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No. 1 Kansas seeks payback Saturday vs. No. 21 ISU
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 3/4/2016  at  1:21:00 PM
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IOWA STATE CYCLONES (21-9, 10-7 Big 12)

at KANSAS JAYHAWKS (26-4, 14-3 Big 12)

Allen Fieldhouse - Lawrence, KS
Tip-off: Saturday, 3:00 p.m. ET
Line: Kansas -8.5

No. 1 Kansas aims for an 11th straight win on Saturday while trying to avenge an earlier loss to No. 21 Iowa State.

The Cyclones (13-13-1 ATS overall) enter this contest with two straight home wins over Kansas State and Oklahoma State, but they have allowed a whopping 94.0 PPG during a current three-game road losing skid at Texas Tech, Baylor and West Virginia. The Jayhawks (18-9 ATS overall) are 9-1 ATS during their 10-game win streak, which includes an 86-56 romp at Texas on Monday. That victory clinched their 12th straight Big 12 regular-season title, which matches UCLA's record run from 1967 to 1979. But Iowa State was the last team to hand Kansas a defeat, prevailing 85-72 on Jan. 25 in a game where both schools made at least 50% FG. That was ISU's fourth win in the past five games in this series (SU and ATS), but the school is just 2-11 in its past 13 trips to Allen Fieldhouse. The Cyclones are happy the new month is here, based on their perfect 5-0 record (4-0-1 ATS) versus Big 12 teams last March, which included a 70-66 conference championship win over KU. But the Jayhawks are 12-4 ATS following an ATS win this season, and have yet to lose at home (13-0 SU, 8-5 ATS), where they are outscoring teams by 19.5 PPG.

Can Kansas win comfortably on Saturday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts Best Bets throughout the season. The experts continue to flourish with a strong 60% ATS record (88-58-4) in the past six weeks, led by StatFox Dave at 66% ATS (19-10-1) and StatFox Zach going 59% ATS (17-12-1) over this timeframe. StatFox Brian has been on fire for nearly three months with a stellar 63% ATS record (34-20-1) in the past 11 weeks. StatFox Gary is also sizzling, going 66% ATS (29-15-1) over the past nine weeks. StatFox Scott is heating up too, evidenced by a 60% ATS (12-8) record in Best Bets over the past four weeks.

Iowa State is an explosive offensive squad with 82.2 PPG (14th in nation) on a blistering 50% FG (2nd in D-I) and 38% threes (41st in nation). This is an average foul-shooting team at 70% FT (156th in D-I) that rarely gets to the line with a mere 475 free-throw attempts (337th in nation). However, the school has a strong 1.47 Ast/TO ratio (23rd in D-I) because it usually makes the extra pass (16.8 APG, 20th in nation) and rarely turns the ball over (11.4 TOPG, 57th in D-I). Iowa State does not have a very tough defense, allowing 74.5 PPG (243rd in nation) on 43.3% FG (171st in D-I) and 33.9% threes (145th in nation), but it stays out of trouble with the fewest amount of personal fouls in D-I (15.4 per game). Two upperclassmen carry this program, senior F Georges Niang (19.3 PPG, 2nd in Big 12) and junior PG Monte Morris (14.3 PPG), whose stellar 4.1 Ast/TO ratio ranks fifth in the nation, while his 7.2 APG rank seventh in the land. The burly 6-foot-8 Niang rarely takes a bad shot, as evidenced by his conference-leading 54% FG, plus 38% threes and 81% FT (6th in Big 12) this season. He also grabs 6.2 RPG, dishes out 3.2 APG, and has a current streak of 39 straight double-figure scoring games dating to last season. During his 11 straight contests of 14+ points, Niang recorded 19 points (8-of-17 FG) and six rebounds in the Jan. 25 win over Kansas. Morris also stepped up huge that game with 21 points, nine assists and four rebounds, but has gone cold in his past four contests with only 7.5 PPG on 10-of-27 shooting (37%). Senior F/C Jameel McKay (11.5 PPG, 8.9 RPG) has six double-doubles this season and has tallied 20 points and 27 rebounds (8 offensive) during his team's two-game win streak. Junior G Matt Thomas (10.7 PPG, 4.5 RPG) is the school's best long-range shooter, as he is making 43% of his threes this season. Thomas has averaged 14.0 PPG (15-of-33 threes) in his past four contests, including a 20-point effort (4-of-5 FG) versus Kansas State on Saturday. Thomas had a well-rounded performance versus Kansas on Jan. 25 with 13 points (3-of-6 threes), six rebounds and four steals. Senior F Abdel Nader (13.5 PPG, 5.1 RPG) has been heating up with 19+ points in four of his past five games (19.2 PPG), and also played well in the win over the Jayhawks with 17 points (6-of-9 FG) and four steals, one shy of his career high.

Kansas also knows how to put up points, generating 81.7 PPG (16th in nation) on 49% FG (8th in D-I) and 43% threes (2nd in nation) this season. The Jayhawks are very efficient with 15.9 APG (39th in D-I) and only 12.5 TOPG, which equals a strong 1.3 Ast/TO ratio (58th in D-I). The defense allows a pedestrian 67.5 PPG (73rd in nation), but limits opponents to 39% FG (19th in D-I) and 33% threes. Kansas has four main scorers it relies on with F Perry Ellis (16.3 PPG, 6.0 RPG), G Wayne Selden Jr. (13.3 PPG, 3.4 RPG, 2.5 APG), G Frank Mason III (13.6 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 4.6 APG, 1.4 SPG) and G Devonte' Graham (11.0 PPG, 3.6 APG, 1.3 SPG). After a subpar eight points versus Texas Tech last Saturday, Ellis responded with 20 points on 9-of-11 FG with four rebounds and four assists on Monday versus Texas. He also produced 23 points (10-of-18 FG) and five rebounds in the loss at Iowa State in late January. Selden wasn't as much of a factor in that defeat in Ames, scoring only 11 points on 1-of-6 threes. After lighting up Kentucky for 33 points on Jan. 30, Selden had a bitter cold February with only 8.3 PPG on 36% FG, 24% threes (10-of-42) and 46% FT (11-of-24) in nine games. The junior Mason has scored at least 14 points in each of the past seven contests, where he's averaging 15.3 PPG. Mason also pumped in 16 points, six rebounds and three assists at ISU in the last meeting, but he also committed six turnovers, which are one shy of his career-high seven miscues at West Virginia on Jan. 12. Graham has been outstanding in running the offense with a 2.4 Assist/Turnover ratio this season (5th in Big 12), but had only seven points, four assists and three turnovers in recent loss in Ames.


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