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Jets host Bengals in big Week 1 matchup
By: Staff Writer - StatFox
Published: 8/31/2016  at  12:08:00 PM
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CINCINNATI BENGALS (0-0)
at NEW YORK JETS (0-0)

Kickoff: Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET
Line: Cincinnati -2.0, Total: 42.0

Two teams that ended last season in ugly fashion are looking to start their 2016 playoff hunt with a big win.

2015 was the same old story for Cincinnati, losing on Wildcard Weekend for the fifth straight year, and the seventh time in Marvin Lewis’ tenure as head coach. The Bengals started the year 8-0, including impressive wins vs. Seattle and at Pittsburgh, and were 10-2 when QB Andy Dalton broke his thumb. Though backup QB AJ McCarron filled in admirably as a game-manager, the offense averaged seven fewer points per game after Dalton went down. A Week 15, overtime loss in Denver kept Cincy from earning a playoff bye, and an exhilarating and bizarre playoff matchup with Pittsburgh ended in a 18-16 loss: An interception, deep in Steelers’ territory with under two minutes remaining, seemed to seal the Bengals’ first playoff win since 1990, but a fumble and multiple penalties led to a miracle win for the Steelers. Offensive coordinator Hue Jackson is gone after Dalton’s career year, and the search continues for a complement to stud WR A.J. Green. The running game managed only 3.9 yards per carry (23rd in the NFL) behind a stout offensive line, but should improve this season as RB Jeremy Hill will surely either bounce-back from a tough year or see his role reduced. Defensively, Cincinnati has star power on the line, a veteran infusion at linebacker and promising young talent in the secondary. The 2015 Jets made it five straight years without a playoff berth, winning five straight games late in the year only to lose to a hapless Buffalo team in Week 17 to fall short of the postseason despite their ten-win record. After a string of mediocre defensive performances to close out the Rex Ryan Era, head coach Todd Bowles brought the Jets’ D back to the forefront. A potent defensive line, led by DLs Muhammad Wilkerson and Sheldon Richardson (suspended Week 1), needs to stay elite to make up for a declining secondary. Offensively, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick should continue to thrive in a spread offense, with two outstanding WRs in Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. Aging RB Matt Forte is a weapon in the running and passing games, as is No. 2 Bilal Powell. Since 2008, New York is 4-1 ATS & SU against Cincinnati, though their last meeting was that one Jets loss. As six-point home favorites in 2013, the Bengals blasted the Jets 49-9 as Andy Dalton threw for 325 yards and five TD. In the past two seasons, Cincinnati is 6-0 ATS & SU in September and 12-5 ATS (11-6 SU) in road games. Since 2014, the Jets are 3-8-2 ATS (5-8 SU) in games where the line is -3 to +3. Cincinnati will be without LB Vontaze Burfict (suspended) and Pro Bowl TE Tyler Eifert (ankle) is doubtful. As previously mentioned, starting DE Sheldon Richardson is suspended for the Jets this game.

Bengals QB Andy Dalton’s career year (3,250 yards, 25 TD, 7 INT in 13 games), in which he led the AFC in QB Rating, was shortened by a broken thumb. Cincy ranked 3rd in the NFL with 7.8 yards per pass attempt and new offensive coordinator Ken Zampese, previously Dalton’s positional coach, plans on running the same offense as departed OC Hue Jackson. WR A.J. Green (86 receptions, 1,297 yards, 10 TD) is the nucleus of the passing game, and while he can win contested balls and consistently get open downfield, Dalton often forces risky throws his way. Green has never had a high-caliber receiver running opposite him, and this year looks no different as perennially disappointing WR Brandon LaFell (37 receptions, 515 yards with New England) takes over the No. 2 role from departed WR Marvin Jones (65 receptions, 816 yards). TE Tyler Eifert (52 receptions, 615 yards, 13 TD) is a red-zone beast with potential for a larger role, but he may miss the first few weeks of the season after May ankle surgery. The Bengals would like to have a run-heavy offense powered by their beefy and effective offensive line. Unfortunately, RB Jeremy Hill’s feeble 3.6 yards per carry average (41st of 47 players with 100 or more carries) and ball-security issues (including a back-breaker in the playoffs) have made that idea difficult to stick with. Smaller RB Gio Bernard (1,202 yards from scrimmage) was a far more effective runner, albeit on more finesse, outside-the-tackles plays, and an asset as a receiver. Cincinnati’s defense allowed 17.4 points per game (2nd in the NFL). DE Carlos Dunlap (13.5 sacks) and DT Geno Atkins (11 sacks) are two of the game’s most dominant linemen, and veteran signing LB Karlos Dansby bolsters the front seven. The loss of S Reggie Nelson (8 INT) weakens the secondary, but Cincy believes S George Iloka is a rising star who can replace Nelson’s production.

The Jets’ 2016 season may come down to whether or not QB Ryan Fitzpatrick’s 2015 career year was a fluke. His 3,905-yards, 31-TD season was a result of offensive coordinator Chan Gailey’s spread passing game, which effectively hides Fitzpatrick’s arm-strength limitations while making great use of a pair of standout WRs, Brandon Marshall (109 receptions, 1,502 yards, 14 TD) and Eric Decker (80/1,027/12). Last season, no other Jet reached 400 receiving yards, and there is still very little depth at WR and TE. The RB tandem of Matt Forte and Bilal Powell are both skilled receivers out of the backfield, though they may not have much success running behind an aging and ineffective offensive line. After holding opponents to 3.6 yards per rush last year (3rd in the NFL), the Jets need former-Steeler DT Steve McLendon to fill the gigantic shoes of departed DT Damon “Snacks” Harrison. DE Sheldon Richardson is serving his one-game suspension for a traffic incident, leaving more responsibility for Pro Bowl DE Muhammad Wilkerson (12 sacks) and 2015’s 6th-overall pick DE Leonard Williams. Leading-tackler ILB Davis Harris is entering his tenth season anchoring the linebacking unit, and third-round draft pick OLB Jordan Jenkins is expected to contribute as one of three new starters alongside Harris. CB Darrelle Revis showed signs of slowing down late last season, and the rest of New York’s corners have struggled in coverage so far in their careers.


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