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#22 Oregon faces Nebraska on Saturday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 9/13/2016  at  4:00:00 PM
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OREGON DUCKS (2-0)
at NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS (2-0)

Memorial Stadium – Lincoln, NE
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Nebraska -3.0, Total: 73.0

#22 Oregon will be looking to improve to 3-0 with a tough road win against Nebraska on Saturday.

The Ducks are off to a solid start this season, as they beat Cal Davis 53-28 in the season opener and followed it up with a 44-26 victory over Virginia. Oregon failed to cover the spread in each of those contests, but the team will be more than satisfied with putting up over 500 total yards in each of its first two games. Nebraska, meanwhile, has won-and-covered in each of its first two, as the Cornhuskers defeated Fresno State 43-10 in the first week of the season and followed it up with a 52-17 victory over Wyoming. This game should be an exciting one, as this is the first meeting between the two humongous programs. One significant trend when looking at this game is the fact that home teams after two straight wins by 21 or more points - against an opponent that just scored 42 points or more in two straight games – are 26-6 ATS since 1992. Nebraska fits that profile, but the team is facing an Oregon group that has an enticing situation of its own. Road teams after gaining 6.5 or more rushing yards per attempt in their previous game are 39-11 ATS when the line is +3 to -3. The Ducks also happen to be 22-5 ATS in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 63 since 1992.

The Ducks have failed to cover the spread in two straight, but the team is having no problems offensively. QB Dakota Prukop (602 yards, 6 TD, 0 INT) has been excellent since coming over to Oregon. He completed 70.0% of his passes against UC Davis and 67.7% against Virginia the following week. If he can continue to make wise decisions with the ball then it’s likely the Ducks will be able to pull out a victory on Saturday. If Prukop is overwhelmed playing in the biggest game of his college career then Nebraska will surely make him pay. With this being a big game, head coach Mark Helfrich could lean heavily on RB Royce Freeman (294 yards, 4 TD). Freeman rushed for 207 yards against Virginia last week and has an absurd 9.2 YPC on the young season. If he can get it going on the ground then he will make Prukop’s job a lot easier in this one. Defensively, the Ducks could use some big plays by DBs Khalil Oliver and Brenden Schooler. Both guys had interceptions against Virginia and could really provide a spark for Oregon if they are to take advantage of any poor throws by Tommy Armstrong Jr. this weekend.

QB Tommy Armstrong Jr. (484 yards, 4 TD, 1 INT) has been excellent this season, as he has a passer rating of 174.9 through two games this season. Armstrong Jr. is also capable of beating teams with his legs, as he has rushed for three touchdowns in two games. This is going to be a real test for the Nebraska quarterback, as the Ducks have a very opportunistic defense. If he throws any balls across the field then the Oregon corners have the speed to pick them off. He’ll also have to be satisfied with making the right play and not just be infatuated with coming up with big plays every drive. Through the air, both WRs Alonzo Moore (6 rec, 201 yards, 2 TD) and Jordan Westerkamp (5 rec, 111 yards, 2 TD) are capable of making plays. They’ll need to make sure they run clean routes in this one and they can’t give up on any plays either. Defensively, the Huskers will have their work cut out for them. They are going to be on the field often in this one and they can’t let themselves get too frustrated when Oregon puts up points.


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