YALE BULLDOGS (22-6)

vs. BAYLOR BEARS (22-11)

Dunkin’ Donuts Center – Providence, RI
Tip-off: Thursday, 2:45 p.m. ET
Line: Baylor -5.5

No. 5 Baylor will be on upset alert when it takes on a No. 12 Yale team that should have plenty of fans in attendance on Thursday.

After a 70-66 loss to No. 1 overall seed Kansas in the Big 12 Tournament semifinals on Friday (KU -7.0), the Baylor Bears (12-14-1 ATS) enter March Madness as a No. 5 seed and will travel over 1,800 miles to Providence, Rhode Island for Thursday’s game. Their lower-seeded opponents, the Ivy League champion Yale Bulldogs (11-7-1 ATS), need only to take a short bus ride to the game despite being a No. 12 seed. Since the Ivy League does not feature a postseason tournament, Yale punched its ticket to the Big Dance by winning the regular season conference title. It comes into Thursday's matchup hot, having won five straight (3-2 ATS) and 17 of its last 18 (7-4-1). The Bulldogs failed to take down a major-conference foe in limited opportunities this season, going 0-4 in early-season road matchups against SMU, Duke, Illinois and USC. While they kept it close in a couple of those contests, they were only 1-3 ATS in them. They're 14-0 SU in games they entered as favorites (10-3-1 ATS) and 0-5 in those in which they were underdogs (1-4). Yale is without senior captain Jack Montague (9.7 PPG, 3.0 APG), who was expelled from the university for alleged sexual misconduct. He's missed the team's last eight games, though, so it's now used to playing without him. Baylor, for its part, will take the floor having lost four of its last six (4-2 ATS) in a stretch that included games against Oklahoma and West Virginia and, unfortunately for the Bears, two games against Kansas. For the season, the Bears are 7-6 in games away from home (8-4-1 ATS). While they're 10-2 in non-conference games, they're only 1-6 ATS against teams from outside the Big 12. They'll be looking to bounce back this March after falling as a No. 3 seed last year in a devastating loss to No. 14 Georgia State. Both Baylor and Yale saw the total go OVER in exactly 55.6 percent of their games this season. The winner of this matchup will take on the winner of No. 3 Duke-No. 14 UNC-Wilmington.

Baylor finished with an 11-9 record in the loaded Big 12 thanks in large part to a rugged frontcourt that made a habit of pushing around the opposition. F Rico Gathers (11.4 PPG, 9.1 RPG) was third in the conference in rebounds per game, and surely was first in intimidation factor. Need proof of Gathers' toughness? An All-Big 12 First Team selection, the 6-foot-8, 275-pound senior intends to enter the NFL after this season. He's joined on the interior by sophomore F Jonathan Motley (11.0 PPG, 5.1 RPG) who shot 61.9% from the field to lead the Big 12. Behind those two, the Bears finished 15th in the nation with a +7.9 rebounding margin. Also in double-figure scoring for Baylor is sophomore G Al Freeman (11.5 PPG, 3.4 RPG), who can hit pretty consistently from deep at 38.9 percent. But Baylor's real star power comes from senior F Taurean Prince (15.5 PPG, 6.1 RPG, 1.3 SPG). Projected as a first-round pick in the upcoming NBA Draft, Prince went from winning last year's Big 12 Sixth Man of the Year award to being the unquestioned leader of this year's squad. He can score from all areas of the floor, and his propensity for throwing down big dunks on helpless defenders is likely already giving nightmares to whoever at Yale is tasked with guarding him. But he can also be streaky—he scored just nine points on 3-for-11 shooting against Kansas on Friday—and if he's cold on Thursday there will be a lot of scoring pressure on the big guys inside. For an offensive x-factor, look to senior G Lester Medford (9.1 PPG, 6.5 APG, 1.6 SPG), whose broad skill set lets him pick up of some of his teammates' slack if they're struggling with scoring or ball movement. The Bears aren't studs defensively, as they rank 113th nationally with 69.3 points allowed per game and an ugly 232nd in field goal percentage defense (44.4 percent).

While no Ivy League team won a tournament game from 1999 to 2009, Cornell's two wins in 2010 and Harvard's first-round victories in 2013 and 2014 have established the prestigious academic association as a low major conference to fear come tournament time. It will be Yale's strength against Baylor's when the Yalies look to continue the Ivy League's momentum on Thursday, as the Bulldogs rank second in the nation (behind only Michigan State) with a +11.1 rebounding margin. They're particularly effective on the offensive boards, pulling down 13.37 offensive rebounds per game (15th in NCAA). Fittingly, the big names for the Bulldogs are in the frontcourt. Senior F Justin Sears (15.8 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 1.8 BPG) is now the two-time Ivy League Player of the Year, and he represents a reliable crunch-time scoring option for Yale. He shot 51.9 percent from the field despite receiving heavy attention from opposing defenses, so it will be interesting to see if he's similarly efficient against Baylor big men that are stronger than their Ivy League counterparts. Joining Sears on the All-Ivy League First Team is fellow senior F Brandon Sherrod (12.1 PPG, 7.1 RPG). After sitting out last season to sing in Yale's world-class a cappella group (seriously), Sherrod didn't miss a step in his return and actually shot even better than Sears (56.1 percent, third in Ivy League). It should go without saying that Gathers and Motley versus Sears and Sherrod is the tag-team matchup to watch in this one, and potentially the best frontcourt clash we'll see all tournament. That said, as with Baylor's Medford, Yale's offensive success may come down to a guard. Sophomore G Makai Mason (15.8 PPG, 3.7 APG) was the Bulldogs' third All-Ivy First Team member, and whether or not he's ready for the bright lights of March may determine whether or not Yale can pull off the upset. The other question is whether Yale's defense can live up to its vaunted reputation. The Bulldogs allowed just 63.1 points per game (13th in NCAA) and just may have the potential to shut down not only Baylor, but subsequent opponents as well.