 yards, TD) is still among the league’s best wideouts, but has been relatively quiet since a dominant Week 1 (12 catches, 180 yards, TD). Departed receivers Mohamed Sanu and Marvin Jones are prospering in new situations, and replacements Brandon LaFell (9 catches, 164 yards) and rookie Tyler Boyd (11 catches, 120 yards) are yet to adequately fill their shoes. The offensive line’s poor pass-blocking performance against Denver wasn’t an isolated incident, as they allowed seven brutal sacks to the Jets in the opener. For a team that lost its quarterback to injury for the playoffs last year, it’s certainly a cause for concern. Polarizing (read: hated) linebacker Vontaze Burfict returns to the lineup this week from suspension to join a front-seven that’s been playing quite well. LBs Vincent Rey and Karlos Dansby have held things together in his absence, and linemen Carlos Dunlap and Geno Atkins have lived up to their disruptive reputations. The secondary needs to take a step forward for the defense to improve, though, especially CB Adam Jones. If he plays up to his ability, the unit could become dominant.