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#5 LSU, Wisconsin meet at Lambeau on Sep. 3
By: Staff Writer - StatFox
Published: 8/23/2016  at  11:21:00 AM
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LSU TIGERS (0-0)
vs. WISCONSIN BADGERS (0-0)

Lambeau Field – Green Bay, Wisconsin
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: LSU -10, Total: N/A

For the second time in three years, Wisconsin and #5 LSU kick off the season at an NFL stadium, playing a game with early postseason implications.

LSU began last season with seven straight wins and climbed to #4 in the AP poll before a three-game losing streak (at Alabama, Arkansas, at Ole Miss) derailed their season. A runaway 56-27 win over Texas Tech as seven-point favorites in the Texas Bowl gives the Bayou Bengals momentum as they return ten defensive starters and all of their offensive skill-position starters. RB Leonard Fournette disappeared during LSU’s losses, but still led the nation in rushing yards per game (163) by a wide margin. After an up-and-down season, QB Brandon Harris needs to make better use of his WR talent in 2016. LSU did well to hire highly-sought-after defensive mastermind Dave Aranda as their coordinator (formerly at Wisconsin), and has the talent and experience to be one of the nation’s stingiest defenses. Wisconsin’s 2015 season went according to script: They started the year ranked No. 20, and ended it at No. 21. During the regular season, they went 0-3 (SU & ATS) against the three winning teams they played (Alabama, Iowa and Northwestern), and 9-0 (5-4 ATS) against losing teams. As three-point underdogs, they beat USC 23-21 in the Holiday Bowl. RB Corey Clement’s return from an injury-plagued 2015 should kick-start last year’s sluggish offense. And though the defense lost four starters and its coordinator (to LSU, no less), there is still great talent in the LB and CB units. The only recent meeting between these two teams was in Houston to kickoff the 2014 season. LSU won 28-24 and covered as 3.5-point favorites, with WR Travin Dural (still with the Tigers) catching three passes for 151 yards and a touchdown. LSU is 12-5-2 ATS (19-0 SU) in the first two weeks of the season under Les Miles, while Wisconsin is 3-10 ATS (9-4 SU) in the first half of the last two seasons.

LSU’s offense ranked 44th nationally in scoring (32.8 PPG), running successfully (257 rushing YPG, 7th in the nation) and struggling in the passing game (180 passing YPG, 106th). RB Leonard Fournette accounted for 42% of his team’s yards from scrimmage, running the ball 300 times for 1,953 yards and 22 TD. As unstoppable as the running game was for most of the season, Fournette failed to reach 150 rushing yards and averaged fewer than five yards-per-carry three times—LSU’s three losses. A measly 31 yards on 19 carries at Alabama essentially knocked him out of Heisman contention, and Fournette needs to come up big when it matters most as a junior. FBs John David Moore and Bry’Kiethon Mouton are back, but LSU has two new starting offensive tackles. QB Brandon Harris completed 53.8% of his passes for 2,165 yards, 13 TD and six INT. A strong showing in the Texas Bowl after some tweaks to the passing scheme is cause for optimism. Top WRs Malachi Dupre (43 receptions, 698 yards, 6 TD) and Travin Dural (28/533/3) return, and both can be lethal downfield threats if Harris is on point. Ten starters return to a defense that was second-rate by LSU standards, allowing 24.3 points per game (41st in the nation). New defensive coordinator Dave Aranda helmed the nation’s best scoring defense at Wisconsin last season. LSU gave him a seven-figure salary to bring his 3-4 scheme to Baton Rouge. DEs Lewis Neal (8 sacks, 9.5 TFL) and Arden Key (5 sacks, 6.5 TFL) will be stand-up, edge-rushers at times, while DT Davon Godchaux (6 sacks, 9 TFL) can get pressure on the interior. LB Kendell Beckwith (50 solo tackles, 3.5 sacks, 10 TFL) leads a linebacking corps that may lack depth with leading-tackler LB Deion Jones gone. Four starters, including star S Jamal Adams (4 INT, 6 pass breakups, 5 TFL), return to a deep and experienced secondary that ranked 28th nationally in yards per pass attempt (6.4).

RB Corey Clement (1,068 yards from scrimmage and 11 TD as a backup in 2014) was expected to become the next in a growing line of prolific Wisconsin runners, but a groin injury limited him to four games As a result, UW’s rushing yards per attempt dropped from 6.9 in 2014 (2nd in the nation) to 3.8 (104th). Now a senior, Clement should cash in on that monster season in 2016. RBs Dare Ogunbowale (1,118 yards from scrimmage, 8 TD) and Taiwan Deal (503 rushing yards, 6 TD) gained valuable experience last year and are serviceable backup options. The offensive line, which started seven different combinations last season, lost only one starter, which should also improve the rushing attack. QBs Bart Houston (last year’s No. 2) and Alex Hornibrook (a redshirt-freshman) are competing for the starting gig and could both see time under center. Top WR Alex Erickson (1,089 yards from scrimmage) is gone, leaving WR Robert Wheelwright (416 receiving yards in 4 TD in 9 games), WR Jazz Peavy (20 receptions for 268 yards) and TE Tony Fumagalli (28 receptions, 313 yards) to pick up the slack. The Badgers defense ranked first in points allowed (13.7 PPG) and second in yards allowed (269 YPG) last season. They lost four starters and coordinator Dave Aranda (now at LSU). Leading sacker LB Joe Schobert (9.5 sacks) and leading interceptor S Tanner McEvoy (6 INT) will be tough to replace. ILB T.J. Edwards is back after leading the team in tackles as a redshirt-freshman, OLB Vince Beigel (8 sacks, 14 TFL) will be one of the nation’s best pass-rushers and OLB T.J. Watt (J.J.’s little brother) is now a starter. CBs Sojourn Shelton and Derrick Tindal will be solid, but production at safety could significantly drop off.


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