StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

Bills host Jets on Thursday night
By: Staff Writer - StatFox
Published: 9/15/2016  at  10:30:00 AM
  Print This Article    

NEW YORK JETS (0-1)
at BUFFALO BILLS (0-1)

New Era Field – Orchard Park, NY
Kickoff: Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET
Line: Buffalo -3, Total: 42

With both the Jets and the Bills coming off of Week 1 losses, the AFC East rivals each look to get on the winning track.

Both the Jets and the Bills enter a Thursday night matchup fresh off Sunday losses that were disappointing, although perhaps not altogether discouraging for fanbases that are unsure what to expect of their teams this season. The Jets held leads at the end of the first and second quarters against the Bengals before going down 20-16 on a Jeremy Hill touchdown run at the end of the third. A Nick Folk field goal with 3:23 remaining put New York back on top, but former Jet Mike Nugent put his old team to bed with a game-winning FG with less than a minute on the clock. Newly-resigned QB Ryan Fitzpatrick turned in something of a lukewarm performance, completing 19-of-35 passes for 189 yards, 2 TD and a pick, which came with after Nugent’s winning kick. While the Bills’ defense was strong in a 13-7 loss at Baltimore, the offense looked downright anemic. QB Tyrod Taylor completed 15-of-22 passes for a mere 111 yards, while RB LeSean McCoy led the team in rushing with only 58 yards and a touchdown. Buffalo was outgained 308 yards to 160, and only managed 11 first downs—far worse than even their 18.6 per game average from last season, which was 28th in the league. Against the spread in his career, Taylor is 16-8 overall, 10-4 in home games, 13-4 as a favorite and 8-2 as a home favorite. Buffalo is 8-3 ATS against AFC East opponents in the last three seasons, while the Jets are 3-8 ATS in the same timeframe in games where the line is +3 to -3. The Bills are 7-3 ATS in their last ten games against the Jets. Bills head coach Rex Ryan is 14-2 OVER in his career coming off of losses of six points or less, and Fitzpatrick is 29-17 OVER as an underdog.

The Jets notched an impressive seven sacks against a very good Bengals offensive line, two more than any other team on Sunday (Seahawks and Texans). Second-year DL Leonard Williams led the attack with a dominant two-and-a-half-sack performance. Fellow defensive linemen Muhammad Wilkerson and Steve McClendon also had multiple sacks. McClendon’s performance was especially encouraging, as the former Steeler was a new acquisition this offseason and is known more for his run defense than his pass rushing—he only had one sack all of last season. The D-line will get even better on paper this week, as DE Sheldon Richardson, one of the best defensive players in the NFL, returns from suspension. But with the good comes the bad, and an obvious negative for the Jets on the defensive side of the ball was the play of CB Darrelle Revis. Charged with defending star Cincinnati wideout A.J. Green, Revis ceded 12 catches for 180 yards and a touchdown. While anyone can have a bad day against Green, Revis looked notably slower than he has even in his recent post-prime season. Things don’t look to be getting any easier for him this week, as he’ll have WR Sammy Watkins to deal with if Watkins is healthy. On offense, New York’s line played well, especially considering the immense talent among Cincinnati’s front seven. Bengals DT Geno Atkins got a sack off of a scramble by Fitzpatrick, but the Jets’ line otherwise gave up no sacks or hits, and only six hurries. They facilitated the running game, too, successfully getting to the second level to open up holes for RB Matt Forte in his first game as a Jet. Forte ran 22 times for 96 yards, and also caught five balls out of the backfield for 59 yards receiving. WR Quincy Enunwa was a revelation in the short passing game, grabbing seven catches for 54 yards and a touchdown. Big-name receivers Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall were relatively quiet, combining for five catches, 69 yards and a TD by Decker.

Taylor’s 2016 debut was a disappointment. He only had one game last season—his first as a starter—in which he threw for fewer than Sunday’s 111 yards, a 14-13 Week 5 win over Tennessee. He ran for 76 yards and a touchdown in that one, but only gained 11 yards on the ground in the 2016 opener at Baltimore. It’s almost discouraging for the Bills offense that they didn’t commit any turnovers, as that would have at least provided an easily explainable excuse for their impotence. No. 1 WR Sammy Watkins led the team in receiving with four catches for 43 yards, and there was concern after the game that he had broken his foot. He hadn’t, but there is nonetheless uncertainty about his status going forward. Whether he plays Thursday or not, the Bills will need bigger games from Taylor and McCoy if they want to get their first win of the season this week. The defense played well, holding Baltimore’s offense to 308 total yards, down from their average of 359 YPG last season. DE Jerry Hughes got two sacks in on Ravens QB Joe Flacco, and third-year LB Preston Brown led the team with eight tackles and also picked up a fumble recovery. The secondary was solid for the most part, but did allow a signature Joe Flacco deep ball—a 66-yard touchdown strike to Mike Wallace in the second quarter—that accounted for the difference on the scoreboard.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: