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Falcons, Saints battle on Monday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 9/26/2016  at  9:51:00 AM
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ATLANTA FALCONS (1-1)
at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (0-2)

Mercedes-Benz Superdome – New Orleans, LA
Kickoff: Monday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Line: New Orleans -3, Total: 54

Expect a shootout when Matt Ryan and Drew Brees face off in the Superdome this week.

The Falcons and Saints both lost as favorites at home to open the 2016 season, and both were underdogs as they took to the road for Week 2 games. The Falcons redeemed themselves, winning 35-28 at Oakland (OAK -4), while the Saints fell to a discouraging 0-2 with a second consecutive close loss, a 16-13 defeat against the Giants (NYG +3.5). For Atlanta, the win over Oakland (who beat New Orleans 35-34 in Week 1 as 3-point underdogs) was a chance for QB Matt Ryan (72.6 CMP%, 730 yards, 5 TDs, INT) to silence his doubters—for a week, at least. After a solid (but insufficient) performance against Tampa Bay in the opener, Ryan was one of the best quarterbacks in the league this week, completing 26-of-34 passes for 396 yards, three touchdowns and an interception. A calf injury knocked WR Julio Jones (9 catches, 172 yards, 2 TDs) out of the game towards its finish—he’s expected to play this week—but not before he grabbed five catches for 101 yards and a touchdown. The tight end combo of rookie Austin Hooper (4 catches, 98 yards) and Jacob Tamme (11 catches, 126 yards, TD) looked dangerous in combining for 159 yards and a score, and the running back duo of Devonta Freeman (113 yards) and Tevin Coleman (68 yards, TD) combined for 139 yards rushing, nearly 100 more than they put up in Week 1. After a 52-49 win over New York last season, most expected huge numbers from the Saints again this year in the same matchup. It was not to be, however, as their offense was held under 300 total yards and only produced a single touchdown. QB Drew Brees (66.3 CMP%, 686 yards, 5 TDs) was fine, completing 29-of-44 for 263 yards and a touchdown. Unfortunately for him, he needs to play better than “fine” in any game in which he’s hoping to lead this thin New Orleans roster to victory. In the past 10 seasons, home teams coming off of road games (New Orleans) playing in September are 45-29 against the spread when it’s between +3 and -3. In the past five seasons, teams have gone 80-40 OVER against divisional opponents when the total is 49.5 or higher. Drew Brees is 26-15 at home ATS in the past five seasons, but only 4-4 since the beginning of last season.

Between Jones’ six-foot-three frame and the combined 480 pounds of the aforementioned tight ends, any defense hoping to stop the Falcons passing attack going forward better have size and the physicality to use it. They’re not Ryan’s only targets, either, as he completed passes to nine different players against the Raiders, including a third tight end in Levine Toilolo (2 catches, 21 yards). WR Mohamed Sanu (8 catches, 99 yards, TD), who was acquired in the offseason to be the No. 2 receiver opposite Jones, had a quiet day with three catches for 19 yards. He was good in Week 1, though, and the fact that the offense had a good day without much production from him is more encouraging than his uneventful outing was discouraging. Freeman had 17 carries to Coleman’s 12, and only had three more carries than Coleman against Tampa, so the coaching staff’s offseason pronouncement that the team would have a two-back attack has so far come to fruition. In two games against the Saints last season, Freeman racked up 250 total yards and three touchdowns. Save for right guard Chris Chester—who allowed a sack and six run stops—the line was great, clearing lanes for Freeman and Coleman and giving Ryan time to pass the ball deep downfield. The defense, while by no means dominating, played well enough to win against a loaded Raiders offense. Led by strong outings from safeties Kemal Ishmael and Ricardo Allen, the secondary held receivers Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree to a combined 102 yards. The front-seven had less success in stopping the run, giving up 6.2 yards per carry to a Raiders rushing attack that gave more-or-less equal touches to three different running backs. The Saints are averaging 3.6 yards per attempt on the ground, so the Falcons will know they have a serious problem up front if they give up similar numbers this week.

Despite only putting up 13 points against the Giants, the Saints are still top-ten in the league in total offense, averaging 397.5 yards through their first two games. Brees’ five touchdown passes are second best in the league (tied with six others); he’s fourth with 686 passing yards and sixth with a passer rating of 109.9. WR Willie Snead (14 catches, 226 yards, 2 TDs) has been Brees’ favorite target so far, WR Brandin Cooks (13 catches, 211 yards, 2 TDs) set a franchise record with a 98-yard touchdown reception against the Raiders and rookie WR Michael Thomas (10 catches, 114 yards) has impressed his teammates in the first games of his career. On the other end of the spectrum is TE Coby Fleener (3 catches on 12 targets, 35 yards), who has been an early disappointment. Fleener’s performance has been especially dejecting, considering how well Brees has worked with past tight ends. He used the since-departed Benjamin Watson to great effect against the Falcons last season (10 catches, 127 yards, TD), so maybe this will be the game where Fleener gets on track. While the Saints are fourth in the NFL with 86 attempted passes, they’re next to last with 35 rushing attempts. They were 20th last season with 397—nearly 25 per game—so look for them to amp up their ground attack soon. RB Mark Ingram (21 carries, 88 yards) has been as good as you could expect a lead back to be without being allowed to get into a rhythm. The Saints defense was 31st in the league in total defense, allowing 413.8 yards per game, and they’re ranked exactly the same so far this season with 451.1 yards allowed per game. Their heavily-targeted secondary has only gotten weaker in these early weeks: CB Delvin Breaux broke his fibula in Week 1 and CB P.J. Williams left the Giants game with a concussion and is Questionable for this week’s game. The unit showed improvement from its first outing to its second, and further progress is necessary if New Orleans wants to slow down a confident Matt Ryan.


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