StatFox.com - Sports Handicapping Community

The Leader In Sports Handicapping

No. 6 Maryland hosts Michigan Sunday
By: Brian Graham - StatFox
Published: 2/21/2016  at  5:12:00 AM
  Print This Article    

MICHIGAN WOLVERINES (19-8, 9-5 Big Ten)

at MARYLAND TERRAPINS (22-5, 10-4 Big Ten)

XFINITY Center - College Park, MD
Tip-off: Sunday, 1:00 pm ET
Line: Maryland -9, Total: 140

Slumping No. 6 Maryland looks to end a two-game losing skid when it hosts Michigan on Sunday afternoon.

The Wolverines (13-12 ATS overall) have also struggled lately with three losses in their past five games, including a 76-66 defeat at rival Ohio State on Tuesday. They have also been a poor wager recently with a 3-7 ATS mark in their past 10 contests. The Terrapins (11-13 ATS overall) have dropped two straight games as heavy favorites, first falling 70-57 at home to 8.5-point underdog Wisconsin on Feb. 13 and then losing 68-63 at 10-point underdog Minnesota on Thursday. Their offense has failed to reach 75 points in each of the past eight conference games, making the Under 8-0 in these contests. These schools are meeting for just the third time since Maryland joined the Big Ten, and both home teams have prevailed in these matchups. This includes a 70-67 Michigan win on Jan. 12 when it made 12-of-29 threes and held its opponent to 6-of-24 from beyond the arc. There are plenty of betting trends for either side, as the Wolverines are 49-26 ATS when coming off a conference loss under head coach John Beilein, and underdogs in games involving two great foul shooting teams (73%+ FT) with 14.5 or less TOPG, facing a team with 14.5 or less forced TOPG, are 148-87 ATS (63%) in the past five seasons. However, the Terrapins are 30-16 ATS after an SU loss under head coach Mark Turgeon, and favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points revenging a same-season loss versus an opponent, off an upset loss as a road favorite, are 116-69 ATS (63%) since 1997. Michigan star G Caris LeVert (16.5 PPG) is doubtful for Sunday with a knee injury.

Will Maryland get back in the win column with a sizable victory on Sunday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the StatFox Experts Best Bets throughout the season. The experts continue to flourish with a huge 66% ATS record (63-33-4) in the past four weeks, led by StatFox Dave at 74% ATS (14-5-1) and StatFox Zach going 68% ATS (13-6-1) over this timeframe. StatFox Brian has been on fire for two months, with a stellar 66% ATS record (29-15-1) in the past nine weeks. StatFox Gary is also sizzling, going 68% ATS (23-11-1) over the past seven weeks, and StatFox Scott is a strong 58% ATS (19-14-2) in this same timeframe.

Michigan scores a pedestrian 76.0 PPG this season, but shoots an excellent 48% FG and 40% threes. The Wolverines love trying their luck from long range with 10.1 made threes per game, and also know how to protect the basketball with a mere 9.6 turnovers per game and a stellar 1.57 Ast/TO ratio, both of which rank among the top-10 teams in the nation. The defense is also top-notch, holding opponents to 66.3 PPG despite allowing a pedestrian 44% FG and 35% threes. Michigan doesn't record many steals (5.6 SPG) or blocks (2.2 BPG), but it also plays clean with a paltry 15.7 personal fouls per game, which is among the fewest in Division-I. Rebounding could be a problem on Tuesday though, as the Wolverines hold an even 0.0 RPG margin. With leading scorer G Caris LeVert (16.5 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 4.9 APG) missing so much time, three players have picked up the slack in replacing his points. Junior G Derrick Walton Jr. (12.1 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 3.9 APG, 1.6 SPG) is shooting a career-best 42% threes this season, but has made only 1-of-13 threes in the past two contests. Walton has four double-doubles this season, including 12 points and 10 rebounds in the win over the Terrapins last month. Junior F/G Zak Irvin (11.5 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 3.2 APG) has scored at least 15 points in five of the past six games including a season-high-tying 22 points last Saturday versus Purdue. Irvin also scored 22 points versus Maryland on Jan. 12, when he made 8-of-14 shots and 3-of-7 threes. Sophomore G Duncan Robinson (11.5 PPG, 3.1 RPG) is shooting an impressive 48% FG, 47% threes and 96% FT (27-of-28) this season, but has scored four points or less in three of the past four games. However, Robinson had a big offensive game in the win over Maryland on Jan. 12 with 17 points on 6-of-10 FG and 5-of-9 threes.

Maryland has a high-scoring offense (75.7 PPG) that shoots very well from the floor with 49% FG (36% threes) and connects on an excellent 76% FT. Turnovers are a bit high (13.1 TOPG), but this team rebounds well (+4.3 RPG margin) and dishes out a solid 14.0 assists per game. The Terrapins defense is also top-notch with 64.3 PPG allowed on 40% FG and 31% threes. A paltry 5.8 steals per game leads to a mere 11.1 forced turnovers per contest, but the Terrapins block 5.7 shots per game and commit only 16.7 fouls per game. Senior G Melo Trimble (14.0 PPG, 5.3 APG, 3.1 RPG, 1.2 SPG) is a talented playmaker with a 2.0 Assist/TO ratio and shooting percentages of 43% FG, 34% threes and 86% FT. But he has played poorly during the team's two-game losing skid where he has made only 4-of-25 FG with nearly as many turnovers (11) as assists (12). Trimble also struggled versus Michigan in the Jan. 12 loss with two points on 1-of-7 FG, three assists and four turnovers. Both C Diamond Stone (12.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 1.7 BPG) and F Robert Carter (12.5 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 1.4 BPG) shoot close to the basket, resulting in 57% FG and 56% FG, respectively. Stone, a 6-foot-11 freshman, was suspended for Thursday's loss, but still has a streak of five straight double-figure scoring games. He has tallied double-doubles four times this season, including 22 points and 11 boards at Michigan last month. The junior Carter scored 15 points in that defeat, but grabbed a season-low-tying three rebounds. He has been more ferocious on the boards recently with at least seven rebounds in four straight games. The other double-digit scorers are F Jake Layman (10.3 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 1.1 SPG) and G Rasheed Sulaimon (12.0 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 3.3 APG, 1.1 SPG) who make 47% FG and 49% FG, respectively, with Layman at 35% threes and Sulaimon knocking down a team-high 47% threes. But while Layman recorded a double-double of 18 points (7-of-10 FG) and 10 rebounds in the defeat at Ann Arbor on Jan. 12, Sulaimon struggled with eight points on 3-of-10 FG and 2-of-6 threes.


FoxSheets.com
The FoxSheets - the most advanced sports handicapping information available on the internet.
Sign up for professional sports betting information including fantastic trends, and Free FoxSheets.
E-mail: