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#7 Stanford faces Kansas State on Sep. 2
By: Staff Writer - StatFox
Published: 8/20/2016  at  5:29:00 PM
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KANSAS STATE WILDCATS (0-0)
at STANFORD CARDINAL (0-0)

Kickoff: Friday, 9:00 p.m. ET
Line: Stanford -15, Total: N/A

Two national powers meet for the first time ever as K-State pays an opening weekend visit to reigning Rose Bowl Champions #7 Stanford.

Kansas State earned its sixth-straight bowl berth last season (losing 23-45 to Arkansas as an 11.5-point underdog in the Liberty Bowl), and finished 6-7 (3-6 in the Big 12). A September win against Louisiana Tech and a one-point win over West Virginia to close the regular season were the highlights of the year. A six-game losing streak to open conference play, including a 55-0 home loss to Oklahoma, was tough to swallow. Some of the blame for a lackluster season can be placed on injuries to K-State’s top two QBs and much of their secondary, which led to inconsistent offensive production (113th in the nation with 338 YPG) and embarrassments on D (121st in the nation allowing 286 passing YPG). The Wildcats should be better in all phases in 2016. Stanford, meanwhile, has won at least a share of the Pac-12 North title in four of David Shaw’s five seasons as head coach. Last year exceeded all expectations, as the Cardinal won 12 games, capped off by a 45-16 blowout of Iowa in the Rose Bowl, and finished the season ranked 3rd in the AP Poll. RB Christian McCaffrey might be the best returning player in college football, though Stanford needs to replace three starting offensive lineman and four-year starting QB Kevin Hogan. Five starters are gone from a solid defensive unit that might be softer up front. An opening week loss to Northwestern kept Stanford from making last season’s BCS Playoffs, so they should be ready to come in hot and get 2016 started strongly. This is the first ever meeting between these two teams. Under head coach David Shaw, Stanford is 13-2 ATS (15-0 SU) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points, including 8-0 ATS in such games since 2014.

Kansas State’s offenses ranked 58th nationally with 29.9 points per game, but were 103rd in first downs per game (18.5), 100th in yards per rushing attempt (3.9) and 90th in yards per pass attempt (6.6). QB Jesse Ertz started Week 1 under center, but tore his ACL on the first drive of the season. He’s the favorite to start in 2016, and has good mobility at 6’3”. Athletic backup QB Alex Dalton injured his knee in Week 2 and never played again. Dalton could play a couple of series per game when the Wildcats want to go run-option heavy. QB Joe Hubener struggled as a passer last year when pressed into action, throwing nine TD and 10 INT with a 47.6% completion percentage, and looks like the third-stringer this season. WRs Deante Burton (team-highs 510 receiving yards, 4 TD) and Dominique Heath (313 receiving yards) give Ertz experienced targets, while junior-college transfer WR Byron Pringle could be a star if his off-the-field life stays in order. Last year’s two leading rushers, RBs Charles Jones (692 rushing yards, 5 TD) and Justin Silmon (350 rushing yards, 2 TD) are back, though the offensive line graduated four starters. Nine different players made starts in a secondary that allowed 8.2 yards per pass attempt (111th in the nation). A shoulder injury limited safety Dante Barnett to one game. He’s the best player in the defensive backfield, having tallied 56 solo tackles, three INT and eight pass breakups in 2014. The defensive front returns five of seven starters and should be able to generate pressure. DE Jordan Willis had 9.5 sacks and 15.5 TFL last year, DT Will Geary contributed 3.5 sacks, LB Charmeachealle Moore finished strong with 5.5 TFL and three sacks in the last four games of 2015, and leading-tackler LB Elijah Lee will anchor the defense after tallying five of his own sacks last year.

RB Christian McCaffrey is the alpha and omega of Stanford’s offense. His ridiculous 2,664 yards from scrimmage accounted for 43% of the team’s total last year. He scored eight rushing TD, five receiving TD and twice on kick returns. Between the Pac-12 Championship Game and the Rose Bowl alone, McCaffrey amassed five TD and 589 yards from scrimmage. Sophomore RB Bryce Love ascends to the No. 2 role after averaging 7.8 yards per rush and 16.7 yards per reception in limited reps last season. The receiving group retains some talent in WR Michael Rector (559 receiving yards, 7 TD). Expects junior TE Dalton Schultz to break out now that TE Austin Hooper is in the NFL. QB Kevin Hogan’s graduation leaves big shoes to fill under center. QB Keller Chryst (son of 49ers offensive coordinator Geep Chryst) is the likely starter, though QB Ryan Burns is said to be in consideration, as well. Either player will be a game-manager, tasked with minimizing mistakes, keeping defenses honest and getting the ball into McCaffrey’s and Love’s hands. Leading-tackler LB Blake Martinez, leading-sacker DE Brennan Scarlett and First Team All-Pac-12 DL Aziz Shittu are gone from a defense that ranked 32nd nationally in points allowed (22.6). DL Solomon Thomas (10.5 TFL, 3.5 sacks) leads a depleted defensive front. The secondary will be stout, retaining four key contributors, and adding former starting SS Zach Hoffpauir, who missed last season while playing minor-league baseball.


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