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Cowboys host Bears on Sunday night
By: Staff Writer - StatFox
Published: 9/24/2016  at  8:30:00 PM
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CHICAGO BEARS (0-2)
at DALLAS COWBOYS (2-0)

AT&T Stadium – Dallas, TX
Kickoff: Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET
Line: Dallas -7, Total: 44.5

The lowly Bears limp to Dallas for yet another primetime game.

Simply put, the outlook for the Chicago Bears is quite bad. They’re 0-2 (0-2 ATS), with their latest loss coming at home on Monday night to the Eagles by a score of 29-14 (CHI -3). They allowed rookie QB Carson Wentz’s offense to control the ball for 36 minutes, and they only scored one touchdown on offense despite outgaining Philadelphia by a few yards—but it goes much deeper than that. Injured linebacker Pernell McPhee chewed out QB Jay Cutler (60.9 CMP%, 373 yards, TD, 2 INTs) on the sideline after he threw an ugly interception, and Cutler later left the game with an injured thumb. He’s expected to miss two to three weeks. Several other players are expected to miss the Bears’ second consecutive nationally televised game, including (but not limited to) linebackers Danny Trevathan and Lamarr Houston and NT Eddie Goldman. Dallas enters this week’s matchup 1-1 (1-1 ATS) after two games against NFC East rivals, most recently having beaten the Redskins 27-24 on the road (DAL +3). Rookie QB Dak Prescott (62.7 CMP%, 519 yards) is still yet to throw a touchdown—or an interception—but looked sharp against the Skins in completing 22-of-30 passing attempts for 292 yards. Fellow first year Ezekiel Elliott (134 yards, 2 TDs) also put up bigger numbers than he did in Week 1 with 81 yards on the ground, but also fumbled twice and saw his playing time handed to Alfred Morris (42 yards, TD) in the game’s final minutes. Over the past ten seasons, teams that only won 25 to 40 percent of their games from the previous season are 66-34 ATS against conference opponents. In his career as a head coach, John Fox is 10-1 ATS on the road coming off of upset losses by 10 or more points. In the past five seasons, the UNDER is 180-120 for teams in conference games coming off of division games (Dallas) when the total is between 42.5 and 49.

Chicago’s injury trouble started before the season even began, when the team put McPhee on the PUP list after he received knee surgery, guaranteeing that he would miss at least the first six games of the season. McPhee was the Bears’ best defensive player last season, and appeared primed to take full leadership of the unit this year. His absence has been felt greatly, but the defense appears to be in a lot more trouble. Goldman played well as a rookie last season and against Houston in Week 1, and the missing presence of his 320-pound frame in the middle of the line will only make life easier for Elliott and Morris. He’s expected to miss a month. Houston, who led the team with eight sacks last year was the veteran of the linebacking unit, is out for the year with a torn ACL. Trevathan was one of the team’s biggest free agency signings from this offseason, and he’s out indefinitely after having thumb surgery. The other big signing was LB Jerrell Freeman, and he’s been fantastic with 22 tackles in his first two games as a Bear. But it’s hard to imagine him (let alone any of the less skilled players on this defense) making up for the aforementioned absences. QB Brian Hoyer has seen more action than any other ostensible backup quarterback over the past few seasons, and here he is again, this time stepping in for Cutler. He looked strong in his limited action on Monday night, completing 9-of-12 passes for 75 yards. But Bears fans are probably thinking more about his last start, an embarrassing 30-0 Texans loss in last season’s playoffs in which he threw four interceptions. Also not inspiring much confidence is Chicago’s running game, which has looked downright depressing thus far. The team has only rushed for 137 yards, with the majority of those coming from Jeremy Langford’s 3.0 yards per carry (85 yards, 2 TDs, fumble). Wideouts Alshon Jeffery (9 catches, 201 yards) and Eddie Royal (8 catches, 109 yards, TD) have both done well with the targets they’ve received, and Royal delivered one of Chicago’s few highlight moments against the Eagles with a 65-yard punt return touchdown.

After a series of impeccable performances in the preseason, Cowboys fans were cautiously optimistic with regards to Prescott—OK, maybe not cautiously. Considering the fact that he’s a rookie who was drafted with no intention of being played right away, he’s been quite good. His 83.1 passer rating is 21st in the league. Both he and those calling his plays have been quite conservative, as he’s the only QB to start both games this season who has thrown neither a touchdown nor an interception. He kept the game close throughout in a Week 1 loss to the Giants, and the Cowboys are 55 percent on third down conversions, second-best in the NFL. So while he’s not making the head-turning throws that became a staple of his preseason, he’s doing exactly what you want from a backup: playing steady, consistent football. The running game has also been good-not-great, but, unlike Prescott’s performance, that’s not considered a satisfactory result in Dallas. The team is 23rd in averaging 3.4 yards per carry, and that’s simply not what fans were expecting from a team with a running back that was the fourth overall pick in the draft, another running back who is good enough to start elsewhere and an offensive line that many consider to be the best in the league. Look for Morris to receive more carries this week, and an overall resurgence of the run game against a Bears front-seven that’s been decimated by injuries. WR Cole Beasley (13 catches, 140 yards) and TE Jason Witten (12 catches, 117 yards) lead the team in receiving, and Dez Bryant caught seven passes for 101 yards after an extremely quiet Week 1. The defense bent but did not break against Kirk Cousins and the Redskins, allowing 432 yards of offense but holding them to only 6 points in four trips to the red zone. The secondary is the best unit, and safety Barry Church made its biggest play by intercepting Cousins in the end zone in the fourth quarter. LB Sean Lee is a standout in a pretty thin front-seven.


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