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No. 17 Duke tries to sweep No. 8 UNC Saturday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 3/5/2016  at  2:35:00 AM
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NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS (24-6, 13-4 ACC)

at DUKE BLUE DEVILS (22-8, 11-6 ACC)

Cameron Indoor Stadium - Durham, NC
Tip-off: Saturday, 6:30 p.m. ET
Line: Even

No. 17 Duke looks for a season sweep of No. 8 North Carolina when the rivals collide on Saturday in Durham.

The Tar Heels have been losing wager this season at 11-18-1 ATS overall (38%), and are coming off a rough February, where they were only 5-4 SU and 3-6 ATS. One of those defeats came on Feb. 17 as a 7.5-point home favorite versus the Blue Devils, who prevailed 74-73 by holding Carolina to just 27 points in the second half. But since that game, Duke is just 2-2 SU (1-2-1 ATS) with losses at Louisville and Pittsburgh, and an unimpressive 79-71 home win over 16-point underdog Wake Forest on Tuesday. Although the Blue Devils are 8-2 SU in the past 10 meetings with four straight wins over the Tar Heels, the teams are an even 4-4 ATS in the past eight matchups. Bettors can point to negative trends on either side, as UNC is 1-5 ATS in its past six road games and 1-5 SU in the past six visits to Cameron Indoor Stadium. But Duke is only 2-5 ATS in its past seven home games, and is only 1-4 ATS in the past five home meetings in this rivalry.

Which team will come out on top in this matchup of in-state foes? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts Best Bets throughout the season. The experts continue to flourish with a strong 60% ATS record (88-58-4) in the past six weeks, led by StatFox Dave at 66% ATS (19-10-1) and StatFox Zach going 59% ATS (17-12-1) over this timeframe. StatFox Brian has been on fire for nearly three months with a stellar 63% ATS record (34-20-1) in the past 11 weeks. StatFox Gary is also sizzling, going 66% ATS (29-15-1) over the past nine weeks. StatFox Scott is heating up too, evidenced by a 60% ATS (12-8) record in Best Bets over the past four weeks.

North Carolina's offense is difficult to contain with 83.1 PPG (11th in nation) on 48% FG (24th in D-I), but it shoots a woeful 32% threes (291st in nation). The Heels are terrific at handling the basketball with 18.4 APG (5th D-I) and only 10.9 TOPG (29th in nation) for a 1.69 assist-to-turnover ratio (3rd in D-I). This team is always aggressive on the glass with a +7.7 rebounding margin (19th in nation) and 13.9 offensive RPG (13th in D-I), but this defense isn’t very tough, as it allows 70.5 PPG (142nd in nation) on 41% FG (76th in D-I) and a dreadful 36% threes (271st in nation). Senior F Brice Johnson leads the team with 16.8 PPG (8th in ACC) and leads the entire conference in shooting (62% FG), rebounds (10.4 APG) and double-doubles (18). Johnson had a monster game versus Duke last month with 29 points (13-of-17 FG) and 19 rebounds, which included 18 points and 11 boards in the first half. With the Blue Devils still lacking a quality big man, Johnson should be able to dominate again on Saturday. Senior PG Marcus Paige (12.1 PPG, 3.7 APG, 1.2 SPG) hopes his final game in this rivalry goes much better than last month when he scored just seven points on 2-of-10 FG, including 0-for-6 threes. He hasn't been great since that game either with only 9.0 PPG on 12-of-40 FG (30%) in his past four contests. Paige has done a nice job handling the basketball though, with 12 assists and only two turnovers during the past two contests. The Heels have three other main scorers in G Joel Berry II (12.3 PPG, 3.8 APG, 3.3 RPG, 1.5 SPG), swingman Justin Jackson (12.3 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 3.2 APG) and F Kennedy Meeks (9.9 PPG, 5.9 RPG, 1.3 BPG). Berry is the best long-range shooter on the team at 38% threes, and has strung together four straight double-figure scoring games (13.8 PPG). However, this streak followed a horrendous 2-of-12 shooting night versus Duke. Jackson has netted at least 10 points in seven straight games (14.4 PPG), which includes 13 points and eight rebounds in the loss to the Blue Devils. Meeks is making 57% FG this season, and scored 10 points in just 13 minutes in Monday's win over Syracuse. He also chipped in six points and eight rebounds in the Feb. 17 meeting.

Duke is always known for its high-octane offense, and this season is no exception as the group is averaging a robust 81.5 PPG (17th in nation) on 47% FG (58th in D-I) and 39% threes (20th in nation). This is a decent foul-shooting team (73% FT, 67th in D-I) that rarely turns the ball over (10.2 TOPG, 12th-fewest in nation), but has a weak +1.2 RPG margin (152nd in D-I) due largely to the absence of top rebounder Amile Jefferson (11.4 PPG, 10.3 RPG), who hasn't played since Dec. 5 due to a broken foot. This offense needs to be super efficient, because its defense is not strong with allowing 71.0 PPG (154th in nation) on 44% FG (227th in D-I) and 34% threes (163rd in nation). In addition to Jefferson, four other Duke players average at least 11 points per game, led by G Grayson Allen (21.2 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.3 SPG) and F Brandon Ingram (16.9 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 1.4 BPG, 1.1 SPG). The sophomore Allen has scored at least 15 points in 19 straight games, and pumped in 30 points on Tuesday on 7-of-16 FG and 14-of-19 FT. He collected 23 points (7-of-18 FG, 8-of-10 FT), seven rebounds and two steals in last month's win in Chapel Hill. The 6-foot-9 freshman Ingram is also on fire, recording 13+ points in 22 of his past 23 games. This timespan includes a double-double of 20 points and 10 rebounds in the Feb. 17 win over North Carolina. The other two healthy double-digit scorers on this team are freshman F/G Luke Kennard (11.5 PPG, 3.2 RPG) and junior G Matt Jones (11.2 PPG, 2.6 RPG, 2.4 APG, 1.0 SPG). Kennard can hurt opponents from anywhere on the court, and loves getting to the foul line where he is nearly automatic at 89% FT (80-of-90). He scored 15 points versus the Tar Heels two weeks ago, but was held without a point (0-for-4 FG) in Tuesday's win over Wake Forest. Jones has played well in three games back from injury with 10.7 PPG on 10-of-19 FG and 8-of-14 threes, and hopes to log a lot more than his nine minutes at UNC last month when he had zero points on 0-for-3 shooting before exiting with a badly sprained ankle.


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