StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

Pacers face struggling Raptors in Game 5 Tuesday
By: Zach Cohen - StatFox
Published: 4/26/2016  at  1:53:00 PM
  Print This Article    

INDIANA PACERS (47-39)

at TORONTO RAPTORS (58-28)

NBA Playoffs
Eastern Conference – Round 1
Tip-off: Tuesday, 6:05 p.m. ET
Line: Toronto -7.0, Total: 191.5

The Raptors will be looking to take a 3-2 series lead when they host the Pacers in Game 5 on Tuesday.

The Raptors had a chance to get themselves a 3-1 series lead in Game 4, but they really did not show up in that one. They appeared to be content with splitting victories in Indiana and now have a lot of pressure on them in Game 5. One thing that stands out when looking at Indiana’s 100-83 victory as a one-point home underdog in Game 4 is that the Pacers shot 47.1% from the field and held the Raptors to just 36.5% shooting. Toronto will need to shoot the ball a lot better moving forward or the team could be looking at yet another early postseason exit. A few trends heading into this game really seem to favor the Pacers. Indiana is 7-0 ATS in road games when playing with two days rest this season and also faces a Toronto team that is just 0-8 ATS after four or more consecutive UNDERS over the past two seasons. One trend does, however, favor the Raptors and that is the fact that the Pacers are just 7-22 ATS in road games after five straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 42% or less over the past three seasons. Both teams are relatively healthy coming into this one, so hopefully injuries will not factor into the outcome of this contest.

The Pacers earned a big victory in Game 4 and one guy that really showed up for them was PG George Hill (12.3 PPG in playoffs). Indiana is outmatched at the point guard position, but Hill actually came out on top in his matchup with Kyle Lowry on Saturday. Hill finished the game with 22 points on 9-for-11 shooting from the field and 2-for-4 shooting from three. If he can continue to play good defense and knock down shots when he’s open then the Pacers may be able to pull off this series upset. It’d be big if he can do it in Game 5 and help Indiana steal control of the series. SF Paul George (26.3 PPG, 1.8 SPG in playoffs) will, however, need to be better moving forward. His teammates bailed him out in Game 4, as he was just 6-for-16 from the floor and finished the game with 19 points. The Pacers are counting on him to be a lot better than that moving forward. Luckily for Indiana, George continues to play elite defense on the perimeter and he’ll be counted on to do it again in Game 5. One x-factor for Indiana in this game might just be C Ian Mahinmi (8.8 PPG, 5.5 RPG in playoffs). The big man came up huge in Game 4, finishing the game with 22 points, 10 rebounds, five assists, two steals and a block in 33 minutes of action. He was very active around the rim on both ends of the floor and will need to come with another solid two-way effort on Tuesday. If he can hold his own against Jonas Valanciunas then the Pacers will be in good shape moving forward.

The Raptors have not played to their potential this postseason and they desperately need their backcourt to wake up fast. PG Kyle Lowry (15.5 PPG, 7.3 APG, 1.3 SPG in playoffs) and SG DeMar DeRozan (13.3 PPG, 1.5 SPG in playoffs) have been awful to start the series and the Raptors can’t possibly do any damage in the playoffs without those two on their games. Lowry is shooting a miserable 32.2% from the field this series and DeRozan has been even worse at 29.6%. They both will need to take better shots moving forward or they’ll likely be losing this series. For Lowry, the perimeter shots are going to need to start falling. He’s attempting 6.8 threes per game during the postseason and he has hit just 18.5% of those shots. Those numbers are absolutely unacceptable. DeRozan, meanwhile, is not shooting the ball well but he is also capable of getting to the rim. He’ll need to make more of an effort to finish around the basket on Tuesday. C Jonas Valanciunas (15.0 PPG, 13.5 RPG, 1.3 BPG in playoffs) should really be more involved moving forward. He had 16 points on 6-for-7 shooting from the field on Saturday and that is not enough attempts for somebody who is shooting that well. With the Raptors’ guards struggling, the team needs to get the big man the ball more often. He has incredible touch around the rim and can help them regain control of this series on Tuesday.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: